Rob's Lobs

[Rob]

Another Update in the Wake of Market Weakness

Pretty lousy overall performance so far on that scan, but considering how awful the whole market's been over the past couple weeks, perhaps some “suckiness” is to be expected.

Great day in the mornin'! Look at what's happened to TSCM since the previous update on 12/30!

Hey! If you haven't thrown down on the amazing, mind-blowing Pick O' The Week contest yet, you should consider it. And even if you don't, you could at least follow it. Besides the stock picks and colorful charts, each day has little nuggets from the day's news and carefully selected photos of some very handsome persons of the fairer sex. For example: Paula Abdul, Gina Lollobrigida, an unknown, olive-skinned beauty, Julie London, Julia Roberts, Megan Fox and Victoria Beckham, Jenna-Louise Coleman, Penelope Cruz and another unknown beauty, and last but definitely not least, Sarah Mendly. Stunning. Just stunning.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
I see you also like NE. My son has had it for 6 months, it has split 2/1 and has usually stayed in positive territory but overall only up 3.3% for him. Still waiting for the big move. It consistently ranks high fundamentally and technically. He bought 14 shares. With split and reinvesting dividends he now has 28.043 in his Roth. Wish Roth had been invented when I was his age.

--------------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Rob,
I see you also like NE. My son has had it for 6 months, it has split 2/1 and has usually stayed in positive territory but overall only up 3.3% for him. Still waiting for the big move. It consistently ranks high fundamentally and technically. He bought 14 shares. With split and reinvesting dividends he now has 28.043 in his Roth. Wish Roth had been invented when I was his age.

--------------billyjoe

We never had kids so I wasn't able to do anything like what you have done for yours. He's a lucky kid to have your influence and guidance.

[Rob]

. . . it has split 2/1 and has usually stayed in positive territory but overall only up 3.3% for him. Still waiting for the big move.

Ancient Chinese proverb say: "Patience is power; with time and patience the mulberry leaf becomes a silk gown."

[Rob]

Are You Scared?

This morning we see the Asian markets down in the -5% to -7% neighborhood and the DOW futures about 500 pts. below fair value. So ... are you scared? Many are.

The question in my mind is: is this the capitulation day? It may very well be. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the day ends up with the markets on the up side. I'm sort of hearing CNBC in the background right now, and I thought I heard them say the Fed may knock 75 basis points off the funds rate. If that happens, then I'd be surprised if the market doesn't gain ground today.

We shall see.

[Rob]

Here Are Some Marbles for Your Head ...

... let 'em roll around in there fer a spell, and see what sort of sound they make.

So what's the deal with First Marblehead (FMD)?

(Marketwire, Jan 14) The First Marblehead Corporation (NYSE: FMD) today announced that it will release its financial and operating results for the three-month period ended December 31, 2007 after market close on Thursday, January 31, 2008. The Company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. EST that afternoon to discuss its results. Jack L. Kopnisky, Chief Executive Officer and President, and John A. Hupalo, Chief Financial Officer, will host the call.

Investors and other interested parties are invited to listen to the conference call by dialing (800) 573-4752 in the United States or (617) 224-4324 from abroad (pass code 41399597), or via a simultaneous internet broadcast on the Company's Web site at www.firstmarblehead.com, under Investors.

That call and the subsequent stock price could prove interesting.

[Rob]

. . . the Fed may knock 75 basis points off the funds rate. If that happens, then I'd be surprised if the market doesn't gain ground today.

Rob is predicting a positive close today on at least one—if not on all three—indices.

[Rob]

Thicket

Rob is predicting a positive close today on at least one—if not on all three—indices.

Another prediction bites the dust. But if you consider that the DJIA closed 336 points off the low of the day, that could turn out to be the capitulation day. Unfortunately, the futures at the moment are about 200 points below fair value, indicating we aren't quite out of the woods yet. Pretty close, though, I think.

[mimo_100]

P & F chart

P & F chart bearish price objective at end of day 1/22/2008 was 11500.
Close was 11971 -- we are almost there.

[Rob]

Cool .......

............ nice double bottom, though the waters still might be a bit choppy.

[Rob]

Oh, NO!

Friday January 25, 7:27 am ET

Brewers Carlsberg and Heineken to Buy Scottish & Newcastle for $15.3 Billion

LONDON (AP) -- Brewers Carlsberg and Heineken will buy beermaker Scottish & Newcastle for $15.3 billion, the companies said Friday.

Scottish & Newcastle PLC, which rejected two earlier bids, agreed to an all-cash offer of 800 pence ($15.6 per share.

From the story it appears that Heineken is going to take control of Newcastle's British operations. Karel, tell your brewmaster pals over there in Amsterdam that if they take me favorite ale, Newcastle Brown, and ruin it, I'll never forgive them. They might say, "Please forgive us, Rob. We were only trying to make it better ... " and I will tell them, "I am disinclined to acquiesce to your request."

[Rob]

In my opinion, this puppy [IMCL] is cheeeeeeeap! If you don't want to hold it for the long term, fine. Buy it now at <38 and sell it at 44. Probably won't take all that long. [. . .] Don't be fooled by the recent price weakness. Don't be a schmuck.

Well it hit 44 a little earlier today and looks for all the world as though it will close higher. Had you listened to ol' Rob you could have made about 16% in 22 days. 'Nuff said?

p.s. It's going higher from here, dudes and dudettes.

[Rob]

Earnings This Week

66 stocks reporting Monday the 4th, 130 stocks reporting Tuesday the 5th, 137 stocks reporting Wednesday the 6th, 201 stocks reporting Thursday the 7th, 33 stocks reporting Friday the 8th, and the top 10% from each of these groups, all ranked best to worst by Rob's Quick 'n' Dirty Comparison Spreadsheet, plus one-year weekly charts of the 56 stocks in the last group.

"Where, Rob, where?"

Glad you asked. Here, of course.

And while you're checking out the lists and charts, pick a stock you like and play it in the colorful, breathtaking Pick o' the Week contest. You ... you ... YOU could be the next winner! (and help me dethrone Peanuts, who has won big the last 2 weeks in a row)

... and if that's not enough to motivate you, at least come on over to take a gander at Maria Bartiromo posing in a lovely, black, strapless evening gown.

[Rob]

What the Oncs Are Saying About ImClone's Erbitux in Lung Cancer

Survival Benefit in Another Erbitux Trial for Advanced NSCLC Reported

. . . Specifically, we heard that the BMS-099 that I described in a prior post is actually demonstrating a significant benefit in overall survival (OS). . . .

. . . We haven’t received any details about [the FLEX] trial, either, but as a reflection of the importance of a positive large randomized trial in first line treatment of advanced NSCLC, it’s penciled in to be presented at the ASCO Plenary Session, where the most important cancer trials of the meeting are discussed. . . .

. . . Coming in the wake of the reported absence of a survival benefit for avastin in the first line AVAiL trial . . . I think it’s quite likely that our views of current “best” treatment, or standard of care, will continue to develop for first line treatment of advanced NSCLC. . . .

. . . so chemo/erbitux may be a clear best choice for these populations . . .

[Rob]

Our Loss Is Your Gain

Holy hedge fund, Rob! Are you telling me that I can start out in your contest in 3rd place? That's, like, totally unheard of!

That's right, Clyde! The way my contest is run, newcomers to the game get the same amount of money as if they had started at the beginning of the year and lost ½% each week. And due to the weakness of the market in the first quarter this year—not to mention the less-than-spectacular performance of most of the players so far—only two can lay claim to having done better than losing a half of a percentage point each week this year.

So, come on, Clyde! What are ya waitin' for? Are ya waitin' for your mommy to tuck you in? Grow up, ya big palooka! Quit lookin' this big, beautiful gift horse in the mouth, and click on the picture above to get going!