Rob's Lobs

[Rob]

St. Mary Land & Exploration (SM)

[peanuts]

Wow! Thanks for the head's up, Rob!

I like this on first glance, Rob. It has escaped all my screens some how. I must do further exploring on this, but from the surface, it looks like you've found a real winner! From your charts, it seems that these next 2 quarters should have the most amount of revenue, but the YOY comps will be tough to beat.

It's on my watchlist

[Rob]

The Power Of Compounding

Here's a thought: there are about 250 trading days in a year. Do you realize that if you could manage to gain 0.5% (one half of one percent) with one round trip each day, your gain for the year would be 247.95%?

Of course you would have to pay the broker. So let's allow $20 a day. ($5,000 for the year) If you started with $10,000, at the end of the year you would have $34,795 (- $5,000) or $29,795, a net gain of about 198%.

Sounds easy, don't it?

[spikefader]

Howdie Rob.
Thanks for another fine presentation dude. Your post prompted me to look at the technicals for SM. For me, the r/r favors short side at these levels. But good luck if you take it!

http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/08/16/sm-head-and-shoulders-on-the-weekly/

Regards,
Spike.
PS. I promise to focus on writing up the next picks of yours where I actually favor your bias!

[Rob]

Spike, I like your write-up. I have no bias on this one, and I probably will not be buying any ... unless it suddenly blows past the pivot on strong volume and I can catch it in time (the WON method).

However, I would like to offer this fundamental observaion: as sellers of oil *and* natural gas, these guys just may be having a couple good quarters ahead. Natural gas is used to generate electricity to run those A.C. units that were purring all through the recent heat wave, and then of course for heat in the cold months.

Remember how natural gas spiked to super high levels last year and then dropped off big time because it was a warm winter and there was an oversupply in the market? I'm guessing the gas companies will be more conservative in building up inventories this year to keep the price from plunging the way it did. Then if we get a really cold winter, these guys will clean up. Look at the fuzz on a woolly worm in late Oct.; if it has a lot of black on both ends, it'll be a long, rough winter—a buy signal for SM.

[spikefader]

Thanks for the headsup on the FA Rob. And I love the Fuzzy Worm! lol

EDIT: I just did channeling for the weekly chart of SM, and they do favor longs, with major expanding channel long in June, and now a channel turn up from the head that's still in progress this week. And if that weekly SHS fails, there's the good TA support for bullishness that you see potential of.

[Rob]

Parlux (PARL)

PARL is up about 27.5% on vol. of 4.6 million as I type.

[Runner]

Rob here is my read on EBAY’s chart FWIW:

Monthly longer-term trendline broke
Weekly displays bear flag or wedge for year 2005, sitting at support
Daily indicates serious downtrend in place. I won’t rule out a bounce into high 29’s or low 30’s. Good luck and I hope this thing does not hit the 16.00 area over the next several months. Now that all the negative news is out of the way. I do see some possible support off the weekly at current price levels. This support goes back to 2003. If current levels drop off here I’d be very cautious on the long side…

I’ll say bullish as long as this support holds if it drops out here I’d flip to bear on EBAY

Key=weekly support holding!!

Well what is in the cards for EBAY now? Rob my chart reading may have been off a few dollars. Next R-line I think is around 23.59

[Rob]

Ye Olde eBay Point & Figure Chart

eBay, Inc. (EBAY) Nasdaq Global Select Mkt.
17-Aug-2006, 16:00 ET, daily, O:25.93 H:27.76 L:25.74 C:27.67 V:36,510,790 Chg:1.85
Traditional, 3 box reversal chart
Bearish Price Obj. (Revised): 26.00 <----- Met

[FONT=Courier New][SIZE=1][U]  63.00 |                         |                               |                      | 63.00 [/U]
  62.00 |                         |                               |                      | 62.00 
  61.00 |                         |                               |                      | 61.00 
  60.00 |                         |                               |                      | 60.00 
  59.00 |                       X |                               |                      | 59.00 
[U]  58.00 |                       X [COLOR=#990033]1[/COLOR]                               |                      | 58.00 [/U]
  57.00 |                       [COLOR=#990033]C[/COLOR] O                               |                      | 57.00 
  56.00 |                       X O                               |                      | 56.00 
  55.00 |                       X O                               |                      | 55.00 
  54.00 |                       X O                               |                      | 54.00 
[U]  53.00 |                       X O                               |                      | 53.00 [/U]
  52.00 |                       X O                               |                      | 52.00 
  51.00 |                   X   X O                               |                      | 51.00 
  50.00 |                   X O X O                               |                      | 50.00 
  49.00 |                   X O [COLOR=#990033]B[/COLOR] O                               |                      | 49.00 
[U]  48.00 |                   X O   O                               | [COLOR=#ff0000]+[/COLOR]                    | 48.00 [/U]
  47.00 |       X       X   X     O                             X | X [COLOR=#ff0000]+[/COLOR]                  | 47.00 
  46.00 |       X [COLOR=#990033]7[/COLOR]     X O X     O                             X [COLOR=#990033]C[/COLOR] X O [COLOR=#ff0000]+[/COLOR]                | 46.00 
  45.00 |       [COLOR=#990033]6[/COLOR] O     X O [COLOR=#990033]A[/COLOR]     O                             X O X O   [COLOR=#ff0000]+[/COLOR]              | 45.00 
  44.00 |       X O     [COLOR=#990033]9[/COLOR] O       O X               X           X O X O     [COLOR=#ff0000]+[/COLOR]            | 44.00 
[U]  43.00 |       X O     X         O X O X           [COLOR=#990033]8[/COLOR] O         X [COLOR=#990033]1[/COLOR]   O       [COLOR=#ff0000]+[/COLOR]          | 43.00 [/U]
  42.00 |   X   X O     X         O X O X [COLOR=#990033]3[/COLOR]         X O [COLOR=#990033]A[/COLOR]   X   X |   [COLOR=#990033]2[/COLOR]         [COLOR=#ff0000]+[/COLOR]        | 42.00 
  41.00 |   X [COLOR=#990033]5[/COLOR] X O     X         O   O X O         X O X O X O X |   O                  | 41.00 
  40.00 |   X O X O X   X         |   O X O     X   X O X O X O X | [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR] O X                | 40.00 
  39.00 |   X O   O X [COLOR=#990033]8[/COLOR] X         |   [COLOR=#990033]2[/COLOR] X O     [COLOR=#990033]6[/COLOR] O X O X O   O [COLOR=#990033]B[/COLOR] [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]   O X O              | 39.00 
[U]  38.00 |   X     O X O X         |   O   O X   X O X [COLOR=#990033]9[/COLOR] X     O [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR] |   [COLOR=#990033]3[/COLOR] [COLOR=#990033]4[/COLOR] O              | 38.00 [/U]
  37.00 |   X     O X O           |       O X [COLOR=#990033]4[/COLOR] X O X O       [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]   |   O   O              | 37.00 
  36.00 |   X     O               |       O X O X O X       [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]     |       O              | 36.00 
  35.00 | O X                     |       O   O X O X     [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]       |       O              | 35.00 
  34.00 | O [COLOR=#990033]4[/COLOR]                     |           O X O [COLOR=#990033]7[/COLOR]   [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]         |       O X            | 34.00 
[U]  33.00 | O                       |           O X O   [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]           |       [COLOR=#990033]5[/COLOR] X [COLOR=#990033]6[/COLOR]          | 33.00 [/U]
  32.00 |                         |           O [COLOR=#990033]5[/COLOR]   [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]             |       O X O          | 32.00 
  31.00 |                         |           O   [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]               |       O X O          | 31.00 
  30.00 |                         |             [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                 |       O X O          | 30.00 
  29.00 |                         |           [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                   |       O   O          | 29.00 
[U]  28.00 |                         |         [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                     |           [COLOR=#990033]7[/COLOR]          | 28.00 [/U]
  27.00 |                         |       [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                       |           O [COLOR=#00aa00]X[/COLOR]        | [COLOR=#aa0033]27.00<[/COLOR]
  26.00 |                         |     [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                         |           O [COLOR=#00aa00]X[/COLOR]        | [COLOR=#ff0000]26.00 PO[/COLOR]
  25.00 |                         |   [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                           |           O [COLOR=#00aa00]X[/COLOR]        | 25.00 
  24.00 |                         | [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                             |           O [COLOR=#00aa00]X[/COLOR]        | 24.00 
[U]  23.00 |                         [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]                               |           [COLOR=#990033]8[/COLOR]          | 23.00 [/U]
  22.00 |                       [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR] |                               |                      | 22.00 
  21.00 |                     [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]   |                               |                      | 21.00 
  20.00 |                   [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]     |                               |                      | 20.00 
  19.50 |                 [COLOR=#0000ff]+[/COLOR]       |                               |                      | 19.50 
                                  05                              06[/SIZE][/FONT]

[Runner]

Rob, you da man. I was looking off the wrong chart….haha

[Rob]

Building Materials Holding Co. (BMHC)

Building Materials Holding Co., based in San Francisco, belongs to (according to Yahoo) the Home Improvement Stores industry group, but apparently they mainly cater to building professionals rather than to the public. Through their two subsidiaries, they provide not only many custom building products, but also turn-key construction services.

Since it's so closely tied to the home building industry, perhaps that is why the share price has been beaten down so much recently. But check out the chart. The recent price and volume increases are due to buyout rumors. The P/E is a low, low 5.66. On the surface this looks like a good company. But I'll be honest, until this morning I'd never heard of them. As always proceed with caution! But this looks like it could be a winner short-term. Any add'l insights welcome.

[Rob]

Texas Instruments (TXN)

Check out the 5-year ascending triangle pattern on the Texas Instruments (TXN) chart:

[billyjoe]

Rob,
Just saw your BMHC post. Sold 3 times for nice gains in '05 then got nailed in late '05 for a 21.6% loss , overall did well. It started tanking a bit after the housing stocks and will do well in the future if you can wait that long. It must have split somewhere along the way cause I had it over 90 at one point.

------------billyjoe

[Rob]

It [BMHC] must have split somewhere along the way . . .

Splits:07-Mar-94 [3:2], 15-Mar-06 [2:1].

P/E is now 5.23 according to the Yahoo quote page.

[billyjoe]

Bmhc

Rob,
With pre-tax earnings at 24% and pre-tax ROC >25% I'd consider buying if I wasn't so impatient.

----------billyjoe