NFI - Oversold?? You betcha

[IIC]

I just got butchered...in at 5.32 and out at 5.02. I'll leave the day trading to the experts from now on, thank you very much

It happens...Not that I'm a daytrading expert...but I practiced on paper for over 6 months before I made my first (well, I had made a few here and there over the years) daytrade...I'm not a big advocate of paper trading because you always seem to do better on paper but I did it anyway...then when I felt ready I started out with smaller dollars and worked up as I got experience...However, I never worked up to the amounts I sometimes invest in longer holds.

But just remember...especially in daytrading...they're waiting to suck you in and spit you out...and sometimes they get away with it...But overall, I've found it is quite profitable percentage wise....Doug

[skiracer]

I still think it is to volitaile to be able to rely on any wave count right now. Some pretty wide swings today to end the day right in that area where I put my stop at 4.95. There's a big amount of buying volume right at that area as support and I think it closed right at that level because of that. I wouldn't count on anything tomorrow but I have a feeling that it goes up from here rather than down. I would be watching it real close at the open tomorrow morning but wouldn't be counting on anything. It could go either way. I still think it is pretty much oversold and like it to the long side rather than short from here.

[New-born baby]

BUY! NFI is going up. If it clears $7.50 area, it targets the $15 I said earlier. It is making an inverted head and shoulders, and the volume move North should be powerful. I can't figure out why MM sold his shares . . . today's candle screams BULL! for Wednesday.

[Karel]

Frankly, anyone who buys a 1 down ......
SssSssSss

But I guess there are plenty of people who thing fuzzy counts are just plain dumb and not worth taking into consideration.

Fuzzy roadmap: [...]

Thanks Spike, nice to know there are people smarter than me I appreciate your comments, and I'll try to factor in your roadmap.

I still think it is to volitaile to be able to rely on any wave count right now. Some pretty wide swings today to end the day right in that area where I put my stop at 4.95. There's a big amount of buying volume right at that area as support and I think it closed right at that level because of that. I wouldn't count on anything tomorrow but I have a feeling that it goes up from here rather than down. I would be watching it real close at the open tomorrow morning but wouldn't be counting on anything. It could go either way. I still think it is pretty much oversold and like it to the long side rather than short from here.

Ski, I think I am mostly with you here, especially the "I wouldn't count on anything tomorrow" and the "I like it to the long side" part.

BUY! NFI is going up. If it clears $7.50 area, it targets the $15 I said earlier. It is making an inverted head and shoulders, and the volume move North should be powerful. I can't figure out why MM sold his shares . . . today's candle screams BULL! for Wednesday.

NBB, I don't agree about this being a done deal. I think the candle screams UNDECISION?! but I do agree with the buy. MM probably sold because he saw this more as a day trade, and then you don't hold your shares overnight.

My own plan is medium term right now: I am waiting for the first dividend, if any. I will take profits when they come my way, and buy back in when the opportunity arises (that is where a roadmap may come in handy). I am not betting the bank on this, and I have decided when to take a loss.

Thank you all!

Karel

[New-born baby]

2 red crows and indicision candle

Karel,
Yes, today's candle spells indicision in and of itself; but if you consider the two red crows in front of it, it spells bull tomorrow.

[skiracer]

BUY! NFI is going up. If it clears $7.50 area, it targets the $15 I said earlier. It is making an inverted head and shoulders, and the volume move North should be powerful. I can't figure out why MM sold his shares . . . today's candle screams BULL! for Wednesday.

If it clears 7.50 range I would be ecstatic. Are you considering taking a position being that you are so enthusiastic on the stock? As I've said I like it to the long side but am not sure if it will go that way. Still watching closely.

[spikefader]

I still think it is to volatile to be able to rely on any wave count right now...

One could argue that impulsive price action is expressed through increased volatility.....perhaps increasing the reliability of wave counts.

It's been tracking a perfect bearish count since December....including the last 5 bearish days. The count calls for 2 up soon, and today's intraday price action forming an 'inside' day on the daily may be the catalyst for that impulsive 2 up. But frankly, the r/r isn't good enough to try and trade it. Long from current levels and stop under the inside day is over 5% risk....and 2 completion target of around $5.90 price resistance is 19%.....so r/r of 4. Some might think that's pretty good.

But is there any particular reason why the bearish count should suddenly terminate? And if not, then why not look to capture a short entry 2 completion to target 5 down? That's a lot better r/r.

[skiracer]

One could argue that impulsive price action is expressed through increased volatility.....perhaps increasing the reliability of wave counts.

It's been tracking a perfect bearish count since December....including the last 5 bearish days. The count calls for 2 up soon, and today's intraday price action forming an 'inside' day on the daily may be the catalyst for that impulsive 2 up. But frankly, the r/r isn't good enough to try and trade it. Long from current levels and stop under the inside day is over 5% risk....and 2 completion target of around $5.90 price resistance is 19%.....so r/r of 4. Some might think that's pretty good.

But is there any particular reason why the bearish count should suddenly terminate? And if not, then why not look to capture a short entry 2 completion to target 5 down? That's a lot better r/r.

Your take is as good as anyone's Spike. What makes me anxious on either side with this stock is that over the last few days it has not been able to show a trend to either side. It has kind of been knocking at the door on either side but no able to open it either way. It looks to me as it may have stalled out to the downside right here. I traded it the other day just on a hunch that I thought it was way oversold and had found a bottom. A pretty wide trading range today again. I would be open to a short play if it breaks that 4.75/4.80 range like the other day but it stopped right there and recouped. It would be easy for me to chase it being that it has me for $1100 from my trade the other day but I think it is to dangerous either way right now and I won't chase it.

[New-born baby]

Spike,
Would you care to put up a chart on NFI showing entry, targets, etc?

[spikefader]

Your take is as good as anyone's Spike. What makes me anxious on either side with this stock is that over the last few days it has not been able to show a trend to either side. It has kind of been knocking at the door on either side but no able to open it either way. It looks to me as it may have stalled out to the downside right here. I traded it the other day just on a hunch that I thought it was way oversold and had found a bottom. A pretty wide trading range today again. I would be open to a short play if it breaks that 4.75/4.80 range like the other day but it stopped right there and recouped. It would be easy for me to chase it being that it has me for $1100 from my trade the other day but I think it is to dangerous either way right now and I won't chase it.

Yer hunch on the stalled nature was pretty close t' the mark I think ski...and you were prolly just a bit early. You're a nimble trader from what I've witnessed o'er the years and well capable to snag the profit of a 2 up fer NFI......and maybe some green hope sees the count fail and bullish rocket from fuzzy C resistance failure and run to gap fills. I'd never presume to know that a count is going to happen or not....I've just made it a rule to respect a count until it's broken, but that's just me. Is the current 1 down over? We will see soon enough. I think the end of this month/quarter will provide some good technical info for long-term investors. I sure wouldn't be holding this one long overnight at this stage.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Would you care to put up a chart on NFI showing entry, targets, etc?

Sure thing, NB. Here's the count that I've got for it. I'd be lookin' to short into any strength from here (the 2 up) to the 5.80 to 6.00 zone, to risk a stop above the blue C. The target is 5 more waves down.....or even a medium-term hold for the ride to zip.

Now, for bulls, here's what I want to see to get bullish on it: a bullish rally above the blue C, for a new 1 up.....then a 2 down to buy into, to risk a stop under the C to target gap fill 17.00ish. Brilliant r/r should that setup present itself.

Either way, there's a setup for NFI. And the setup to trade will depend on the price action it offers. Remember the golden and simple observation that resistance is resistance until it isn't. Like I said while the C was forming, that C is the pivotal and crucial area. Bias should be alloted depending on where price is relative to that C. Personally, I think buying with current TA is a bad idea. Alternatively, should price get above C, I think shorting is a bad idea.

[skiracer]

Great chart Spike. Thanks for posting it. When the charts get gappy I start to get a little frustrated with my wave counts. Your count puts it into a better perspective for seeing the plays to either side if they develope. Nice chart and thanks. I would be suseptible to making that play on the 2nd wave up here. Might get 5.50/6 out of it from here.

[New-born baby]

Volume dropped off the table today. No volume

[jiesen]

Volume dropped off the table today. No volume

maybe they're waiting this time for that 400k spike in volume that happens just before noon every day this week so far.

who's doing that? will they stop it?

[jiesen]

posting from IV's NFI board

Here's a great post in response to Cramer's NFI bashing today:

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4148&pt=msg&mid=1815697

By: objectiveguy111 Posted as a reply to msg 56013 by oldmanknows
Re: Cramer bashes Novastar again

What is NovaStar supposed to say? Provide a daily update on liquidity?

I'm no fan of NovaStar IR. They are subpar at best in constructing press releases.

They aren't dummies, however. The more you say, the more for which you may be sued. They put out quarterly earnings releases and short blurbs if they securitize. They let the facts speak for themselves in monthly production reports and bond investor reports.

You can talk yourself into a lot of trouble. Ask Impac, in 2004. Ask New Century, today.

Jim Cramer could learn from NovaStar when it comes to keeping his bluster to a minimum. Does NovaStar have YouTube videos circulating about it breaking federal securities laws?

Stop throwing stones when you live in a very unattractive glass house, Jimbo. Boo-yuck.