Trolling For The Whoppers

[riverbabe]

River,
2 whoppers, I hope, EMC and NYX, NYX after a long wait.

----------------billyjoe

Good luck billyjoe. I'm in DO, BUCY (good report last night), PCP (waiting with the huge one for 15%), Pete's NLIA.pk, and OFG (watching chart).
Sold ICE (nice profit, looking to get back in) and NMX (very sleepy).

[Peter Hansen]

OIL AND AU are HOT Look at BQI

River (BQI ) OIL SANDS Looks Good I just took a small position in it.

[riverbabe]

River (BQI ) OIL SANDS Looks Good I just took a small position in it.

Wow Pete. What a great gain you got there yesterday! How did you find this one?

[billyjoe]

River,
Today I bought my "peter pan" stock DAR (Darling Intl.) and hope to sell it for ever so much more than 10.

---------------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

Dar

Wow Billyjoe, I can see why! Looks like it might be in a new 1 up. Met a little resistance at the 20 dma. Best of luck to you!

[riverbabe]

This week's market

Decided to take some profits while they lasted this week! Threw back some whoppers:
Sold OFG - 5.4% loss
Sold BUCY + 7.1% gain
Stopped out PED - 5.9% loss
Sold ASTI + 6.9% gain
Covered ORCL short + 5.4% gain
Sold CPST - 7.8% loss
Sold CDE + 1.1% gain

Currently still holding
DO from 112.55 (av)
FSLR from 225.31
PCP from 138.77
FEED (don't even ask)
NLIA.PK (don't even ask)

Calls holding:
EOG Nov 85 call @ 3.91
CNQ Dec 80 call @ 6.30

[Peter Hansen]

River sorry About NLIA

River I sold NLIA awhile back for a slight loss......decided that since it was just laying there ..........I dumped it.

I do think ASTI may be a buy right now......look at this chart ....MAY Bounce off of its 20 EMA......What do you think ......If it rises on Monday ......I may buy it.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/print/print.asp?sid=2392889&symb=asti&time=6&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=&ma=&maval=&uf=&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=&size=&country=us&o_symb=&startdate=&enddate=&style=320&backurl=%2Fquickchart%2Fquickchart.asp&prms=qcd&default=false&originalstyle=320&originalurl=%2Fquickchart%2Fquickchart.asp%3Fframes%3D0%26symb%3Dasti%26unused%3D0%26o_symb%3Dasti%26freq%3D1%26time%3D6%26style%3D320%26default%3Dtrue%26backurl%3D%252Fquickchart%252Fquickchart%252Easp%26prms%3Dqcd%26sid%3D2392889

[riverbabe]

River I sold NLIA awhile back for a slight loss......decided that since it was just laying there ..........I dumped it.

I do think ASTI may be a buy right now......look at this chart ....MAY Bounce off of its 20 EMA......What do you think ......If it rises on Monday ......I may buy it.

Pete, I see ASTI sitting on its 20 dma. But I am already pretty invested in FSLR. If solar stocks continue upward momentum, I should be okay. If that happens I may trade FSLR for ASTI (less risk/reward), so I'll be watching carefully.

Don't feel bad for me. You did the right thing with NLIA. A long time ago I rode SIRI down too, having faith it would come back, and I eventually made a double. I think you were right about the big time investors in NLIA. Maybe it's a possible buyout, or maybe they're all altruistic. (Now that's an oxymoron.) BUT BUT BUT in the meantime, it's dead money. If the market does a short term bounce, I am seriously considering taking the loss and putting the remainder into a momentum stock to try to recover it. But I won't recognize the loss until that happens. (Spike is probably laughing his head off -- and calling me an idiotic landlubber. And often I am, Spike. None of us is perfect, right?) River

[billyjoe]

River,
Although it's not a whopper, F seems to be a possible money maker at 7.88. The chart shows several dips below 8 with a nice gain to follow. It's worked well for me in the past. What do your charts say? Also I think there's a great possibility that we'll all be kicking each other in the future for not buying MSFT at this level. Gates ain't no dummy.

-----------billyjoe

[mimo_100]

River,
Although it's not a whopper, F seems to be a possible money maker at 7.88. The chart shows several dips below 8 with a nice gain to follow. It's worked well for me in the past. What do your charts say? Also I think there's a great possibility that we'll all be kicking each other in the future for not buying MSFT at this level. Gates ain't no dummy.

-----------billyjoe

If your are familiar with the BMW method, when F was at $8.20, the avg CAGR was 16.1% and the Current CAGR was 10.1%. The return factor was 5.1, meaning that if F reverted to its avg CAGR, then you would realize a 510% appreciation. The RMS was -2.58, meaning that the price was more than two standard deviations from its mean. You are correct that this issue is way below its historical price. However, where is the stock the fundamentally?

[billyjoe]

mimo,
The fundies are not good unless compared to GM. Ford credit still is making money while GMAC went down the toilet. What's with that? Maybe I'm viewing F's value as if it were liquidated. How low could it possibly go? Bought it at 6.90 a few years ago. The Ford family has a monster chunk of the company and it's not about to become a penny stock.

--------------billyjoe

[mimo_100]

mimo,
The fundies are not good unless compared to GM. Ford credit still is making money while GMAC went down the toilet. What's with that? Maybe I'm viewing F's value as if it were liquidated. How low could it possibly go? Bought it at 6.90 a few years ago. The Ford family has a monster chunk of the company and it's not about to become a penny stock.

--------------billyjoe

All good points, billyjoe. Perhaps buying calls would be a good way to play
this issue. What do you think?

[riverbabe]

A long answer to a short question

River,
Although it's not a whopper, F seems to be a possible money maker at 7.88. The chart shows several dips below 8 with a nice gain to follow. It's worked well for me in the past. What do your charts say? Also I think there's a great possibility that we'll all be kicking each other in the future for not buying MSFT at this level. Gates ain't no dummy.

-----------billyjoe

billyjoe, the chart of F does not look enticing to me right now. Looks like it is in a 1 down or a 3 down (Elliott wave) and going lower in the short run. But I just had a long telephone chat with Mimo about this BMW method (which I had not ever heard of) and learned a lot! It is named after Motley Fool user "BuildMWell." This is the link: http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/

It a pretty good predictor over a very long term. If you're prepared to hold over years, you should eventually come out ahead on F, but there's nothing to say that it won't go further down in the short term. And it has MSFT as undervalued right now too compared to its long term potential. (Use the table, click on the 16 year, scroll way down to the end, click on MSFT and see where it is compared to its av. CAGR line. But the stock would have to move + or - 2 standard deviations from there to give you the good return. Actually MSFT would currently have to be greater than -2 standard deviations below that line. That would be the buy point for a long term long hold.)

I would tend to agree with Tim. Buying options might be a better play if you don't want dead money. And, darn it all, CDs are looking pretty good to me right now. I'm really worried about this market going down down down for a long time to come. Am trying to extricate myself from my longs a little more on every bounce. My plan is to keep enough cash to play some shorts and some options, but put the rest safely away for a while.

I know that didn't answer your questions exactly. River

[riverbabe]

Time to update

Have been remiss in not keeping this thread updated, so these are my current holdings in my "play money" account. (It's got a fair number of $$$ in it to have the most fun.)

DELL (yesterday) from 24.10 -- currently 24.09
DO from 112.55 -- currently 119.12 (+5.80%)
FSLR from 225.31 -- currently 222.77 but sold Dec. 230 call for 9.40 premium.
GME from 54.17 -- currently 58.23 (+7.46%)
PCP from 138.77 (with MrM) -- currently 150.42 (+8.34%) but sold Dec 150 call for 4.70.
VIP (today) from 35.88 -- currently 36.68 (+2.26)

Riverbabe

[billyjoe]

River,
Do you give free stock tips to boy friends? Don't tell Mrs. billyjoe I asked.

------------billyjoe