IIC's Winners Watchlists

[IIC]

Friday's MoMo:

DCAI TONS MIKR LSCP ANTP ANGO LAN MDKI OS MANC TIV BOSC ESC AKS MFRI SVNX TDSC ASY TELOZ SIM CTHR MRGO ZICA WGAT NRPH EZPW TLL ISIG CMKG RMI

[IIC]

Here are the Best and Worst performing Dow Jones Industry Indices for 2004

Note: There are over 1,000 Dow Indices...This only represents the Major Industry Indices which I have listed below.

10 Best Performing Industries 
Industry Name Percent Change 
 
DJ Mining Index (US) 97.15% 
 
 
DJ Consumer Electronics Index (US) 73.82% 
 
 
DJ Steel Index (US) 66.21% 
 
 
DJ Internet Services Index (US) 60.83% 
 
 
DJ Coal Index (US) 57.64% 
 
 
DJ Lodging Index (US) 44.86% 
 
 
DJ Trucking Index (US) 44.40% 
 
 
DJ Wireless Communications Index (U... 43.84% 
 
 
DJ Tires Index (US) 40.60% 
 
 
DJ Oil Companies, Secondary Index... 40.45% 
 
 
 
 
10 Worst Performing Industries 
Industry Name Percent Change 
 
DJ Semiconductors Index (US) -21.65% 
 
 
DJ Aluminum Index (US) -16.82% 
 
 
DJ Automobile Manufacturers Index... -16.08% 
 
 
DJ Pharmaceuticals Index (US) -10.20% 
 
 
DJ Biotechnology Index (US) -10.03% 
 
 
DJ Precious Metals Index (US) -8.46% 
 
 
DJ Electric Components & Equipment... -7.87% 
 
 
DJ Airlines Index (US) -6.61% 
 
 
DJ Automobiles Index (US) -6.30% 
 
 
DJ Soft Drinks Index (US) -5.11%
 
Total List:
 
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Producers
Exploration & Production
Integrated Oil & Gas
Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution
Oil Equipment & Services
Pipelines
Basic Materials
Chemicals
Commodity Chemicals
Specialty Chemicals
Basic Resources
Forestry & Paper
Forestry
Paper
Industrial Metals
Aluminum
Nonferrous Metals
Steel
Mining
Coal
Diamonds & Gemstones
General Mining
Gold Mining
Platinum & Precious Metals
Industrials
Construction & Materials
Building Materials & Fixtures
Heavy Construction
Industrial Goods & Services
Aerospace
Defense
General Industrials
Containers & Packaging
Diversified Industrials
Electronic & Electrical Equipment
Electrical Components & Equipment
Electronic Equipment
Industrial Engineering
Commercial Vehicles & Trucks
Industrial Machinery
Industrial Transportation
Delivery Services
Marine Transportation
Railroads
Transportation Services
Trucking
Support Services
Business Support Services
Business Training & Employment Agencies
Financial Administration
Industrial Suppliers
Waste & Disposal Services
Consumer Goods
Automobiles & Parts
Automobiles
Auto Parts
Tires
Food & Beverage
Beverages
Brewers
Distillers & Vintners
Soft Drinks
Food Producers
Farming & Fishing
Food Products
Personal & Household Goods
Household Goods
Durable Household Products
Nondurable Household Products
Furnishings
Home Construction
Leisure Goods
Consumer Electronics
Recreational Products
Toys
Personal Goods
Clothing & Accessories
Footwear
Personal Products
Tobacco
Health Care
Health Care Equipment & Services
Health Care Providers
Medical Equipment
Medical Supplies
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Biotechnology
Pharmaceuticals
Consumer Services
Food & Drug Retailers
Drug Retailers
Food Retailers & Wholesalers
General Retailers
Apparel Retailers
Broadline Retailers
Home Improvement Retailers
Specialized Consumer Services
Specialty Retailers
Media
Broadcasting & Entertainment
Media Agencies
Publishing
Travel & Leisure
Airlines
Gambling
Hotels
Recreational Services
Restaurants & bars
Travel & Tourism
Telecommunications
Fixed Line Telecommunications
Mobile Telecommunications
Utilities
Electricity
Gas, Water & Multiutilities
Gas Distribution
Multiutilities
Water
Financials
Banks
Insurance
Nonlife Insurance
Full Line Insurance
Insurance Brokers
Property & Casualty Insurance
Reinsurance
Life Insurance
Financial Services
Real Estate Holding & Development
Real Estate Investment Trusts
General Finance
Asset Managers
Consumer Finance
Specialty Finance
Investment Services
Mortgage Finance
Investments
Equity Investment Instruments
Equity Investment Instruments
Nonequity Investment Instruments
Nonequity Investment Instruments
Technology
Software & Computer Services
Computer Services
Internet
Software
Technology Hardware & Equipment
Computer Hardware
Electronic Office Equipment
Semiconductors
Telecommunications Equipment

[IIC]

http://MrBreakout.com is updated. Please feel free to take a look. I have 2 SPECIAL free trial offers listed this week (no registration required) to Breakout123.com and HighVelocityStocks.com. I highly recommend that you check them out.

Best, Doug (IIC)

[IIC]

Top Stocks in Top Groups:

TONS ANTP ARLP INCX ENER KBAY IDSY ZEUS INOD ENWV MSGI HSVLY BOOM NSSC SBAC IIIN COGT TPTI METG GPIC PENN VRSN CNTY MIKN PACT FFIV JUPM ECST ADBL WYNN ABIX SNDS GSIC TASR OSTK PRVD ASEI MCRI SNDA NGPS GOOG TZOO

[IIC]

PreWatch: ANTP ELN ADSX HOFF NVDA YHOO ZMH RMBS ANGO MANC IOTN PACT

[IIC]

Today's MoMo:...Remember where you first saw DCAI and NGPS and PKOH and HA and NOVA and TRFDF and PRFT and WGAT and NIKU...Well, I guess...Oh nevermind...I missed most of them too...but I did catch the news on PRFT today!!!

RFIL DCAI BRN TRFDF PRFT NGPS ANTP NRPH TKF MANC CFCI WGAT PKOH FXEN AIQ MCHX ALG IPS MDKI ASY NIKU MFCO HA CAP SMXC DHIL SVNX HOFF CGM GRU NOVA IED

[Websman]

Do you think PRFT has anything left in it IIC?

[IIC]

Do you think PRFT has anything left in it IIC?

I really don't know...I saw the news(guidance)...I BOT...I Sold... and then I hit the road...Have not looked at anything yet tonite. BTW: I lost 18 c a sh on NTGR this morn too...but overall an UP Daytrade day...Think I'll call it a year...LOL

[IIC]

S/R for Tuesday

Nasdaq

Resistance

2247
2195-Weak

Support

2148-Weak
2135-VERY STRONG
2105-Weak
2066
2048-Weak
2025

QQQQ

Resistance

41.95
41.65-Very Weak
40.45
39.75-39.80-Strong

Support

39.20
39.05-Weak
38.55-38.60

[IIC]

From Today's LA Times


January 3, 2005


NEWS ANALYSIS
Wall St. Faces Skeptics
Some analysts expect disappointing gains in the next five years as they say stocks are again too expensive.


Times Headlines


STOCK MARKET INVESTORS INVESTMENTS ECONOMY


By Tom Petruno, Times Staff Writer


Stock investors made money for a second year in a row in 2004, as every major U.S. market index advanced.

Looking back five years, however, many people may find that their equity portfolios haven't yet made a dime in this decade. And some analysts contend that the next five years will be just as disappointing.

Indeed, the most heated debate among Wall Street pros these days is whether stocks' two-year rebound is the start of a sustainable bull market or merely a short-term bounce in an extended decline.

It isn't just an academic question: Millions of Americans who are saving for retirement, college expenses and other needs are counting on rising share prices over the next five to 10 years.

What's more, President Bush's plan to partially privatize Social Security may hinge on whether the stock market stays healthy.

Public support is considered crucial for any proposal that would tamper with Social Security. Without rising stock prices, "that would be the end of it," Barry Ritholtz, market strategist at brokerage Maxim Group in New York said of Bush's plan.

It has become an article of faith for Americans that equities are the best place to invest money for the long haul. That was reinforced in the 1980s and 1990s as stocks rose with relatively few interruptions. The blue-chip Standard & Poor's 500 index produced an average annualized return of 17.9% during those two decades.

But some market pessimists say those results were so good, they in effect stole returns from the future. The prices stocks hit in the 1990s, in other words, already reflected their potential well into the current decade, according to this view.

Steve Hochberg, chief analyst at Elliott Wave International, a Gainesville, Ga.-based financial advisor, contends that the market's dive from 2000 through 2002 — when the S&P 500 plunged 49%, the worst decline since the Great Depression — was the beginning of a long period of poor or negative results from U.S. shares.

The partial rebound in prices in 2003 and 2004 just revived the main argument against stocks, Hochberg said: They're too expensive relative to companies' underlying earnings and given the risks facing the market and the economy.

The average S&P 500 issue sells for about 18 times estimated 2004 operating earnings per share, according to Standard & Poor's in New York. Operating earnings exclude one-time gains or losses.

Shares were much more expensive at the market's peak in early 2000. Viewed historically, however, "stock valuations are too high" again, Hochberg said. "Bull markets just don't start from these levels."

Wall Street's continuing recovery last year reflected the strong U.S. economy and robust corporate earnings, analysts say. Tax cuts on dividend income and capital gains also have helped boost stocks' appeal; so have relatively low interest rates.

Yet the market faces a number of serious risks that ought to make investors wary of paying higher prices for shares, bearish analysts say.

The Federal Reserve, which began raising short-term interest rates in June, is expected to continue tightening credit this year. That poses a threat to economic growth and to corporate earnings, and provides competition for stocks in the form of higher yields on bonds and bank savings accounts.

Another worry is that the dollar's continuing slide — caused at least in part by the huge U.S. budget and trade deficits — could trigger an exodus of foreign investors from U.S. assets.

And then there are the wild cards of terrorism and a potentially worsening situation in Iraq.

Although Hochberg is among the most pessimistic market pros, and has been for years, the longer-term forecasts of some mainstream analysts also paint a picture of a market that could struggle to eke out gains between now and the end of the decade.

At brokerage Merrill Lynch & Co., Chief Market Analyst Richard McCabe in New York is warning clients that the Dow Jones industrial average might at best reach 11,500 by 2010.

The Dow ended Friday at 10,783.01, up 3.2% for the year after a 25.3% advance in 2003. If McCabe's forecast is on track, it would mean a mere 6.6% total price increase over five years for someone buying now.

If the market foils his prediction, it is more likely to be because share prices slump rather than soar to new heights, McCabe said. "If I had to pick between a big up surprise or a big down surprise for the market, I'd go with the latter," he said.

Brian J. Gladish, a 56-year-old software engineer from Long Beach, says he has been worried for a long time that the government's willingness to run up the budget and trade deficits would eventually trigger a crisis that would be ruinous for the U.S. stock market.

Most of his investments, he said, are limited to gold-mining stocks and foreign shares.

"I think we're in trouble with our economy," Gladish said. He has built up cash savings, but says he is "very nervous about allocating it to anything."

By contrast, many Americans believe stocks will continue to produce handsome gains. The average expected portfolio return over the next 12 months is 11.2%, according to a December survey of 800 investors by brokerage UBS in New York. And 69% of those surveyed said they expected to achieve their investment targets during the next five years.

"One of the things a long bull market does is make people believe they're entitled," said John Bollinger, head of Bollinger Capital Management in Manhattan Beach.

Like McCabe, Bollinger expects gains in major market indexes to be sub-par for an extended period. He thinks investors would react to weaker returns by gradually losing interest in stocks.

The sober outlook has history on its side: Long cycles of soaring share prices typically have been followed by long bouts of poor results.

For example, the Dow index rocketed from 175 in 1949 to nearly 1,000 by 1966, a 471% gain. But amid rising inflation and interest rates, the 1,000 mark then became a ceiling for the Dow for 16 years, from '66 to 1982.

There were bull and bear markets in that period, but a buy-and-hold investor in 1966 would have realized no net price gain in the Dow until 1982.

Investors who made big bets on stocks in the late 1990s may know that feeling.

Despite the rally of the last two years, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the technology-dominated Nasdaq composite index remain well below their peaks of early 2000. So the net return in five years has been negative.

Even including the last two years of the 1990s market boom, many investors have made little progress: A buy-and-hold investor in the S&P 500 index has earned an annualized average return of less than 5% a year since Dec. 31, 1997.

Wall Street optimists say blue-chip shares' weak performance since 1997 might be good news, because it could indicate that the market already has purged itself of most of the excesses of the boom years.

Some also say it's a mistake to focus too much on the past.

Ted Bridges, a principal at money management firm Bridges Investment Counsel in Omaha, said that as investors look to the future, they compare how the market might perform against the alternatives, including bonds, bank accounts and real estate.

And looking out five years, Bridges said, stocks are "as attractive as anything else out there."

What's more, people who invest on a regular basis, such as through 401(k) retirement plans, have made money on at least part of their portfolio this decade because they were buying as the market declined from 2000 through 2002, analysts note.

If the market falls again in the next few years, regular purchases of shares could pay off once prices recover again, in this decade or the next. And in the case of stocks that pay cash dividends, investors would be collecting that income along the way.

Bullish analysts also point out that, although many blue-chip and technology stocks have been hit hard since 2000, investors have earned hefty returns in this decade in small-company stocks, energy shares, financial-services stocks and real estate-related issues, among other market sectors.

"There's always a bull market somewhere," said Maxim Group's Ritholtz.

From a fundamental view, the stock market ultimately is a bet on an expanding economy and rising corporate earnings, both of which are still intact, said Robert Morris, director of equity investments at Lord Abbett & Co., a Jersey City, N.J.-based money manager.

"I don't see a force that is powerful enough to stop the body in motion," he said of the economy.

Like Bridges, Morris said stocks had to be viewed "relative to what else you can get for your money." Even mid-single-digit returns, he said, could beat the alternatives in the second half of this decade.

Duane Hove, a retired aerospace engineer from Manhattan Beach, is expecting more than that from stocks. He believes his portfolio can continue to generate double-digit returns, he said.

Although he lost money in the 2000-02 slump, he said he learned important lessons about paying more attention to what he owned.

The last two years have shown that "there are always opportunities in the market," said Hove, 60, who now writes history books. "I don't take the view that it can't come back."

[IIC]

IBD 100...FYI...Ran across this at 2 of the Forums I co-mod...IIC

http://www.istarquest.com/

[IIC]

Morning Watch: MDKI TCNO CHIR LPNT GENR INTZ ADLR SONC

[IIC]

FOMC minutes from the December 14th meeting issued today...3 weeks earlier than normal.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=an_WO.EsKXFA&refer=home

Still think mortgage rates will remain stable?...As I said 4-5 mos ago, and I still believe this, there will be a lot of foreclosures available in about a year...IIC

[billyjoe]

IIC, In my part of Ohio where automotive jobs are leaving or being replaced by lower paying temps, there are already record numbers of foreclosures. Two houses went for sheriffs sale on the same day on the small street I grew up on and two went earlier in 2004, the first in 50 years.
billyjoe

[IIC]

Today I was able to catch RMBS for 30 cents a sh and CURE for 3 cents a sh(missed the news by 2 mins or CURE coulda been a nice one). WITS was up, so overall I'm satisfied on a crumby market day...IIC