IIC's Winners Watchlists

**IIC** · 10-29-2006, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by billyjoe View Post

Doug,
It seems that a few months ago you were a little behind IBD . Now that you seem to be pulling away can you tell us if you somehow tweaked the parameters of the IIC 100 top 10? We know IBD wouldn't change even if it lead to their ruination.

---------billyjoe

No change in the parameters since I started in Oct. 2004...However, the IIC 100 is simply a starting point with an emphasis on current earnings and future projections...No backward looking stuff like IBD.

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 11:03 AM

Today's personal income report shows a healthy consumer sector - although some oil-related price effects have to be taken into account. Income growth is strong as is consumer spending in real terms. Personal income advanced 0.5 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent rise in August. The consensus had expected a 0.3 percent increase in personal income in September. Personal income is up 6.8 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 9.4 percent in August. Wages and salaries income posted a 0.5 percent boost in September, following a modest 0.2 percent gain in August.

Personal consumption rose only 0.1 percent in September, following a 0.2 percent increase in August. The consensus had expected a 0.2 percent rise in personal consumption for September. However, September's overall number was held back by sharply lower gasoline prices pulling down spending on nondurables. Nondurables fell 1.2 percent in September while durables jumped 1.6 percent and services rose 0.5 percent. In real terms (year 2000 chained dollars), personal consumption actually rebounded 0.4 percent in September, following a 0.1 percent decline in August. Back to nominal terms, personal consumption is up 5.5 percent year-on-year in September, compared to 6.0 percent in August. The personal savings rate rose to minus 0.2 percent in September from minus 0.5 percent in August.

Inflation numbers look good overall and the core deflator eased marginally after an uptick in August. The overall PCE deflator fell 0.3 percent in September, compared to a 0.3 percent boost in August. September's decline is the first since November 2005. Lower gasoline prices pulled the deflator down. The core PCE deflator posted a 0.2 percent increase in September, following a 0.3 percent rise in August. The consensus expected a 0.2 percent increase in the core PCE deflator for September. On a year-on-year basis, the core deflator is up 2.4 percent in September, compared to being up 2.5 percent in August.

Today's report contains data that was already included in last week's GDP report but shows generally favorable trends on the margin. Income is healthy and inflation has come down. The sticking point is that core inflation is still lagging - perhaps too much for the Fed's taste. Equities should like the moderately strong income growth but bonds may not like the fact that today's report will force the Fed to delay interest rate cuts. As such, the dollar will likely like today's report as U.S. rates may be more attractive.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income was up 0.3 percent in August, following a 0.5 percent jump in July. This report for September will contribute much to whether the economy is still on a soft landing and whether the Fed will lower interest rates anytime soon. It is a tricky balancing act for personal income to remain moderate and not slow too much. For the last report, the key wages and salaries component slowed sharply to a 0.1 percent increase in August. It actually might be good for the wages and salaries component to nudge up just a bit. However, average weekly earnings were soft in September and will likely translate to a very sluggish number for wages and salaries.

Personal consumption for August rose only 0.1 percent, following a 0.8 gain in July. More recently, retail sales fell 0.4 percent in September, based on weakness in autos and gasoline sales. So, we are likely to see a soft figure for durables outside of motor vehicles and nondurables within personal consumptions expenditures. Based on manufacturers sales numbers (a source not fully included in retail sales numbers), motor vehicles sales for September were up somewhat and should boost durables since these data do go into the personal consumption numbers.

With the latest FOMC meeting still on everyone's mind, a key focus of this report will be the core PCE deflator - the Fed's favorite inflation indicator. While we already have the quarterly figure from the GDP report, the personal income report will tell us how the core PCE deflator is on the margin. Both the overall PCE deflator and core PCE deflator rose 0.2 percent in August, following a 0.3 percent increase in July. The core PCE deflator, however, rose 0.2 percent in August, compared to 0.1 percent in July. On a year-on-year basis, the core deflator is up 2.5 percent, 0.2 percentage points higher from 2.3 percent in July.

Personal income Consensus Forecast for September 06: +0.3 percent
Range: +0.3 to +0.5 percent

Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for September 06: +0.2 percent
Range: -0.1 to +0.4 percent

Core PCE deflator Consensus Forecast for September 06: +0.2 percent
Range: +0.2 to +0.2 percent

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 11:38 AM

Bot SMSI 17.60's for dt

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by IIC View Post

Bot SMSI 17.60's for dt

peeled of some SMSI +.34

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 12:00 PM

At 11am EST:

Code:

Dow Jones Sector Indexes Winners And Losers
.
=============================================================================
                                       ----------- Percent Change -----------
    Sector                   Index   Daily   1 Wk.   1 Mo.   3 Mo.   1 Yr.
=============================================================================

Gold Mining                   93.24   1.77   -1.65  -10.65   -9.26   -0.13
General Mining              1361.56   1.30   10.88    9.62   23.77   36.58
Aerospace                    441.35   1.16    7.17    5.41    4.74   26.26
Defense                      122.99   1.15    2.37    4.55    8.03   18.11
Transportation Serv          190.80   1.15   12.48    9.22    2.39   35.86
Specialized Consumer Serv    671.72   0.96    6.74    7.30    1.13  -10.21
Airlines                     132.57   0.91   14.13    9.78    5.80   34.83
Insurance Brokers            104.43   0.84    8.25    9.58    6.97    4.81
Semiconductors              1199.18   0.78    2.77    5.04    4.86   -4.65
Forestry                     236.92   0.77    3.51   10.56    8.54   -5.69
Computer Hardware            503.52   0.77    9.15   11.52   15.11   14.21
Internet                     385.00   0.75   13.30   12.55   11.99   28.21
Drug Retailers               498.41   0.65   -9.94   -5.95    2.22    1.82
Electronic Office Equip      300.95   0.61    9.56   11.42   17.12   15.00
Delivery Serv                643.76   0.60    9.15    7.90   -2.03   24.57
Software                     589.42   0.56    9.28   10.18   24.26   12.59
Apparel Retailers            439.58   0.55   13.27   14.53   17.73   27.39
Clothing & Accessories       171.23   0.51   13.66   17.69   17.93   16.31
Paper                        150.40   0.47   -1.70   -1.64    7.28    2.99
Containers & Packaging       163.58   0.37    6.38    5.80   10.28   10.92
Specialty Finance            140.19   0.35    8.99   11.36   13.07   23.66
Nondurable Household Prod    480.53   0.34    3.71    6.36   15.89   14.83
Prop & Casualty Insurance    383.26   0.32    3.71    6.37    9.26   12.06
Financial Administration     113.45   0.31    5.56    7.22    3.10   11.74
Publishing                   303.51   0.29    9.13    9.25    6.84   -4.29
Restaurants & Bars           439.17   0.29   13.52   16.58   15.30   27.71
Diversified Industrials      465.96   0.28    5.34    5.43    4.16    3.67
Life Insurance               635.36   0.28    2.91    5.02    6.30   12.85
Asset Managers               134.74   0.28    5.55    5.57   16.06   31.09
Industrial Suppliers         121.61   0.27   11.83   11.42    2.91   16.74
Business Train/Employ Agnc   131.96   0.26   16.75    8.75   -1.21   17.13
Specialty Retailers          445.95   0.26   10.85   11.41    8.31   13.08
Steel                        294.12   0.22   23.61   14.09   14.46   74.64
Recreational Serv             87.54   0.18   12.23   19.66   16.00    0.40
Waste & Disposal Serv        106.47   0.16   11.73    8.60    7.79   28.17
Brewers                      325.10   0.15    0.87   -2.07    4.41    5.18
Soft Drinks                  301.15   0.15    1.48    2.92    6.98   10.56
Full Line Insurance          449.47   0.11    4.00    5.24   11.36   10.68
Business Support Serv        198.61   0.10    5.94    5.78    8.67   10.91
Computer Serv                 68.05   0.10   11.02   12.24   13.21   14.09
Water                        689.62   0.08   10.61    9.22   15.09  -10.50
Electronic Equip             194.35   0.07    9.57    8.04    8.02   16.63
Media Agencies               392.97   0.07    8.93    9.94   10.51    8.10
Trucking                     310.51   0.06    0.75   -4.90   -7.67   17.59
Home Construction            669.21   0.05    9.79    6.93    3.11  -31.44
Personal Prod                271.02   0.05    1.44    6.71    4.99   12.71
Medical Equip                470.47   0.05    3.39    4.20    0.78   -5.64
Industrial Machinery         205.15   0.03    6.21    2.87    0.22   13.73
Distillers & Vintners        125.26   0.03   -1.81    4.41    5.97    1.93
Reinsurance                  103.23   0.03    3.24    7.32   14.61    3.41
Specialty Chemicals          247.56   0.02    6.95    4.81   12.21   25.93
Banks                        552.55  -0.05    3.21    1.82    7.06   14.19
Home Improve Retailers        94.13  -0.06    6.83    5.12   -0.82   -6.53
Electricity                  179.77  -0.06    4.67    4.14   11.23    6.54
Travel & Tourism              83.97  -0.08    9.65    8.86   10.56  -10.58
Broadcast & Entertainment    451.27  -0.12   11.24   12.92   14.45   15.02
Consumer Finance             107.54  -0.12    7.72    7.23    2.14    6.19
Durable Household Prod       135.30  -0.13    4.20    8.76    6.67    6.95
Commercial Vehicles/Trucks   782.00  -0.14    5.34    2.39    0.59   23.21
Food Retailers/Whlslrs       219.37  -0.15    3.08    7.93   12.00    7.53
Elec Components & Equip      141.32  -0.16    7.07    4.20    5.63   18.72
Real Estate Holding & Dev    421.54  -0.16   14.04   18.95   18.17   34.25
Commodity Chemicals          212.23  -0.17   10.14    8.46    9.89    5.78
Real Estate Invstmt Trusts   130.88  -0.17    5.99    9.09   15.71   23.69
Tobacco                      274.88  -0.18   -1.94   -2.44   15.37   14.86
Medical Supplies             336.15  -0.23    2.85    4.70   13.86   11.79
Invstmt Serv                1160.55  -0.27   16.23   12.69   23.15   40.07
Footwear                     273.45  -0.28    9.70   16.80   10.76   14.27
Multiutilities               122.10  -0.29    5.27    5.81   11.25    6.09
Aluminum                     240.45  -0.30    4.09   -0.39   -4.14    8.11
Gas Distribution             116.80  -0.32    5.00    3.19   11.14    4.24
Mortgage Finance              91.15  -0.34   11.41   14.46   16.96   15.34
Hotels                       617.84  -0.40    5.05   10.90    3.66   22.32
Railroads                    412.54  -0.42   19.30   14.06    4.00   41.61
Pharmaceuticals              279.59  -0.42    3.32    4.99   13.21    9.22
Food Prod                    241.26  -0.45    4.08    3.69    7.54   13.33
Marine Transportation        312.58  -0.47    8.59    3.23    9.71    3.87
Auto Parts                   208.18  -0.49   14.54    8.68    6.06   -1.40
Platinum & Precious Metals    97.02  -0.56   31.05   11.96   -7.64   11.04
Biotechnology                474.04  -0.56    8.58    7.90   10.04    1.85
Pipelines                    460.26  -0.57    2.46   -0.28    5.06    8.22
Exploration & Production     439.51  -0.59   -8.73  -16.72   -8.93   -9.28
Building Matrls/Fxtures      330.30  -0.60    7.22    5.95    5.45   -0.90
Telecom Equip                679.86  -0.60    3.18    4.94    5.27    6.97
Automobiles                  197.92  -0.62    4.31    8.88   26.97    4.25
Heavy Construction           321.36  -0.63    1.02   -4.35    4.59   32.76
Gambling                     597.76  -0.73   10.58    9.25    6.01   26.68
Oil Equip & Serv             499.37  -0.87    6.94   -3.68   -3.71   17.50
Consumer Electronics         904.63  -0.91   28.37   17.70   18.92   24.93
Health Care Providers        496.51  -0.92   -5.30   -2.58    6.44   -1.40
Fixed Line Telecom           154.86  -0.97    6.93   10.59   19.69   37.46
Toys                         339.86  -1.01    9.58   12.22   29.72    0.25
Furnishings                  225.59  -1.05    2.49    4.19   -0.49   -2.87
Mobile Telecom               361.98  -1.16   11.01   11.72    0.27   -5.24
Integrated Oil & Gas         504.84  -1.18   24.49   14.99   32.32   22.58
Tires                         47.65  -1.20    0.96   26.32   18.40  -17.51
Recreational Prod            219.24  -1.21    9.44    9.48   -1.84   -8.09
Nonferrous Metals            394.00  -1.42   19.27   11.90   19.53   65.51
Broadline Retailers          367.64  -1.62    7.72   11.64    7.78   17.02
Coal                         266.55  -2.23   15.41   -8.30  -15.89   -9.31

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 12:04 PM

out the rest of SMSI...the avg was +.27

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 04:07 PM

If anyone is interested I called ICOC IR today. I talked to Kathy. She said they don't have a date set yet for their earnings announcement. But she said it would probably be early December...Doug(IIC)

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 04:33 PM

Got OMCL hi 19.20's

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 04:40 PM

Shoot me...Bot HSOA lo 5.50's

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 04:41 PM

I will sell OMCL and HSOA before the close

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 05:01 PM

HSOA +.10 OMCL +.09...better than losin'

**IIC** · 10-30-2006, 07:59 PM

Today's MoMo:

NVEC, SMSI, MFRI, BRR, AFOP, KKD, UCTT, AMIE, UUU, RAND, KONA, MIKR, OPY, HRZ

Little Charts:

http://trimurl.com/85J

NVEC
SMSI
MFRI
BRR
AFOP
KKD
UCTT
AMIE
UUU
RAND
KONA
MIKR
OPY
HRZ

**IIC** · 10-31-2006, 10:21 AM

Morning Movers:

RNAI CSCO NVAX SHPGY AAPL ANST GOOG BIDU BIIB COGO CELG ALNY ACTS NUAN NVDA RACK UAUA CYTR STEM IVAC

Upgraded this morning include:

MDZ, WMS, CEG, BRL, APCC, HRZ, STT, SFC, TSY, and KONA

Downgraded this morning include:

MCHX, VZ, ESLR, CACS, TSS, KSS, TZIX, MYL, NILE, CCU, ALEX, CCO, THC, ACN, CMA, KBAY, VCI, HHS, CAB, ACXM, BORL, YAVY, ECLP, SBL, PMTI, HRH, PRSP

**IIC** · 10-31-2006, 10:41 AM

S&P 500 To Add Celgene, Drop AmSouth Bancorp...that is CELG

**IIC** · 10-31-2006, 11:03 AM

At 10am EST

Code:

Dow Jones Sector Indexes Winners And Losers
.
=============================================================================
                                ----------- Percent Change -----------
    Sector                   Index   Daily   1 Wk.   1 Mo.   3 Mo.   1 Yr.
=============================================================================
Real Estate Holding & Dev    431.53   2.77  N/A      11.54   15.88   34.95
Recreational Prod            223.20   1.54  N/A       7.18    9.41    3.86
Brewers                      326.84   1.36  N/A       0.87   -0.76   15.70
Hotels                       631.00   1.08  N/A       6.70   13.53   31.14
General Mining              1361.56   1.05  N/A      12.32    9.64   21.04
Telecom Equip                691.34   1.04  N/A       0.31   16.87   14.56
Aluminum                     243.35   1.01  N/A       1.98   -2.85   20.18
Consumer Electronics         910.95   0.95  N/A      16.88   20.73   32.82
Financial Administration     115.60   0.81  N/A       7.57   12.95   11.25
Computer Serv                 68.99   0.73  N/A      10.60   16.85   13.85
Broadline Retailers          372.97   0.69  N/A       4.34   16.79   12.77
Asset Managers               136.31   0.66  N/A       2.19   13.22   24.06
Airlines                     134.31   0.62  N/A      10.10    6.11   23.57
Gambling                     604.79   0.61  N/A       6.47   15.02   38.57
Specialty Finance            140.65   0.61  N/A       3.16   17.40   19.72
Automobiles                  201.39   0.60  N/A       5.44   17.10   20.71
Banks                        557.04   0.57  N/A       1.12    3.41   15.05
Biotechnology                480.14   0.53  N/A       5.86    8.86    7.92
Recreational Serv             88.66   0.51  N/A       5.20   23.51    1.44
Electronic Equip             195.86   0.49  N/A       5.62   13.34   22.69
Consumer Finance             108.21   0.48  N/A       1.53    7.35    9.38
Forestry                     237.84   0.47  N/A       4.57    9.68    1.58
Tobacco                      276.11   0.47  N/A       6.36    2.59   12.35
Food Prod                    242.88   0.46  N/A       2.46    4.86   15.43
Steel                        292.91   0.45  N/A      17.62   10.41   79.78
Semiconductors              1207.72   0.45  N/A       0.55   11.83    3.17
Internet                     386.58   0.44  N/A      13.19   15.71    9.58
Software                     595.48   0.44  N/A       4.17   19.13   13.88
Home Construction            669.91   0.43  N/A       3.47   11.12  -22.07
Electronic Office Equip      302.40   0.43  N/A       7.42   16.09   19.43
Restaurants & Bars           444.03   0.42  N/A       9.35   20.25   28.94
Aerospace                    443.39   0.37  N/A       3.81    6.56   29.47
Specialty Retailers          450.93   0.35  N/A       6.47   19.87   17.45
Home Improve Retailers        94.72   0.34  N/A       4.92    7.47   -5.62
Mortgage Finance              91.80   0.34  N/A       6.09   18.27   17.99
Insurance Brokers            104.22   0.33  N/A       3.73    8.02    2.13
Containers & Packaging       165.08   0.32  N/A       4.55   10.29   13.89
Elec Components & Equip      142.24   0.31  N/A       2.57    9.33   23.38
Furnishings                  226.45   0.31  N/A      -1.33    5.90    7.25
Diversified Industrials      466.22   0.30  N/A       1.85    8.71    7.06
Delivery Serv                652.60   0.28  N/A       6.16    9.79   15.89
Computer Hardware            507.07   0.28  N/A       5.24   18.26   16.61
Invstmt Serv                1174.07   0.27  N/A       7.11   16.77   34.41
Specialized Consumer Serv    671.71   0.25  N/A       4.69   12.75  -10.40
Distillers & Vintners        125.14   0.24  N/A      -4.73    6.96   15.60
Building Matrls/Fxtures      331.42   0.21  N/A       5.78    9.85    8.02
Paper                        150.61   0.20  N/A      -0.67    1.03   13.99
Railroads                    413.74   0.16  N/A       9.41   14.75   33.73
Broadcast & Entertainment    453.23   0.15  N/A       7.38   14.31   23.75
Travel & Tourism              84.38   0.15  N/A       6.88   19.73    2.59
Real Estate Invstmt Trusts   132.09   0.13  N/A       5.86   10.54   30.54
Soft Drinks                  300.44   0.12  N/A       0.47    1.67    8.33
Industrial Suppliers         121.87   0.10  N/A       7.46   13.62   12.44
Full Line Insurance          449.71   0.09  N/A       1.70    9.97    4.95
Media Agencies               396.10   0.08  N/A       7.30   15.28   13.25
Publishing                   303.70   0.08  N/A       6.28   11.02    3.66
Electricity                  180.03   0.08  N/A       5.30    5.55   13.79
Prop & Casualty Insurance    384.91   0.07  N/A       2.38    7.21   10.92
Food Retailers/Whlslrs       220.75   0.06  N/A       2.71   11.92   10.72
Medical Equip                470.42   0.05  N/A       4.83    2.25   -1.51
Toys                         344.38   0.01  N/A       3.92   23.36   11.26
Pipelines                    460.20   0.00  N/A       1.35   -2.99   15.17
Industrial Machinery         205.91   0.00  N/A       4.55    5.78   15.95
Waste & Disposal Serv        106.17   0.00  N/A       2.89    8.58   25.71
Transportation Serv          192.00  -0.01  N/A       6.07    9.53   24.56
Gas Distribution             116.79  -0.03  N/A       4.78    2.32   12.08
Multiutilities               122.39  -0.06  N/A       5.07    5.71   16.46
Gold Mining                   92.09  -0.07  N/A       3.29  -12.05    7.97
Medical Supplies             335.66  -0.09  N/A       1.89    7.73   14.94
Reinsurance                  103.59  -0.09  N/A       1.25    9.73   13.91
Specialty Chemicals          249.42  -0.12  N/A       3.28    9.72   29.05
Trucking                     313.26  -0.12  N/A       1.00   -2.15    9.07
Business Support Serv        199.76  -0.13  N/A       3.29    7.53   12.58
Mobile Telecom               361.09  -0.14  N/A       6.42   -0.27    0.77
Commodity Chemicals          214.13  -0.15  N/A       5.26   14.45    4.42
Defense                      122.55  -0.15  N/A       0.94    6.09   22.26
Auto Parts                   207.44  -0.18  N/A      10.54    7.58    1.90
Marine Transportation        313.22  -0.19  N/A       5.54    6.24    8.95
Apparel Retailers            443.22  -0.19  N/A       8.63   22.14   30.17
Nonferrous Metals            391.14  -0.20  N/A      16.29   11.32   59.09
Personal Prod                271.75  -0.20  N/A       0.69    6.58   16.65
Heavy Construction           321.37  -0.25  N/A       4.98    1.88   28.14
Health Care Providers        493.80  -0.27  N/A      -3.88    1.66   -3.18
Footwear                     274.40  -0.32  N/A       4.02   15.25   10.65
Business Train/Employ Agnc   133.00  -0.37  N/A      10.85   12.65   15.37
Pharmaceuticals              277.86  -0.39  N/A       0.28    5.16   18.13
Clothing & Accessories       172.40  -0.43  N/A       8.52   23.63   24.86
Life Insurance               632.93  -0.47  N/A       0.96    4.35    8.96
Exploration & Production     433.92  -0.50  N/A     -10.54  -21.17   -6.14
Oil Equip & Serv             493.49  -0.50  N/A       1.93   -8.87   16.52
Drug Retailers               497.21  -0.50  N/A      -2.01   -3.58    6.02
Tires                         48.58  -0.51  N/A       4.78   29.58   -8.29
Fixed Line Telecom           153.59  -0.53  N/A       2.71   12.05   39.19
Integrated Oil & Gas         500.07  -0.55  N/A      19.50   14.76   35.69
Durable Household Prod       135.38  -0.55  N/A       2.65   12.23   10.10
Coal                         263.70  -0.72  N/A      14.88  -12.82   -2.53
Commercial Vehicles/Trucks   774.76  -0.75  N/A       0.93    2.36   28.90
Water                        695.22  -0.77  N/A      10.82   15.03   -2.79
Nondurable Household Prod    472.52  -1.69  N/A       1.43   11.83   14.54
Platinum & Precious Metals    96.93  -1.92  N/A      27.97   -7.81    6.43

IIC's Winners Watchlists

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