ParkTwain's Parlor

[ParkTwain]

Quick list of new all-time high breakout plays that meet my preferred criteria (w/in 105% of brkout pivot, uptrending RSI > 65, PEG ratio under 2.0 and closer to 1.0 the better, over 5.00/sh, >50K avg daily vol, no foreign companies, no banks, no REITs, no mines or metals, no utilities, no insurers, no acquisition targets), using 2/2/06, 2/3/06, and 2/6/06 data:

AATI, ACAD, ADS, AL, ALB, AMD, AP*, ASTE, AWGI
BLDR
CAKE, CENX, CPD
DSW
EEFT, EGY, EVST, EW
FORM*, FUL
GVA
HURN
IFS, ILMN*, IVAC*
KAR
LMT, LRCX*
MEOH, MGLN, MIC, MWIV
NMTI
PAAS, PDE, PH, PPCO, PTIE
RDC, RESC, ROC, RSTI
SBUX, SIMO, SMDI*, SPSX, STLD
TCC, TLF, TSCO, TXCO, TYL
UTIW
VAL
WAB, WHR, WLL
YMI*

*=exceptions to the criteria

I'll rank these and others later this week.

[Websman]

Park, the more I read your stuff, the more impressed I am, especially considering your huge returns last year.

Keep up the great posts! I'll be watching and learning. Heck I may even find a few things to help tweak my VTP.

[DSteckler]

Nice looking list. How did it do today?

[IIC]

Nice looking list. How did it do today?

Dave...Tell me who's long list did good today?...His list was 10/47/1...But the IIC 100 was 10/89/1...And since the IIC 100 is the standard for which all other lists are measured...Guess he did OK today...Anyway, the way I look at it is days like this create opportunties...Doug

[DSteckler]

<< Dave...Tell me who's long list did good today?... >>

None that I know of. That's why I wanted to know how Park's list did; the criteria choices looked interesting and I was thinking of replicating them.

[New-born baby]

Quick list of new all-time high breakout plays that meet my preferred criteria ( no foreign companies, no banks, no REITs, no mines or metals, no utilities, no acquisition targets),

ParK"
Would you please comment on why you eliminate these groups? Esp. "no mines or metals." Thanks!

[ParkTwain]

I eliminate different groups of stocks for different reasons but with the same intent: to increase the chance of finding a stock with a minimum of extraneous influences that could be "drags" on the ability of the shares to increase quickly after all-time-high resistance has been surpassed.

No foreign companies: no need to allow for currency risk or political/regulatory acts of a foreign sovereign, unforeseen effects of U.S. foreign policy acts/decisions

No banks, REITs, insurers, utilities: typically slow pps gainers, heavily regulated businesses, banks highly reactive to Fed policy and actions

No mines or metals: closely tied to an associated commodity's price, which itself can be tied to extraneous factors, such as foreign political acts/accidents/incidents/currency panics. To play these stocks I am in effect playing a commodity (a foreign-dominated commodity would be the worst case) but doing so indirectly. (I would rather play a commodity directly, in those markets.) I could also use this reasoning to disqualify metal-forming businesses (steel mills, canning companies, wire manufacturers, etc.) and even any oil/NG-related company. Practically speaking, I almost never trade any oil company shares due to their extreme sensitivity to geopolitical events. (My trades can run from a few days to a few weeks.) During CY2005, I traded only two stocks, FTO and CHK, in the oil/NG sectors; made good $$$ on FTO but lost $$$ (October) on CHK.

[New-born baby]

I eliminate different groups of stocks for different reasons but with the same intent: to increase the chance of finding a stock with a minimum of extraneous influences that could be "drags" on the ability of the shares to increase quickly after all-time-high resistance has been surpassed.

No foreign companies: no need to allow for currency risk or political/regulatory acts of a foreign sovereign, unforeseen effects of U.S. foreign policy acts/decisions

No banks, REITs, insurers, utilities: typically slow pps gainers, heavily regulated businesses, banks highly reactive to Fed policy and actions

No mines or metals: closely tied to an associated commodity's price, which itself can be tied to extraneous factors, such as foreign political acts/accidents/incidents/currency panics. To play these stocks I am in effect playing a commodity (a foreign-dominated commodity would be the worst case) but doing so indirectly. (I would rather play a commodity directly, in those markets.) I could also use this reasoning to disqualify metal-forming businesses (steel mills, canning companies, wire manufacturers, etc.) and even any oil/NG-related company. Practically speaking, I almost never trade any oil company shares due to their extreme sensitivity to geopolitical factors. (My trades can run from a few days to a few weeks.) During CY2005, I traded only two stocks, FTO and CHK, in the oil/NG sectors; made good $$$ on FTO but lost $$$ (October) on CHK.

I thank you for the post. I play the NG/Oil sector most heavily, esp. the high divy payers. Yes, the high divy (12%+ means a slow pps gains (or losses). I look at the divy as insurance. A day like today means little as the divy will recover the losses in short order.

[ParkTwain]

A day like today means little as the divy will recover the losses in short order.

But the dividend distribution could, at worst, be 3 months away! (I'm assuming your statement means that you hold for the divy distribution, or are you talking about only the price movement that reflects the market's anticipation of the distribution?)

[ParkTwain]

Perfect example of what I'm looking for:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LDSH&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=ldsh

In late July 2005 LDSH jumped on high volume to meet its all-time high of just over 15.00/sh. Notice in the second chart that its rise since then has been faster than any in its previous history. Since then it's seen about a 66% gain in 6 months. No overhead resistance is a beautiful thing.

[New-born baby]

But the dividend distribution could, at worst, be 3 months away! (I'm assuming your statement means that you hold for the divy distribution, or are you talking about only the price movement that reflects the market's anticipation of the distribution?)

Monthly divys. If it is a three month wait, then price appreciation near the divy ex-date is what I look for. I don't like holding those 3 month-ers for the divy. Too risky.

[DSteckler]

But price usually drops after the stock goes ex-dividend. Doesn't that cut into your return?

[ParkTwain]

This morning bought IED and BHE.

New additions (2/7/06 data) to yesterday's watch list for all-time high breakouts.

BHE, BTUI
CECE
IED, ISE
OTT
PLMD
ROLL
WGOV

[New-born baby]

But price usually drops after the stock goes ex-dividend. Doesn't that cut into your return?

If I buy a stock that pays a monthly dividend, I usually hold the stock for more than one month. For example: PMT.UN is a natural gas stock on the TSE. It pays a monthly divy of .24 CD. If you buy the stock at current $20 level, the price will fluctuate about $2 per month. You could play for the capital gains, or you can hold and collect $2.88 per year with little sweat. Or you could play it inbetween. If I buy PMT at $20 and the stock surprises me and drops to $18, that dividend works to console me and also to drive the stock price back up. It is a nice insurance.

[Websman]

This morning bought IED and BHE.

New additions (2/7/06 data) to yesterday's watch list for all-time high breakouts.

BHE, BTUI
CECE
IED, ISE
OTT
PLMD
ROLL
WGOV

I'm liking IED. I may buy on a pullback myself.