ParkTwain's Parlor

[ParkTwain]

The Old Testament also condones slavery. You have to be selective about where you get your guidance in life, I would say.

Federal legislation in the early 1930s that resulted in increasing the longest available term of home mortgages was one of the domestic economic successes that came out of the Great Depression.

[ParkTwain]

In my ongoing research of watching new 52-week highs, and especially watching for stocks making all-time highs, I have been struck during the last couple of years at the behavior of the water resources stocks. Some of these are categorized (such as at clearstation.com) as "water utility" companies (and also notice the group's relative strength), but there are some microcaps, such as PCYO in the Denver, CO area, that are still below the market's radar and have some very interesting stories going on. Privately controlled water resources across the country are being bid up and consolidated via the stock market, and it is very interesting to watch.

[ParkTwain]

Paul Desmond's research on market tops and bottoms

Here are several articles about recent reports from Paul Desmond of Lowry's research about the historical characteristics of stock market tops and bottoms. This looks to me to be very good information that you will want to keep for the longer term.

The starting point is a pair of articles from theStreet.com:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/marketfeatures/10269345.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/marketfeatures/10269355.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Here is a 7-page article that presents the material in Desmond's own words:

http://www.weedenco.com/welling/Downloads/2006/0803_GP_Desmond.pdf

Here is a link to Lowry's web site, where you can purchase the Desmond reports for about $10.00 each:

http://www.lowrysreports.com/research_studies.cfm

Among many excellent facts that he presents, he makes the relatively common-sense point that a good number of the listings on the NYSE are actually funds and ADRs. When the movements of these issues are included in the daily advance/decline numbers for the entire NYSE, you can get a mistaken impression about what is actually happening among the U.S.-only common stock issues. So in his research, he excludes those issues as he tries to understand what the behavior of the domestic-only issues was when the market was peaking or bottoming.

In the Street.com interview, he also makes the point that he isn't usually interested in investing in foreign markets due to the complication of the effects of exchange rates on one's effective rate of return.

[ParkTwain]

34 stocks that have increased their earnings for 10 straight years:

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2006/02/ten_straight_ye.html

Apollo Group-Cl A APOL
Applebee's Intl APPB
Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY
Brown & Brown BRO
Cathay Gen Bancorp CATY
Compass Bancshares CBSS
Capital One Financial COF
Copart CPRT
City National CYN
Donaldson DCI
D.R. Horton DHI
Dollar Tree Stores DLTR
Expeditors Intl Wash EXPD
General Electric GE
Home Depot HD
Harley-Davidson HDI
Health Mgmt Assoc HMA
Hilb Rogal & Hobbs HRH
Heartland Express HTLD
Knight Trans KNX
Lincare Holdings LNCR
Moog-Cl A MOGA
NVR NVR
O'Reilly Automotive ORLY
Paychex PAYX
Patterson Companies PDCO
Ross Stores ROST
SEI Investments SEIC
Synovus Financial SNV
Sysco SYY
Toll Brothers TOL
Trustco Bank Corp/NY TRST
Walgreen WAG
Wal-Mart Stores WMT

[ParkTwain]

Wendy Lo's Power Tools trading blog

Here is a just basically great and well distilled set of articles about whittling down to a workable trading approach and system, found at a blog produced by a system-based trader named Teresa Lo. I have not finished reading all of this material, but what I have read so far tells me that this is very valuable information for a new to intermediate level trader, which is the area where I fall.

Starting by reading her series of blog posts about "Key Concepts":

http://powerswings.com/FAQ/2006/02/13/key-concepts/

(Click each successive link found at the top right of the page.)
The posts in this set are:
* Key Concepts
* ATRp - Average True Range Percent (i.e., as opposed to historical volatility)
* Position Sizing Tool
* Relative Performance Counts
* The Sentiment Cycle
* The Age-Old Question
* Ratio Charts Count Too

Then read about her trading system:

http://powerswings.com/FAQ/2006/02/11/the-countdown/

(Click each successive link found at the top right of the page.)

Then read about her "Ultimate Trading Course" ...:

http://www.powerswings.com/tradingcourse.html

...which includes this nice 28-page PDF document:

http://www.powerswings.com/PTM/PTM20050224.pdf

[DSteckler]

<< Here are several articles about recent reports from Paul Desmond of Lowry's research about the historical characteristics of stock market tops and bottoms. >>

I have a copy of Paul's 2002 Dow Award paper that discussed identifying market bottoms (I sat on the Dow Award committee that year). If you'd like a copy please contact me via e-mail at [email protected] (not Ernie's private mail) and I'll send you back the paper.

[IIC]

<< Here are several articles about recent reports from Paul Desmond of Lowry's research about the historical characteristics of stock market tops and bottoms. >>

I have a copy of Paul's 2002 Dow Award paper that discussed identifying market bottoms (I sat on the Dow Award committee that year). If you'd like a copy please contact me via e-mail at [email protected] (not Ernie's private mail) and I'll send you back the paper.

I emailed you Dave...But I just noticed that someone emailed me this yesterday:

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10269345.html

[diogenes]

How many of you bought the SBUX breakout? (It's still within 110% of its pivot of 32.50/sh.) FDX is about to do the same thing.

Neg. on the SBUX.

If you happen to have a few mins., then what do you think of ADAM?

[ParkTwain]

re: ADAM:

Good-looking breakout out of an ascending triangle but without a big increase in RSI. I would prefer to have bought this stock under 8.00/sh. If you buy now you have to be ready to watch it sink back to between 7 and 8/sh. Accoring to Yahoo "key statistics" this is an unusually profitable company as to profit margin. So you may have a nice find on your hands.

This chart shows the setup for the breakout beyond about 7.00/sh.

http://tinyurl.com/regbs

[ParkTwain]

Bought some RUSHA yesterday.
Today bought some ALNY and DCI.

Many more (at least 50) new all-time high breakout candidates that I'm tracking. I'll post the list later tonight.

[DSteckler]

Careful on DCI. Extended and volume is less than 1/3 of ADV.

[ParkTwain]

re: DCI: I see nearest support in high 33s, then next at 32. I almost never factor moving averages (as indicating a support level) into my decisions unless there has been actual volume at that price level. RSI has been uptrending for over 1 month. Also, DCI earnings are announced next week (eod Feb 28th).

[ParkTwain]

So many great articles about trading, and so little time:

http://www.trading-naked.com/Articles_and_Reprints.htm

The site also offers Charlie Wright's "Trading as a Business" book as a set of PDF files. I have it in book form, and I recommend it. It describes how to become a strategy-based trader.

Also, this 1993 interview with Linda Raschke:

http://www.trading-naked.com/library/LBR_RASCHKE.pdf

As a comparison, here is an interview with Linda in 2004:

https://lbrgroup.com/images///raschke0204.pdf

[ParkTwain]

Closed position in IED this morning for +11% in 10 days in market. Earnings release this morning. Probably goes higher.

[diogenes]

So many great articles about trading, and so little time:

http://www.trading-naked.com/Articles_and_Reprints.htm

The site also offers Charlie Wright's "Trading as a Business" book as a set of PDF files. I have it in book form, and I recommend it. It describes how to become a strategy-based trader.

Whoa! Great site. Thanks for the link