ParkTwain's Parlor

[ParkTwain]

Lax Oversight Blamed for High Gas Prices

http://tinyurl.com/hh3r8

Iowa Attorney General report synopsis

http://www.iowaattorneygeneral.org/latest_news/releases/mar_2006/Natural_Gas.html

//
Too little oversight of financial markets — not supply and demand problems — are to blame for skyrocketing natural gas prices, top law enforcement officials in four Midwestern states said Tuesday.

Comparing natural gas trading to "the wild, wild West," the attorneys general from Illinois, Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin urged Congress to increase regulation of markets they say are vulnerable to abuse and manipulation.

The officials — all Democrats — issued a six-month study of natural gas prices. They said they want to debunk the commonly held view that a lack of supply and surging demand are responsible for sharp price increases that have caused a 25 percent to 30 percent rise in winter heating bills in the Midwest and elsewhere.

"It's stunningly annoying to sit here and have to literally say the moon is not made of green cheese," Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon said at a news conference. "Supply and demand did not cause the spikes."

The price surge has affected more than half of all U.S. households that heat with natural gas. Many of those who rely on electric heat have also seen bills go up because a large number of power plants run on natural gas.

While natural gas prices are up about 28 percent this year, usage is down 5 percent. At the same time, supply has remained steady.

"How can you have demand down, and price up and supply level?" said Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller. "It doesn't make sense. To get to these big increases, you have to look at the financial side, at the trading."

The report prepared by Mark Cooper, research director for the Consumer Federation of America, concluded that one reason for the upward climb of prices is a huge influx of money into largely unregulated financial markets.

Under current law, Miller said, only about 20 percent of trades are reported. The lack of transparency allows traders to gain huge positions and potentially manipulate the market, he said.

"It's sort of like the wild, wild West in terms of trading," Miller said. "There's very little reporting of trades."

The officials urged Congress to make market trading more transparent by requiring registration of traders and reporting of all trades. They also want stricter limits on positions held by one entity, longer settlement periods for short- and long-term contracts, and restrictions on how much the price of natural gas can fluctuate before trading is temporarily halted for a cooling off period.
//

[ParkTwain]

Anyone who is paid wages in cash is not as likely to have a checking account and is not going to be paying state and Federal income taxes! What are these "business leaders" smoking? It's called an "addiction" to illegal labor, just like the "addiction" to imported oil. Plus, there is very little enforcement. Why would there be, by an administration that predominantly represents the interests of business, not workers or consumers.

(emphasis added)
//
Number of Illegal Immigrants Hits 12M

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press WriterTue Mar 7, 2:38 PM ET

The number of illegal immigrants in the United States has grown to as many as 12 million, and they now account for about one in every 20 workers, a new estimate says.

Efforts to curb illegal immigration have not slowed the pace, said a report Tuesday by the Pew Hispanic Center.

Instead, the report's author said, those efforts are having an unintended consequence: People who illegally enter the United States from Mexico are staying longer because it is harder to move back and forth across the border.

"The security has done more to keep people from going back to Mexico than it has to keep them from coming in," said Jeffrey Passel, a senior research associate at the center.

It is difficult to accurately measure the number of illegal immigrants in the United States, but most public agencies and private groups had settled on a figure of about 11 million.

The Pew Hispanic Center used Census Bureau data to estimate that the United States had 11.1 million illegal immigrants in March 2005. The center used monthly population estimates to project a current total of 11.5 million to 12 million.

The report estimates that 850,000 illegal immigrants have arrived in United States each year since 2000.

President Bush has called for a program that would grant temporary worker status to illegal immigrants already here. The House rejected the program and instead passed a border security bill last year that leaned toward lawmakers who were calling for a crackdown.

The Senate is trying to address both border security and the temporary worker program, but consensus has been elusive. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter, R-Pa., has said he hopes his panel will produce a bill by the end of March.

There are about 7.2 million undocumented workers in the U.S., or about 5 percent of the country's work force, the Pew report said.

It estimated that **illegal immigrants fill a quarter of all agricultural jobs, 17 percent of office and house cleaning positions, 14 percent of construction jobs and 12 percent in food preparation.**

"Especially if we look at the Mexicans, these are people with fairly low levels of formal education," Passel said. "They're not able to get licensing or credentials in the United States because of their status, so the kinds of jobs available to them in the United States are somewhat limited."

**Business leaders and advocates for immigrants' rights argue that America's economy would collapse if all the illegal workers were deported.**

**"Undocumented immigrants do pay taxes**, and they do contribute to the economic, social and cultural developments of their communities," said Peta Ikambana of the American Friends Service Committee. The group was organizing a rally near the Capitol on Tuesday to protest the House bill.

"Just building walls will not stop immigration," Ikambana said. "Those that are here will just go underground."

Steven Camarota of the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates tougher border enforcement, said he isn't surprised that the number of illegal immigrants continues to climb. He called the government's crackdown halfhearted at best.

Camarota pointed to a recent government report showing that very few businesses are fined for hiring illegal immigrants. **The government filed only three notices that it intended to fine companies in 2004, down from 417 notices in 1999, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office.**

Camarota said there would be plenty of Americans willing to accept jobs done by illegal immigrants if they paid adequate wages and benefits.

Tuesday's report by the Pew Hispanic Center said Mexicans make up 56 percent of illegal immigrants. An additional 22 percent come from other Latin American countries, mainly in Central America. About 13 percent are from Asia, and Europe and Canada combine for 6 percent.
//

[ParkTwain]

Watch for any of these performers in the upcoming NCAA and NIT tourneys. Here are some elite stats (in my opinion) for individual NCAA basketball players. I'm interested in the players whose stats reflect performance over the entire season. (Using data found tonight at ESPN.com.)


Based on the following data, here are a few players who stand out (each shows up on more than one of the lists below):
* Kenny Adeleke, Hartford
* Morris Almond, Rice
* Jose Juan Barea, Northeastern
* Roy Booker, SE Missouri State
* John Bowler, Eastern Michigan
* Steve Burtt, Iona+
* Keydren (Keekee) Clark, St. Peter's
* Bobby Dixon, Troy
* Quincy Douby, Rutgers
* Nick Fazekas, Nevada+
* Caleb Green, Oral Roberts+
* Whit Holcomb-Faye, Radford
* Paul Millsap, Louisiana Tech
* Adam Morrison, Gonzaga+
* Harding Nana, Delaware
* Yemi Nicholson, Denver
* J.J. Redick, Duke+
* Rodney Stuckey, Eastern Wash.
* Justin Williams, Wyoming
* Shelden Williams, Duke+
+ = probably in the NCAA tourney


Players with at least 550 pts for the year (only 36 players), at least 20.0 points/game:
* Adam Morrison, Gonzaga: 28.4 ppg
* J.J. Redick, Duke: 27.8 ppg
* Keydren (Keekee) Clark, St. Peter's: 26.3 ppg
* Andre Collins, Loyola MD: 26.1 ppg
* Steve Burtt, Iona: 25.2 ppg
* Quincy Douby, Rutgers: 25.1 ppg
* Rodney Stuckey, Eastern Wash.: 24.1 ppg
* Trey Johnson, Jackson State: 23.6 ppg
* Alan Daniels, Lamar: 23.1 ppg
* Whit Holcomb-Faye, Radford: 23.1 ppg
* Larry Blair, Liberty: 22.6 ppg
* Elton Nesbitt, Georgia Southern: 22.1 ppg
* Tim Smith, East Tenn. St.: 22.0 ppg
* Roy Booker, SE Missouri State: 22.0 ppg
* Nick Fazekas, Nevada: 21.9 ppg
* Morris Almond, Rice: 21.6 ppg
* Jose Juan Barea, Northeastern: 21.0 ppg
* Caleb Green, Oral Roberts: 21.0 ppg
* Kenny Adeleke, Hartford: 20.7 ppg
* Jarrius Jackson, Texas Tech: 20.3 ppg
* John Bowler, Eastern Michigan: 20.1 ppg


Players with at least 200 FG made for the year (only 35 players) and at least 45% made:
* Kyle Hines, NC Greensboro: 62.2%
* Yemi Nicholson, Denver: 60.3%
* J.P. Batista, Gonzaga: 59.3%
* Kenny Adeleke, Hartford: 59.2%
* Brandon Polk, Butler: 57.4%
* Paul Millsap, Louisiana Tech: 56.1%
* Caleb Green, Oral Roberts: 53.2%
* Nick Fazekas, Nevada: 53.0%
* Glen Davis, LSU: 51.0%
* Dan Oppland, Valparaiso: 50.8%
* Adam Morrison, Gonzaga: 49.8%
* Rodney Stuckey, Eastern Wash.: 49.3%
* Morris Almond, Rice: 49.2%
* Loren Stokes, Hofstra: 49.2%
* Steven Smith, La Salle: 49.0%
* Kevin Pittsnogle, West Virginia: 48.8%
* Arizona 'AZ' Reid, High Point: 48.6%
* J.J. Redick, Duke: 48.0%
* Hassan Adams, Arizona: 47.0%
* Harding Nana, Delaware: 46.9%
* Trey Johnson, Jackson State: 46.3%
* Alando Tucker, Wisconsin: 45.7%
* Terrence Todd, Fairfield: 45.5%
* Quincy Douby, Rutgers: 45.5%
* Curtis Stinson, Iowa State: 45.2%


At least 90 3pts made for the year (only 26 players), at least 40% made:
* J. Robert Merritt, Samford: 47.6%
* Chris Lofton, Tennessee: 45.8%
* Martin Samarco, Bowling Green: 45.7%
* Steve Novak, Marquette: 45.6%
* Bruce Horan, Butler: 42.3%
* Jack Leasure, Coastal Carolina: 41.9%
* J.J. Redick, Duke: 41.8%
* Steve Burtt, Iona: 41.2%
* Shane Nichols, Wofford: 40.8%
* Will Whittington, Marist: 40.6%
* Thomas Gardner, Missouri: 40.4%
* Elton Nesbitt, Georgia Southern: 40.4%


At least 200 free throws attempted (only 29 players) and at least 80% made:
* Keydren (Keekee) Clark, St. Peter's: 212 ... 89.2%
* J.J. Redick, Duke: 229 ... 88.6%
* Steve Burtt, Iona: 200 ... 82.5%
* Roy Booker, SE Missouri State: 200 ... 82.5%
* Whit Holcomb-Faye, Radford: 225 ... 80.9%


At least 150 free throws made for the year (only 27 players), at least 6 free throws made per game:
* Adam Morrison, Gonzaga: 7.47/gm
* Caleb Green, Oral Roberts: 7.13/gm
* Leon Powe, California: 6.96/gm
* J.J. Redick, Duke: 6.77/gm
* John Bowler, Eastern Michigan: 6.54/gm
* Marcus Slaughter, San Diego State: 6.31/gm
* Whit Holcomb-Faye, Radford: 6.28/gm
* George Hill, IUPUI: 6.28/gm
* Roy Booker, SE Missouri State: 6.11/gm


At least 275 rebounds for the year (only 26 players), at least 10 rebounds per game:
* Paul Millsap, Louisiana Tech: 13.5/gm
* Kenny Adeleke, Hartford: 13.1/gm
* Rashad Jones-Jennings, Arkansas LR: 11.3/gm
* Ivan Almonte, Florida Intl: 11.2/gm
* Curtis Withers, Charlotte: 11.0/gm
* Ricky Woods, SE Louisiana: 11.0/gm
* Yemi Nicholson, Denver: 10.9/gm
* Harding Nana, Delaware: 10.9/gm
* John Bowler, Eastern Michigan: 10.8/gm
* Justin Williams, Wyoming: 10.7/gm
* Corey Rouse, East Carolina: 10.6/gm
* Shelden Williams, Duke: 10.4/gm
* Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh: 10.4/gm
* Nick Fazekas, Nevada: 10.3/gm
* Obie Nwadike, Central Conn.: 10.3/gm
* Todd Sowell, St. Peter's: 10.2/gm
* Tim Parham, MD Eastern Shore: 10.2/gm
* Matthew Knight, Loyola Marymnt: 10.0/gm


At least 75 steals for the year (only 20 players), at least 3.0 steals per game:
* Obie Trotter, Alabama A&M: 3.4/gm
* Tim Smith, East Tenn. St.: 3.4/gm
* Ibrahim Jaaber, Pennsylvania: 3.4/gm
* Kevin Hamilton, Holy Cross: 3.3/gm
* Oliver Lafayette, Houston: 3.2/gm
* Bobby Dixon, Troy: 3.0/gm


At least 75 blocked shots for the year (only 20 players), at least 3.0 per game:
* Shawn James, Northeastern: 6.5/gm
* Justin Williams, Wyoming: 5.2/gm
* Stephane Lasme, Massachusetts: 3.9/gm
* Shelden Williams, Duke: 3.7/gm
* Eric Hicks, Cincinnati: 3.4/gm
* Antoine 'Slim' Millien, Idaho State: 3.4/gm
* Hilton Armstrong, Connecticut: 3.4/gm
* Michael Southall, La Lafayette: 3.3/gm
* Andrea Crosariol, Fairleigh Dickinson: 3.0/gm
* Solomon Jones, South Florida: 3.0/gm
* Tyrus Thomas, LSU: 3.0/gm

... and another who stands out:
* Patrick O'Bryant, Bradley: 3.1/gm in 22 games


At least 150 assists for the year (only 37 players), at least 6.0 assists per game:
* Jared Jordan, Marist: 8.5/gm
* Marcus Williams, Connecticut: 8.4/gm
* Jose Juan Barea, Northeastern: 8.4/gm
* Walker Russell, Jacksonville St.: 6.8/gm
* Terrell Everett, Oklahoma: 6.6/gm
* Kenny Grant, Davidson: 6.6/gm
* Bobby Dixon, Troy: 6.6/gm
* Aaron Fitzgerald, UC Irvine: 6.4/gm
* Carldell 'Squeaky' Johnson, UAB: 6.4/gm
* Chris Quinn, Notre Dame: 6.2/gm
* Josh Wilson, Northern Arizona: 6.1/gm
* Will Blalock, Iowa State: 6.1/gm
* Golden Ingle, Kennesaw: 6.1/gm
* T.J. McCullough, Gardner Webb: 6.1/gm
* Lorenzo Williams, Rice: 6.1/gm
* Aubrey Conerly, Jacksonville: 6.0/gm

[skiracer]

Park,
Who do you like in the tournament this year. It's Duke all the way for me.

[ParkTwain]

My picks for most likely champion, in descending order: UConn, Texas (but I think Barnes is a weak game-time coach), Villanova, Duke, anyone else. I like what I have seen from Iowa. I enjoy watching West Virginia. Can't comment on LSU, Tennesee, Georgetown, Ohio St., Washington, GWU.

UConn has the most talent and a great game-time coach. I think Duke has been overrated all year, which happens most years. After my top four picks there is a fall off to the next group, but that group is large. Memphis will win some games in the tourney but not the championship. Gonzaga and Villanova lack size upfront, West Virginia doesn't play defense, UNC is too young.

[skiracer]

My picks for most likely champion, in descending order: UConn, Texas (but I think Barnes is a weak game-time coach), Villanova, Duke, anyone else. I like what I have seen from Iowa. I enjoy watching West Virginia. Can't comment on LSU, Tennesee, Georgetown, Ohio St., Washington, GWU.

UConn has the most talent and a great game-time coach. I think Duke has been overrated all year, which happens most years. After my top four picks there is a fall off to the next group, but that group is large. Memphis will win some games in the tourney but not the championship. Gonzaga and Villanova lack size upfront, West Virginia doesn't play defense, UNC is too young.

I'm prejudiced towards Duke as I'm a big fan of theirs. Hope they are not running out of steam at this time of the year. Would have liked to see them lose a few earlier and get stronger now. Connecticut is great and so is Villanova. If not Duke I would like to see Villanova do it. On a neutral court I like Villanove over Connecticut. Duke has beat a number of top 10 teams and Mike K will have them up for it hopefully. That ACC tournament is rough and could take alot out of them but so will the Big East be rough on Conn. My favorite time of the year for sports right now. Love the college baskets and will be making a few wagers. Always catch a few good underdogs in this tournament taking the points.

[ParkTwain]

Duke has beaten only one team (Texas) that was Top 10 at the time all year. (Redick had 41 in that game with 9 3-pters, and Texas guards had lots of turnovers.) They just barely beat Memphis, Boston College, and Va. Tech. So I'm not sold on their chances in the tourney beyond the Sweet 16.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/clubhouse?teamId=150

[DSteckler]

I thought Memphis was Top 10 at the time?

[skiracer]

Duke has beaten only one team (Texas) that was Top 10 at the time all year. (Redick had 41 in that game with 9 3-pters, and Texas guards had lots of turnovers.) They just barely beat Memphis, Boston College, and Va. Tech. So I'm not sold on their chances in the tourney beyond the Sweet 16.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/clubhouse?teamId=150

I'm pretty sure Memphis was #6 when Duke beat them. Boston College was #10 an at home. Texas was #2 at the time Duke beat them. But none of that means anything in the tournament. Does Duke get a #1 seed? If not who are the #1 seeds.

Sorry, I was way off on Memphis and BC.

[ParkTwain]

That's why I posted that link to the ESPN.com page. It shows on Duke's schedule to date the ranking of the teams played. I take it that the ranking shown for each of Duke's opponents was as of the day of that game.

[ParkTwain]

Bought some IOTN this morning. Watching ECL after yesterday's breakout.

[ParkTwain]

Here are the results of my latest batch of research.

I spend most of my time looking for stocks that are just breaking out to all-time highs (ATHs). As a by-product of this research, I also find a few other kinds of setups. I will do a position trade at no more than 5% above support and look for a quick 10% to 15% gain by about 10 market days. In almost all general market conditions, I can use this approach to find many more candidates than I can actually trade. I will open positions in no more than 5 stocks at a time.

I always start by looking at each day's new highs list (sorted by Relative Strength Index) found here:

http://www2.barchart.com/high.asp?=&sort=8&what=ALL&force=high%2easp

I look for stocks making a new ATH (or just passing resistance that leads to a very high next resistance level) vs. a previous ATH made at least 30 day ago and where the RSI is at least 65 and uptrending for at least 1 month. Wilder ADX and Chaikin Money Flow are my preferred corroborating technical indicators, found at stockcharts.com.

I will update the lists below after I dig into the technicals of these charts during another day or two of work.

>> = best looking opportunity based on a superficial price-volume chart read.

* = stock that does not fully meet my preferred criteria (at least 5.00/sh, at least 50K avg daily volume per Yahoo quotes; no banks, no REITs, no foreign companies, no insurers, no electric utilities, no mining, no trusts or funds)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

CATEGORIES OF SETUPS:

* High Next Resistance (including bullish gap fills)
* Imminent ATH Breakouts (use alert to signal breakout)
* Recent ATH Breakouts (WATCH for any retracement)
* Recent ATH Breakouts, followed by support test
* Turnaround after long-term downtrend
* IPOs after bounce


DATA COVERAGE: market closes from 3/2/2006 to 3/13/2006



---High Next Resistance (including bullish gap fills)
---(Some of these have not quite broken out to reach the zone of high next resistance.)

ACXM, AIRM, ALXN, AMCC, AMKR, ARGN, ARNA, ARTG, ASYT, ATRL, AVNX, AWGI, AZPN
BDY, BEL, BLD, BWNG
CCUR, CGTK, CHMP, CHRZ, CPSS
DAR
EDS, EGLS, EXEL, EXFO
FCGI, FFIV, FIX, FNSR
>>GLW, GPI
HYC
IFSIA, IKN, ININ
LGTY
MEH, MEK, MYGN
OATS, OPNT
PMCS
RNAI, >>RTN
SHLO, SILC, SMSI, STEL, >>STLW
TNOX, TTG*, TWTC
>>URI
VYYO
ZOLT



---Imminent ATH Breakouts (use alert to signal breakout)

>>ABAX, ADS, AFG, AIR, ALD, AVM
CMC
DLLR, >>DRS
ECOL, EYE, EZPW
FLOW
GIII
HCR, HOM*
ICTG*
KERX, KMX
MIL, MNKD, >>MPR*, MVK
NBIX, NC, NDAQ
PAY, PJC, PMI, PWEI
RMK, RNT
SAFT, SYKE
THLD, TOO, TTI
VVI
X



---Recent ATH Breakouts (WATCH for any retracement)

ALOG, >>ALNY, >>ANDS, ASF, >>ATU
CONR, >>COST, CSL
>>DDE, >>DRS, >>DTG
ECL, EFD, ESCH
FDC, FDX, >>FUL, FVE
GBX, >>GD, GFX*, GRMN
>>HEI
IED, IOTN
KNL
>>LFB (acq target)
MDCI
>>NOC
PAY, PCYO*, PROS*
>>RONC*, >>ROP (look for retrace to ~43/sh)
SCST, SINT, SRCL
USAP*, >>UUU*
VTIV
>>WY



---Recent ATH Breakouts, followed by support test

AKN*, AVL, AWR
BABY, >>BECN
CHAP, CTSH
ESLR, >>EVST
>>FTO
IPSU
>>KNOT
>>LFB
>>NICH
>>PH
SPN



---Turnaround after long-term downtrend
---(Sellers likely are extinguished.)

ACME, APAC, APN
DDIC
EVOL
MFA
TRMS
UPCS



---IPOs after bounce
---(Fundamentals and the company's "story" figure more prominently for these.)

ACUS
DEIX, DRH
LVS
MWIV
>>QLTY
>>RNVS, RUTX
UDRL

[ParkTwain]

Here's a really interesting article from Brett Steenbarger about the nature of the market's decreasing volatility: http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060313/14038.html

Here's the punch line:

//
Before I present some eye-opening findings, allow me to propose a thesis:

Every market has its personality, and that personality is defined by two traits: Volatility and Trendiness. A volatile market is one that moves a great deal from time period to time period. A trendy market is one that tends to move in the same direction from one period to the next. Over time, markets change their personalities, which is to say they change their volatility and trending. This is part of what makes markets so difficult to trade: just as traders adapt to one market personality, another is likely to take its place.

What we've seen in recent years in the S&P 500, however, is a personality change worthy of Jekyll and Hyde. I believe this accounts for the common perception among retail and professional traders alike that the recent period has been one of the most difficult on record to trade. ...

So let's put these findings together: We are seeing reduced volatility *and* we are seeing reduced trendiness. That means that traders are able to take less movement out of trades *and* they are less likely to see movement carry over from one period to the next. Is it any wonder that traders are experiencing such difficulty? We have never seen a market personality quite like this one, in which low volatility has also been accompanied by low trending.

But now the bad news. I've also performed historical studies of trendiness on a five-minute basis (reported on my research site). The proportion of trending occasions is nowhere near even the one-half level; it's more like one-third. That is because of the low volatility: a third of the time the market doesn't move at all (price stays constant) and another third of the time the market reverses. The short-term momentum trader is thus in the worst of all possible worlds, as low volatility produces a lack of movement and low trending produces a lack of follow-through on moves.

I believe traders--especially short-term traders of the stock indices--need to take these findings very seriously. To the extent that the loss of trending is created by increased arbitrage and program trading, there is no assurance that it will reverse. Moreover, we've seen that the loss of volatility in the market can also persist--and even get worse. To blindly hope that the market will "get better" is not a trading plan, much less the plan for a trading career.

The good news is that there are trading instruments with far higher levels of volatility and trendiness, and those include many individual stocks. (One look at this is on the Trader Performance page of my personal site). Note that this makes stock picking and portfolio selection more important than ever. There aren't any universal laws in trading, but this one might come close: Make sure the personality of what you trade fits with how you trade.
//

[ParkTwain]

Bought EVST and NICH this morning. Almost bought SINT but will wait.

[ParkTwain]

Today's list of new 52-week highs is 14 pages long. Amazing!

http://www2.barchart.com/high.asp?=&sort=8&what=ALL&force=high%2easp