Swing Trading

[billyjoe]

Well, thanks to Skiracer and Morpheus I'm officially a swing trader now. At least for 2 months and more if it works out. The hardest part is selling for a loss (a slight one) or selling for a gain when you instinctively want to hold out for more.

Swing traders hope to gain from the market momentum or an individual stock's momentum to get a good chunk of the profit while bailing out quickly and with very little loss, usually break even or 1 or 2 percent at most. With this method a trader can do very well losing on 60% of the trades and getting a nice 8% on the other 4 of 10 trades. Watching a gain go from hundreds of dollars to a loss in 24 hours and then selling will rip your guts out. It's happened to me 5 times in the last 2 weeks but in the long run the gains will ad up. I've got 3 wins and 5 losses since June 22nd . Biggest loss $44.
Will keep posting the totals as they become official with my broker.

Why 2 months you ask? Because my son bought me a 2 month subscription for Father's Day. Will probably post first 8 sell results by Friday.


--------------billy

[Deaddog]

Welcome to the world of swing trading.

You are correct in saying that the hardest thing to do is to take your losses and then watch the stock reverse.

Keep in mind that each trade is one of many and that the only thing that will really hurt your account is a big loss.

Hope you’ll post your trades as you take them. I found that this helps with the discipline. For some reason you are more likely to honor your stops after you have posted them.

[skiracer]

Well good luck and God Bless you Billyjoe and you to Deaddog. You could do alot worse than following Deron and Morpheus or perhaps me.

[billyjoe]

Here are my first 8 trades. Have listed dollar amounts since % doesn't matter if the amount wagered is tiny. I'll be buying higher quantities and making more trades as I get used to system. Also will put buy and sell price in future postings.

6/22/12 LF (34.92)

6/22/12 AMLN (44.20)----very hard to do I didn't get new buy signal in time before buyout offer

6/22/12 LF (26.94)

6/22/12 LF (37.24)

7/6/12 LF 50.31

7/6/12 LF 14.20

7/9/12 UNG (18.77)

7/10/12 CRAY 99.06

Total gain 1.50. All 8 trades were over $200 gainers at one time while I held. Commission fees are figured in to amount realized.

---------------billy

[billyjoe]

All in cash but have limit order in for IOC.

Update---Buy 50 sh. IOC 72.80 target 79.31 stop 68.07

-----------billy

[billyjoe]

This one is working. IOC closes at 76.99 I'm up 199.55, might sell tomorrow I've been snakebit too often. I'll take 5.5% in 3 trading days.

---------------billy

[skiracer]

[QUOTE=billyjoe;114086]This one is working. IOC closes at 76.99 I'm up 199.55, might sell tomorrow I've been snakebit too often. I'll take 5.5% in 3 trading days.

---------------billy[/QUOT
Billy,
knowing how to maximize the opportunity is as important an aspect of swing trading as any other part of it. Take a look at the weekly of IOC. nice double bottom cup base working there and it looks like it wants to go to 80 or so before any type of correction. the left side of the cup is right at 80 and the 20 just recently crossed back above its 50 ema. today was a big day for it but on lower volume than yesterday so today was not an accumulation day but I still thing there are 4-5 more points in it before it corrects which would be around 80. double cup bases are very strong patterns. I would be patient with it.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
It looks as if you're correct again. I couldn't have sold anyway since my computer was down from 6 AM until 4:15 PM, dumb luck for me. Now up $268,

-----------billy

[billyjoe]

sold 50 sh. IOC @78.62 gain 271.02

Bought 200 sh. UNG @ 19.68 target 22.60 stop 18.48


------------billy

[skiracer]

Ski,
It looks as if you're correct again. I couldn't have sold anyway since my computer was down from 6 AM until 4:15 PM, dumb luck for me. Now up $268,

-----------billy

I don't know how well you work with charts and the percentages but take a look at a website, www.thepatternsite.com. It's Bulkowski's site for chart interpretation. It's the best for learning the percentages of these chart patterns. Knowing the percentages of how these patterns are going to work out will give you a much greater edge over the long run and help in maximizing the opportunities which is very big. Taking any gains is always positive but taking more gains is more positive.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Thanks for the link. I'm trying to understand and interpret the charts better. Bulkowski is an interesting guy. He seems to be so conservative that he finds almost nothing that meets his criteria. I'd be thrilled with a 50% success rate with tight stops and nice gains on the winners.

Another buy, picked up under Morpheus' entry: 40 LNKD @105.50 stop 100.80 target 113.94

--------------billy

[billyjoe]

I've got a theory that many of you might not like. You know how they always say "don't fall in love with a stock" but usually contrast that with "learn everything you can about a company, what it does, its plans for the future, how it makes money"

The more a person studies a company the more likely they are to feel connected to the company. If they own stock it it they become financially as well as emotionally bonded, a very dangerous combination. This leads to a hesitation when a trade isn't working out. You should sell but that connection to the company tells you no, it will work out, it's a good business with good people running it , selling a good product. I say after the buy has been made, just look at the numbers, there's no bind to a number, if the numbers are right, hold on, if not, sell. I'd rather not even know other than for record keeping or having the stock symbol on hand to sell. For this reason I delete the symbols from my watch list immediately after selling. Second guessing can drive a person crazy. "I shouldn't have sold it, look at the money I'm missing out on" or Why didn't I sell earlier, look at it tank, I'm getting out of the market for good". If the trades go bad again and again, it's the method that is defective. Tweak the method until it works. Just my opinion.

------------billy

[skiracer]

I've got a theory that many of you might not like. You know how they always say "don't fall in love with a stock" but usually contrast that with "learn everything you can about a company, what it does, its plans for the future, how it makes money"

The more a person studies a company the more likely they are to feel connected to the company. If they own stock it it they become financially as well as emotionally bonded, a very dangerous combination. This leads to a hesitation when a trade isn't working out. You should sell but that connection to the company tells you no, it will work out, it's a good business with good people running it , selling a good product. I say after the buy has been made, just look at the numbers, there's no bind to a number, if the numbers are right, hold on, if not, sell. I'd rather not even know other than for record keeping or having the stock symbol on hand to sell. For this reason I delete the symbols from my watch list immediately after selling. Second guessing can drive a person crazy. "I shouldn't have sold it, look at the money I'm missing out on" or Why didn't I sell earlier, look at it tank, I'm getting out of the market for good". If the trades go bad again and again, it's the method that is defective. Tweak the method until it works. Just my opinion.

------------billy

very reasonable and logical approach Billyjoe. becoming unemotionally attached is a key ingredient and once you have mastered it you become a much better stock trader and in control of your situation.

[billyjoe]

sold 50 sh. IOC @78.62 gain 271.02

Bought 200 sh. UNG @ 19.68 target 22.60 stop 18.48


------------billy

7/24 Sold 200 sh. UNG @21.46 net gain 337.20 shaky market reason for early sale

-------------billy

[billyjoe]

Sold 40 LNKD @103.20 loss (112) in all cash

Last 32 days 6 losing trades 5 winning trades net gain 497.72

Ave. loss 6 trades 45.68 Ave. gain 5 trades 154.36 w/l ratio 3.38/1


---------------billy