Swing Trading

[riverbabe]

Post amrn, I'm trying morpheus. Jim called me too. You have set a great example.

[billyjoe]

Here's a running cumulative total of the first 25 completed trades from 6/22--9/17.
Started slowly but then got some nice wins. Am holding a couple big winners. Probably will cash out within 10 days. Losing trades in red. I'm buying in 5 separate accounts (wife,kids) so there's duplication. Also sometimes buy the same stock twice or as it goes up, a secondary entry.
All fees are accounted for in these net gains/losses.

1. LF (34.92)
2. AMLN (79.12)
3. LF (106.06)
4. LF (143.30)
5. LF (92.99)
6. LF (78.79)
7. CRAY +20.27
8. UNG +1.50
9. IOC +272.52
10. UNG +609.72
11. LNKD +497.72
12. AOS +228.93
13. CBM +288.60
14. CBM +451.04
15. CBM +565.68
16. IBB +929.12
17. AFFY +1114.24
18. AFFY +1302.36
19. JJG +1118.62
20. JJG +1003.65
21. UWM +1394.37
22. UWM +1784.17
23. ACAT +1706.24
24. ACAT +1626.64
25. TSO +1571.66

[noshadyldy]

Thanks Billy.

Impressive. Billy, why are some of the symbols in red? Whats the significance behind it?

I like your approach regarding not getting too wrapped up in the company's story but sticking to the numbers. Even great companys can take dives as we all know. It's all about the numbers in the end. Bottom line. Please continue to share your moves. I'm learning from you.

[billyjoe]

Noshady, Those in red were losing trades. You can see the cumulative total drop every time a red trade appears, but overall the number keeps growing.

-------------billy

[noshadyldy]

Sorry, Billy. I misread it. I thought the numbers were what was cleared on the trade. But now that I really look at it, that would be a bit unrealistic to say the least.

[billyjoe]

Additional trades :

Buy 500 CAMP 7.66 , 200 CAMP 7.44 sell 10/2, 8.32 net 474.61

Buy 400 ISIS 14.92, sell 10/2 13.76 loss 506.78

Buy 275 QIHU 25.22 sell 9/19 23.55 loss 498.26

Buy 440 UNG 20.02 sell 10/2 22.14 net 1350.01

Buy 100 KORS 54.57 sell 10/2 52.85 loss 192.14

Still gaining but losses too big, have to shrink them down.


-----------------billy

[skiracer]

Additional trades :

Buy 500 CAMP 7.66 , 200 CAMP 7.44 sell 10/2, 8.32 net 474.61

Buy 400 ISIS 14.92, sell 10/2 13.76 loss 506.78

Buy 275 QIHU 25.22 sell 9/19 23.55 loss 498.26

Buy 440 UNG 20.02 sell 10/2 22.14 net 1350.01

Buy 100 KORS 54.57 sell 10/2 52.85 loss 192.14

Still gaining but losses too big, have to shrink them down.


-----------------billy

cut your stoploss back to 7%. You let it go to .084% on the ISIS trade. That's another $89.78 you would have saved on the trade. On the QIHU trade you were right on the money at .071 with your stoploss. I still think you did rather good with $1824.62 in gains and $1197.18 in losses. That's $627.44 profit over the 5 trades for a winning percentage of .343%. Better than a pick and shovel and not having to leave the house. If you continue this pace you would turn $100,000 into a gain of $34300 in a pretty short period of time. That's not chicken feed. I think you could let your winners run out a bit more if you have the time to watch them and develope a plan to exit when they stall and start to give to much back. But overall I think you are doing great.

[Deaddog]

I think you could let your winners run out a bit more if you have the time to watch them and develope a plan to exit when they stall and start to give to much back.

Could you expand on that point. I'm also looking for a method to exit a winning trade when it stalls.

Right now I'm considering a 2 bar training stop. I used it today with AMT and got whipsawed. Any suggestions greatly appreciated.

DD

[skiracer]

Could you expand on that point. I'm also looking for a method to exit a winning trade when it stalls.

Right now I'm considering a 2 bar training stop. I used it today with AMT and got whipsawed. Any suggestions greatly appreciated.

DD

There are several things involving emotional control that I see as part of the set of items that are the most important in being a successful trader. Two of the most important are honoring your stoplosses. By that I mean being able to walk away from any trade taking the loss and putting it behind you and being able to block that out from your emotions in a way that it doesn't cloud your judgement and your future trades. Once you're out your out and it's history. The only significance it should have either on the winning or losing side is the learning experience. Bookmark that and let the rest of it go.

The second of the two is exiting a winning trade. Maximizing the effort in my mind means getting the most from the trade. How to do that is the question. I watch the chart, the candlesticks, and the volume constantly when I have a winning trade in place for indications that it is stalling and the upward run, for the time being, may be over. When it is in the process of moving up I let them run out always having in mind my predetermined exit point. That point is only a number that I have determined by perhaps a Fib percentage line or by some other line of resistance like a moving average or a significant previous high. But that point is not written in stone and if the move takes the stock higher than that point I let it run until I see some indication that the end is near. At that point I make a decision in my mind that I am going to exit the trade at some value or price below that actual price that I am willing to give back from my gains. In that way I am protecting my gains and giving the trade the opportunity to continue farther up. Either way is a win win position because I am not going to let it go past a point lower than my initial predetermined target price, which keeps my predetermined plan in effect, and I'm not going to miss out on any opportunities. Either way once I do exit the trade, and this is the most important part of the emotional control facet, as with the first point the trade is over and done and out of my mind. I don't dwell on any part of the trade other than the experience and what I may have learned from the trade. I never dwell on should have could have or what might have been. It's over and history and I'm only thinking of the next trade. I don't let what should have been or could have been cloud my mind or my thinking process.

It's my opinion that to be able to do this you have to be in a position to physically watch your ongoing trades while they are open. You have to be able to sit in front of your computer or there in your home or office while the markets are open. You can to some degree set a stop once the trade goes past your predetermined target price but I find that nothing beats being there real time.

I don't know what it takes or how to explain how you can develop that type of emotional control to be able to put something as personal as the specific aspects of trading out of one's mind and move on. I don't know where that control comes from. Some people are born with it and others can develop it with practice. I think a large part of it is a lack of respect for money and bigger than that is the desire to win and be right. With that type of control comes a host of other personal issues!

[Deaddog]

Ski: A well thought out and well written response.

Thank you for your time and effort. Please feel free to critique any of my trades in the Lazy Dog thread.

[billyjoe]

Additional trades :

Buy 500 CAMP 7.66 , 200 CAMP 7.44 sell 10/2, 8.32 net 474.61

Buy 400 ISIS 14.92, sell 10/2 13.76 loss 506.78

Buy 275 QIHU 25.22 sell 9/19 23.55 loss 498.26

Buy 440 UNG 20.02 sell 10/2 22.14 net 1350.01

Buy 100 KORS 54.57 sell 10/2 52.85 loss 192.14

Still gaining but losses too big, have to shrink them down.


-----------------billy

Correction, The entire gains for all the winning trades this post was 1350.01. The gains for UNG were 875.40. I'm juggling these stocks in 4 different accounts and copied the wrong columns. Master list is in front of me so if I buy the same stock for my wife and son's Roth, I won't forget to get rid of them at the same time if trade turns bad. Good advice to write off stock and not look back. I erase sold stocks from my watch lists so it doesn't get me second guessing sells.

------------billy

[morpheustrading]

An Emerging Market ETF Setting Up To Move Sharply Higher ($GXG)

Hello everyone,

As I was recently invited by several members of this site to start becoming active on MrMarketIsHuge, I will start posting technical analysis of stock and ETF swing trading setups, probably at least several times per week. I hope you all will enjoy and find the information to be informative. I look forward to any comments or questions. Below is my first post (please send me a message if I am posting this stuff on the wrong message board if it would be better for me to start my own board):

Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ($GXG), an international ETF, was initially listed in the ETF trading section of our newsletter a few weeks ago, due to the strong base of consolidation that was forming on the weekly chart. Presently, we still like the price action of $GXG, and its weekly chart continues to show bullish price action after breaking above the 10 and 40-week moving averages in early September. The current base building action is shown on the weekly chart pattern of GXG below:



$GXG may still need another week or two of basing action above its 10 and 40-week moving averages, as well as new support of its prior swing highs from July, before breaking out. As such, we do not yet have a low-risk entry point in this ETF swing trade setup, but we will continue to monitor the action closely. Here’s a closer look at recent price action on the shorter-term daily chart:



Original source

[skiracer]

Hello everyone,

As I was recently invited by several members of this site to start becoming active on MrMarketIsHuge, I will start posting technical analysis of stock and ETF swing trading setups, probably at least several times per week. I hope you all will enjoy and find the information to be informative. I look forward to any comments or questions. Below is my first post (please send me a message if I am posting this stuff on the wrong message board if it would be better for me to start my own board):

Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ($GXG), an international ETF, was initially listed in the ETF trading section of our newsletter a few weeks ago, due to the strong base of consolidation that was forming on the weekly chart. Presently, we still like the price action of $GXG, and its weekly chart continues to show bullish price action after breaking above the 10 and 40-week moving averages in early September. The current base building action is shown on the weekly chart pattern of GXG below:



$GXG may still need another week or two of basing action above its 10 and 40-week moving averages, as well as new support of its prior swing highs from July, before breaking out. As such, we do not yet have a low-risk entry point in this ETF swing trade setup, but we will continue to monitor the action closely. Here’s a closer look at recent price action on the shorter-term daily chart:



Original source

What chart service are you using?

[billyjoe]

Deron, Anything you want to post will be appreciated. Skiracer told us about Morpheus about 2 years ago, maybe more. Several from this site are checking out your service. Thanks for contributing.

------------billy

[morpheustrading]

charting service

The charts you see in this post are from TradeStation, which i highly recommend.

I also sometimes post charts that are from our own technical stock screener software (which is presently free).

What chart service are you using?