Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

It’s been about six months since I posted my long term stocks list, and I thought I would see how they are performing. I own all of the stocks in the list. Some I bought around December 28th, and some I owned before December 28th. For the purposes of this discussion, I am using December 28th as the starting point for all of them and yesterday’s close as the end point. Here’s the list and how they have performed:

Stock	12/28/2018	6/6/2018	% Gain/Loss
AAPL	157.5	185.22	17.60%
AAXN	43.04	67.97	57.92%
AMZN	1473.35	1754.36	19.07%
ANET	207.78	257.18	23.78%
AYX	60.18	91.22	51.58%
DATA	120.53	117.1	-2.85%
DOCU	40.99	54.74	33.54%
EDIT	20.65	20.58	-0.34%
FB	135.34	168.33	24.38%
ISRG	472.12	485.24	2.78%
LYV	49.08	62.01	26.34%
MTCH	42.62	70.73	65.95%
MA	189.71	257.83	35.91%
MDB	83.45	147.74	77.04%
NVDA	132	141.45	7.16%
OKTA	62.75	123.57	96.92%
SQ	56.7	65.77	16.00%
TDOC	48.76	54.27	11.30%
TEAM	88.21	127.71	44.78%
TTD	115.12	237.26	106.10%
TWLO	88	139.63	58.67%
Total Return			36.84%
S&P Return			13.79%

There are some stellar performers in the list and a few disappointments. My biggest disappointment (by far) is DATA, from which I expected much bigger things. I am not ready to bail on it though as I still believe the potential is there. EDIT was the only other loser, but I knew I would have to be patient with that one. There is tremendous potential for the CRSPR technology they have developed, but it will likely take years for the technology to mature and make a market. The bottom line is that I am not ready to prune any of these stocks from my portfolio. I’m happy with the overall performance. I have a number of additional stocks in my portfolio, most of which I held prior to December 28th, 2018 (I have added a few since). If you’re interested, here are the additional stocks I currently hold in my long term portfolio:
ABMD, APPN, BIDU, BRK/B, CGNX, GH, MELI, NTNX, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, TCEHY, TREX, TTWO, VEEV, ZEN

Good luck in your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Good luck with it, Louetta.

[Louetta]

Bought a smidge of TWLO. Revenue for the quarter/year and guidance looked encouraging to me.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447669/000115752319000307/a51939691ex99_1.htm

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on NVDA

NVDA

Everyone knows Nvidia (NVDA) as a designer of graphics chips for PCs. Because some of their graphics chips are at the very high end of performance, they are also associated with the most demanding of graphics applications such as VR and gaming. Is that why I like this company so much? Well, yes and no. VR and gaming certainly present appealing opportunities for growth, but I have other reasons for liking NVDA. It just so happens that NVDA is also a major provider of chips for data centers and AI applications, both of which are areas in which there is a huge potential for growth. Almost in the shadows, NVDA has been growing its data center revenue at an astonishing rate. Last quarter the year-over-year growth was over 70%, and this is just the beginning. NVDA’s opportunity in the data center market has been pegged to be around $30B, or almost three times their current total annual revenue. Wow. And just as AI is on the verge of a major breakout, NVDA is positioned to be a dominant player. That’s because NVDA, with their massively parallel processors, is better positioned to support AI and deep learning applications than any other company. NVDA’s graphics processing units (GPUs) have thousands of cores as opposed to the 8-16 cores of high end central processing units (CPUs). In fact, NVDA’s GPUs have proven to be about 10 times more effective than traditional CPUs for AI tasks. This is why they are in such demand for applications such as autonomous automobiles. NVDA’s opportunities in data center and AI paint a very appealing growth opportunity, and there is no bigger driver of share price than growth.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DATA, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, SQ, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

Bold=Write Up Available

[billyjoe]

My auto mechanic uses SQ. I asked him what he thought of it. He had nothing but praise for Square as he says they have great communication, almost no problems, no long term contracts, as well as lower fees and very little paperwork with no small print. Watching MA triple in the last 3 years I'm sure SQ will at least match MA's record.

-------------------billy

[Louetta]

I enjoyed the SQ write-up, since I own it in real life.

Would be very interested in your thoughts on NVDA. Seems to have leveled off some at just about 50% of the beginning October high.

[BlueWolf]

Should I continue to discuss the stocks on my long term investment list? I don’t want to spam up this thread, but if anyone finds the information useful, I will continue my breakdowns.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DATA, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, SQ, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

Bold=Discussed

[Louetta]

Bought a PNC call of 1/15/2021 $85 strike with the stock at $122.30. PNC is a new Buffett position from third quarter 2018, down from $163 last February, up from $108 last December. Per Schwab PE of 11.5, dividend of 3.10% (which I of course won't get). Depending on Buffett to produce a winner. Got two years. Went down to $85 to minimize the premium. Natch I tie up more money.

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on MA

MA

I am going to keep my Mastercard (MA) pitch succinct and just say this: MA is one of those companies like AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG that should probably be part of every long term portfolio. What they offer, people will be needing for the foreseeable future, and they have established a tried and true track record of growth.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DATA, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, SQ, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

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[BlueWolf]

Write Up on SQ

Continuing on (I’m Starting to fatigue, though) ...

SQ

Square (SQ) provides payment processing services to merchants, along with related credit services. Somewhere along your merry little shopping way, you’ve probably encountered a Square reader. The first readers were clever little devices able to process credit card payments using the headphone jack of your mobile devices. Now, however, their offerings include countertop POS terminals as well as a contactless reader. There is no question that the market segment Square serves, i.e., micro merchants, has been craving solutions like those offered by SQ. SQ’s 5 yr 61% revenue growth attests to that. The big question many analysts have about SQ is whether or not it can continue to sustain such a blistering pace as the company approaches profitability. Consider this, however: Only 5% of SQ’s revenue currently comes from outside the US. That alone should clue you in to how much potential their is for continuing growth. Even Morningstar’s somewhat conservative projections have SQ growing revenue at a CAGR of 30% over the next five years. Also consider the opportunities SQ has for penetrating upstream segments. According to Morningstar: “At this point, a little more than half of the company’s gross payment volume comes from merchants generating more than $125,000 in annual gross payment volume. This is roughly where these merchants start to become viable for more traditional acquirers. We believe Square’s suite of offerings, quick start-up time, and simplified pricing will allow it to attract enough merchants above the $125,000 level to scale and reach an attractive overall return.” This is a growth story worth taking note off.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DATA, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, SQ, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

Bold=Write Up Available

[BlueWolf]

Facebook has the largest repository of sensitive information this side of the NSA and the Chinese cybercrime .... er ... security services. A private collection of this kind of information is unique in all of human history. The difficulty Facebook faces, other than trying to PR their way out of gaffe after gaffe, is figuring out ways to monetize this information. This has always been the challenge for Facebook. Let’s face it, they’re after the holy grail of commerce. Companies have always tried to collect information about their customers in order to shape and target their marketing, but no one has ever collected this kind of detailed information at these scales. This is what makes them unique and differentiates them from other social services like Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, etc. None of them have access to or collect the breadth and depth of information that Facebook does. Heck, criminals even brag about their crimes on Facebook, and I’m sure law enforcement officials everywhere have their bibs on and wait impatiently at the Facebook table to slurp up the gravy they’re delivering.

Yup, the commodity Facebook sells is information, not advertising, and if history has taught us anything, it’s that people will pay anything for information. The uniqueness of Facebook is not only do they have information, they can cross reference it with a million other pieces of information that we have all willingly given them. Facebook is what Google Analytics wants to be when it grows up. And I don’t care what lies Zuckerberg tells about not selling your information to others. They may not be doing it directly, but they’re still doing it. Don’t third parties harvest information from Facebook now? And don’t they pay Facebook for this privilege? It’s transitive, but the bottom line is that Facebook IS selling your information. It’s just blurry enough to allow Zuckerberg to appear before Congress and claim “I ain’t selling nobody’s information, Congressman.” No, what they’re doing is selling others a way to gather it themselves, and oh, BTW, they just happen to have a snazzy little API to help them collate it all.

The only way Facebook fails, IMHO, is if they get too brazen about what they are really doing and just totally piss off the base. Then, a massive virtual mob will storm the electronic Facebook citadel and demand it be burned to the ground ... until, of course, they see those cute little baby pictures ... ooh soooo cute ... what was I doing? ... never mind ... BIG like. For whatever it’s worth, the cynic in me says Facebook is the goose with the golden egg.

[Louetta]

Billy mentioned facebook back on 8/27/2013 when it was $41.50. I still don't see where they will make money besides ads. No one spends any money on there. I have the same thoughts as before so I'll repost my response at the time.

I'm not sure what to think of Facebook. During the IPO I subscribed to the bear case that they were completely overvalued because they didn't make enough money yo justify their market cap. Now I'm skeptical to the bear case, and wonder if they can monetize their HUGE traffic. Also, I can picture a future where everyone across the world using the internet also uses Facebook. People in America will talk to their friends in Europe and Asia or Australia and post pictures and videos and stuff. I just wish I could see clearly where the money would come from besides advertising. It's on my list for a long term investment, but I want to wait for more evidence before buying. Also, the stock is a little hot right now and the market is overvalued. I'm confident I will get a chance to buy it lower sometime in the next 2 years.

I don't own Facebook because I see the original Facebook utility fading into obscurity and fear Instagram may also at some point taper off and what do they do next? I'm talking years from now.

But right now the amount of data they have on 100s of millions of users is a valuable commodity and they will sell it, methinks, anyway they can as long as the law allows to any app that wants to pay. They are excellent at targeting an audience.

[antioch6]

Antioch, I'm buying FB at this level for a long term investment. I've lost before getting in too early but now FB shows signs of being another long term runner.

--------------billy

Billy mentioned facebook back on 8/27/2013 when it was $41.50. I still don't see where they will make money besides ads. No one spends any money on there. I have the same thoughts as before so I'll repost my response at the time.

I'm not sure what to think of Facebook. During the IPO I subscribed to the bear case that they were completely overvalued because they didn't make enough money yo justify their market cap. Now I'm skeptical to the bear case, and wonder if they can monetize their HUGE traffic. Also, I can picture a future where everyone across the world using the internet also uses Facebook. People in America will talk to their friends in Europe and Asia or Australia and post pictures and videos and stuff. I just wish I could see clearly where the money would come from besides advertising. It's on my list for a long term investment, but I want to wait for more evidence before buying. Also, the stock is a little hot right now and the market is overvalued. I'm confident I will get a chance to buy it lower sometime in the next 2 years.

[BlueWolf]

Write Up On FB

I added FB today to my long term portfolio today. I like the valuation here, and I wanted to buy it here while it’s still lingering before it broke out (or with my luck, broke down ). FB was one of the positions I sold off back in Oct, when I thinned my holdings, so it was time to add it back. I also bought it with real money because it was my POY and how much could I believe in it if I didn’t really own it. I’ll add it to my list, but the only write up I will do is here. Quite simply I’m buying it for the same reason I did before: its 2B user installed base, the largest in the world. I’m betting they will keep finding ways to monetize that base.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DATA, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, SQ, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

Bold=Write Up Available

[antioch6]

I'm going to bring the stock LPL today. It's a South Korean electronics company. They make great affordable products but have been going through a downturn since last year. The stock is down from $17 in 2017 now at $9.13. The time to buy looks like now and I will be recklessly buying 3,000 shares tomorrow.