Stocks for the Long Term

[BlueWolf]

Writeup on TTD

TEAM

The Trade Desk Inc (TTD) is one of my favorite investments and has done very well for me in the time I have held it (well before I started my list in December, 201. TTD is engaged in providing a technology platform for ad buyers. Their product is a self-service platform that enables clients to purchase and manage data-driven digital advertising campaigns using their own teams. This platform allows clients to manage integrated advertising campaigns across various advertising formats, including display, video and social, and on a multitude of devices, including computers, mobile devices and connected TV, an approach that TTD refers to as “omnichannel.” Not only is the TTD platform capable of supporting almost any format you can think off, it cleverly uses data analytics to select the optimal channels for each client. Moreover, it is a dynamic platform that can adjust each campaign as the situation dictates. In short, this is targeted advertising on steroids.

So what has the market reception been for TTDs products and services? Well, in five years the company has grown revenue from $44.55M in FY2014 to $477.29M in FY2018. That’s a 971% increase! And they quickly went from burning cash to an EPS of $1.92 in FY2018. Growth has admittedly slowed for FY2019, but they are still on track for revenue of $512.61. One of things that most impresses me though is that in all six of its prior quarters TTD has beaten the street’s expectations, something that has helped propel the share price from the low $40’s to $250 today over the span of just 18 months. Obviously, TTD is onto something very big and I think they still have a lot of room to grow in an enormous market. TTD is slowly becoming a gold standard in the advertising industry, and I can easily see this company becoming a multi billion dollar juggernaut over the next several years. That’s the kind of story I like to invest in.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO
Bold = Write up available

Other stocks in which I have a position: ABMD, APPN, BIDU, BRK/B, CGNX, GH, MELI, NTNX, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, TREX, TTWO, VEEV, ZEN, ZM

Stocks in which I currently have high interest: CRSP, RVLV, ZS

[BlueWolf]

Competition is of course a very valid point. It's not a very rigorous test but, since they say Revolve is using an influencer strategy, I searched on various sites for Kendall and Kylie bikinis (Kylie being the world's youngest self-made billionaire). Kohl's shows none. Walmart shows one top, no bottoms. Amazon shows a good inventory as does Revolve. Interestingly enough the prices are almost exactly the same (about $30 for each of the two pieces, about half regular price - now IS the time to buy swimwear). So methinks the key is in sticking to the kind of fashion stuff you can't get at mass marketers. (Amazon being an exception. They seem to be able to compete with anybody on anything.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. The big differentiator between them and someone like Amazon is the “influencer strategy.” Though I admittedly understand very little about fashion, it sure seems like using an influencer strategy is spot on. They’re also appear to be using data analytics very astutely and have done a great job with their online UX which has led to a very high retention rate. According to their S-1, they “retained 89% of net sales from the prior year’s customers.” That’s pretty phenomenal customer loyalty, and certainly suggests that they are attracting the right people to their portal(s) and that their customers are pleased with their buying experience(s). I would think that the latter is very important in the world of fashion. This sure looks like a grower to me, but I do have to ask myself one question: Is this company built for long term growth? I can’t say that I honestly understand what it takes to carve out a large, long-term slice of the retail fashion market. Give me a pair of cargo pants, a pair of sneakers, and a t-shirt with a picture of a wolf on it and I consider myself well-dressed. 😉 So while my technical, not-fashion-informed take tells me this company looks good for both the near and long term, but I‘d be interested to hear any contrarian (sell-side?) takes.

[Louetta]

RVLV does look good. How many competitors are in the same industry? Will they be able to outlast an onslaught of online retailers? They seem to have a great headstart . Time will tell.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-soaring-ipo-creates-1-173824918.html

---------------------billy

Competition is of course a very valid point. It's not a very rigorous test but, since they say Revolve is using an influencer strategy, I searched on various sites for Kendall and Kylie bikinis (Kylie being the world's youngest self-made billionaire). Kohl's shows none. Walmart shows one top, no bottoms. Amazon shows a good inventory as does Revolve. Interestingly enough the prices are almost exactly the same (about $30 for each of the two pieces, about half regular price - now IS the time to buy swimwear). So methinks the key is in sticking to the kind of fashion stuff you can't get at mass marketers. (Amazon being an exception. They seem to be able to compete with anybody on anything.

[BlueWolf]

Read the first 10 pages (summary) of the RVLV S-1. It’s very impressive.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1746618/000119312519157516/d669074ds1a.htm

[billyjoe]

RVLV does look good. How many competitors are in the same industry? Will they be able to outlast an onslaught of online retailers? They seem to have a great headstart . Time will tell.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-soaring-ipo-creates-1-173824918.html

---------------------billy

[Louetta]

Got my eye on a couple of stocks right now, ZS and RVLV. I’m more interested in ZS as a possible long term investment, but RVLV intrigues me. ZS was a 2018 IPO and RVLV IPO’d just last month. Been looking at ZS for a while, always hesitating to pull the trigger. I did the same thing with TWLO a while back, and after I took a position, I was glad I did. I’m thinking ...

RVLV looks interesting to me. Might be the industry they're in.

Prospectus shows three years of nicely increasing revenue and they are making money.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1746618/000119312519168155/d669074d424b4.htm#rom669074_10

[BlueWolf]

Got my eye on a couple of stocks right now, ZS and RVLV. I’m more interested in ZS as a possible long term investment, but RVLV intrigues me. ZS was a 2018 IPO and RVLV IPO’d just last month. Been looking at ZS for a while, always hesitating to pull the trigger. I did the same thing with TWLO a while back, and after I took a position, I was glad I did. I’m thinking ...

[BlueWolf]

Hi Billy,

I used VectorVest many years ago. What do you think of it now? Does it help you with your trades?

[Louetta]

"Ask and ye shall receive" God


Louetta, Vectorvest lists 220 cannabis stocks. IIPR is the only one that pays a dividend. Also IIPR is the only one with a "buy" rating with 60 listed as "hold" and 159 as "sell". Not as great an industry as hype would suggest.

------------------billy

It's coming along some. There's a really nice shop near me.

http://www.healthypharms.org/

They even have their own payment app: CanPay since they can't take credit cards. It's medical only right now but no worries. I got a license for tennis elbow and I don't even play tennis.

[billyjoe]

Gosh. Wonder how many cannabis stocks pay a dividend.

"Ask and ye shall receive" God


Louetta, Vectorvest lists 220 cannabis stocks. IIPR is the only one that pays a dividend. Also IIPR is the only one with a "buy" rating with 60 listed as "hold" and 159 as "sell". Not as great an industry as hype would suggest.

------------------billy

[Louetta]

Bought some IIPR today. I did my due diligence, and I liked what I saw. This is my first Cannabis play.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA,OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

_{Bold=Write Up Available}

Gosh. Wonder how many cannabis stocks pay a dividend.

[BlueWolf]

Bought IIPR

Bought some IIPR today. I did my due diligence, and I liked what I saw. This is my first Cannabis play.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA,OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

_{Bold=Write Up Available}

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on TEAM

TEAM

Atlassian Corporation PLC (TEAM) makes a suite of powerful tools that designed to assist software development organizations with the design, development, licensing and maintenance of their software products. Some of their tools include ...
Jira: A tool design to help organizations plan, track, and release world-class software within an Agile framework.
Confluence: A tool for organizing work, creating documents, and discuss everything in one place.
BitBucket: A tool for collaborating and managing Git repositories as a team.
HipChat: A tool for team messaging and communications.
Bamboo: A tool for continuous integration, deployment, and release management.
Jira Service Desk: A tool that provides customers with an easy way to ask for help and that provides service agents a fast way to resolve incidents.

Now I’ll be the first to admit that software development support tools and suites are a dime a dozen. So what makes TEAM’s products so special? Well, first of all, they are used by just about everyone from Fortune 500 companies to government instructions. NASA used them to develop the Mars lander. Cochlear used them to develop its aural implants. Even outfits as disparate as Toyota and Kaiser Permanente use them. And then there is compatibility. Not only do their tools work together seamlessly to cover the entire development and deployment lifecycle, they also work together with industry standards such as Oracle, Microsoft Office, SOAP, and, of course, the web. Heck, they even work together with Android and iOS based smart phones. Oh, and did I mention that it all works in the cloud? It’s basically collaboration anywhere, at any time, for just about any reason.

So how is TEAM doing with this world killer of a product lineup? In the previous five fiscal years, TEAM’s revenue has grown from $220M in FY2014 to $870M in FY2018. That’s a 295% improvement and a five year CAGR of 31.6%. In 2019, they are on track for $1.12B. That’s a YoY improvement of 29%, so growth continues to be solid. Their EPS is still negative, so they are burning cash, but this is not uncommon for early stage, growth-oriented companies. The good news is that their investment into R&D and sales has scaled up by almost a factor of six since FY2014. That’s how you fuel growth. How about share price? Well, since TEAM’S IPO in late 2015, the share price has grown from $27.67 to its current level of $133.36, a whopping 382% improvement in a little over three and a half years. All in all, that’s how you spell growth, and I think there is a lot more to come for TEAM.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO

[BlueWolf]

Thought I’d share this exciting article about CRISPR technology. Of course, I’m biased as I own one of the two big CRISPR tech companies, EDIT. The other, CRSP, has been on my LT radar for a while, but I haven’t pulled the trigger on it yet since I already own EDIT and want to stay a little diversified. If you have an interest in biotech as an investment, I recommend you take a look at EDIT and CRSP for the long term. You might have to be patient, but there is some exciting tech in these companies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/researchers-used-crispr-technology-to-cure-hiv-in-living-mice.html

[BlueWolf]

Write Up on TDOC

TDOC

Teladoc Health Inc (TDOC) is a “telehealth” platform that delivers 24-hour, on-demand healthcare via mobile devices, the Internet, video, and phone. Its platform connects members with a network of physicians and behavioral health professionals. TDOC receives the majority of its revenue from subscription access fees. It has partnered with employers, health plans, and health systems to create a base of over 26 million subscribers. TDOC is a bit more of a speculative play than many others on my list. I just believe they are onto something. Connecting medical practitioners with patients electronically makes a lot of sense. It’s an effective way to reduce costs while still getting medical service to patients that do not require emergency attention. Heck, I use it since it is included with my Blue Shield insurance. So how well has TDOC’s model been doing overall? Starting from a revenue base of $19.9M in FY2013, TDOC had grown into a $417.8 company by FY2018. They are on track for $456.84 for FY2019. That’s 2,196% growth in just 7 years with a CAGR of 56.5%! Unfortunately, that’s not all there is to the story. TDOC has been reinvesting its revenue into its continued growth, so it doesn’t yet have anything to show in it’s bottom line. It’s on track for a FY2019 EPS of -$1.51, which is a decent cash burn considering they have almost 70M shares outstanding. Also, while revenue and its subscriber base continue to grow at an impressive rate, growth has been decelerating. In fairness, that’s a little to be expected when you reach the size of TDOC, but when investors see a CAGR of 50+% they get a little spoiled and can punish a stock for not maintaining the same level of frenetic growth. The bottom line is that this is not a stock without risks, but you know how I love growth stories, and I just happen to believe that the growth story here is far from being over. Even if the stock get punished in the short term for slowing growth, I believe investors will eventually wise up, and as TDOC’s bottom line improves, the share price will catch up with its groundbreaking accomplishments.

AAPL, AAXN, AMZN, ANET, AYX, DOCU, EDIT, FB, ISRG, LYV, MTCH, MA, MDB, NVDA, OKTA, TDOC, TEAM, TTD, TWLO
Bold = Write up available