Stocks for the Long Term

[billyjoe]

I stopped going to Big Lots when they went nearly 100% Chinese made. Ollies is like an early Big Lots. Actual great bargains on overstock merch. Only place I've found size 12-16 socks at less than half price. Good for lawn fertilizer and Preen also. I didn't realize OLLI had an over 4 bil. market cap.

-----------------------billy

[BlueWolf]

Thank you for the update. OLLI is an interesting choice, opening lots of new stores, looks like a good entry point.

OLLI is a great growth story with lots of upside potential. There may be some concerns that their expenses have ramped up, which has slowed growth in their EPS even though revenue grew 15% last YoY. Then again, they’re using that money to fund their growth, so I’m OK with it. It sure looks like they’re positioning themselves for solid long term growth, i.e. they’re managing for the big picture. It also doesn’t hurt that they’re actually a little undervalued. In fact, they may be the only 4 or 5 star Morningstar stock that I currently own because, as an aggressive growth investor, I tend to buy into stocks with valuations skewed to the high side.

[Louetta]

Thank you for the update. OLLI is an interesting choice, opening lots of new stores, looks like a good entry point.

[BlueWolf]

I sold off a few (mostly losing) positions because of volatility, and I added a few speculative (half) positions, so my portfolio has been a little shaken up. For what it’s worth here are my current positions along with stocks I am watching for possible addition. For those stocks I own and did not do a write up on, I will try and write then up when I have time, but right now I am devoting a lot of my free time to arpeggios, chord tones, and my beautiful baby granddaughter.

Current LT positions*:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CGNX, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, FB, FICO, GH, INSP, ISRG, LYV, MA, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Current LT Candidates (some have run away from me ):
AMT, APPF, BRK/B, CME, CRM, CRSP, DDOG, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LOB, MASI, MSFT, NEE, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, SPLK, SNPS, STNE, WD, WORK

* Bold = Write Up Available

[Louetta]

I notice both did well yesterday. I worry about charts of various stocks since Labor Day. A lot have gotten clobbered. Why? I don't think it has anything to do with the companies. More likely the general disenchantment with IPOs. Also I got up at 5 this morning and the Dow was indicated up 38. Now at 5:30 it's indicated down 78 because of a tweet or something by someone that the Chinese will not sign an agreement with Trump. I look at FSLY, CRWD, IIPR, ZM, EDIT, RVLV, AYX recently and can't figure out what's happening.

[BlueWolf]

Boy good luck with them.

😊 I admit that it may be a little early with ZM, but I like them because they’re a phenomenal growth story with a lot of potential in an enormous market. For example, last quarter revenue grew by almost 100% YoY and their EPS beat estimates by 700%. Revenue has grown from $60.8M for FY 2020 to $330.5M for FY 2019 and is expected to hit $463.7M for FY 2020. What is even more amazing is that they are already profitable despite the fact that they only IPO’d in April. They’ve also almost doubled the number of customers in the last 12 months and generated a net dollar expansion rate above 130% for the fifth quarter in a row. There is real growth story here that seems unappreciated (so far). Moreover, the global video conferencing market size was valued at USD 3.4 billion in 2017 and is expected expand at a CAGR of 9.2% from 2018 to 2025, which provides an awful lot of headroom for this company. I think the stock took a hit because of valuation concerns, but I’m still a strong believer that growth fuels share price and this a high growth company that is still generating ridiculous growth numbers. I’ve been wrong before, and only time will tell for sure, but I like the story at ZM, and I’m willing to take shot on a few stocks like this because of their potential to become multi-baggers. The story at WORK isn’t as compelling, but it’s still strong. I am also familiar with their product and see their market penetration continuing to improve. Still haven’t pulled the trigger on WORK, though, because of market concerns. Normally, I would be more aggressive.

[Louetta]

Boy good luck with them.

[BlueWolf]

I have pruned a few positions out of my long term holdings, but I’m still holding tight with the majority of my positions. One that I am still holding is ZM, in which I have a 1/2 position that is currently under water. Despite the drop in price, I like this company for the long term. I’m thinking I might buy another 1/2 position here because the price is so discounted at current levels. Another beaten down stock I really like as a possible long term investment is WORK. I don’t own it yet, but it also looks heavily discounted and could be a buy at current levels. Do your own research and see what you think. Just putting out some ideas for you to consider.

One cautionary note: Though the market has been a little bullish over the last week, the rally of the last few days has not necessarily been broad based. For example, in the S&P, which made a new all-time high today, only 8% of participating stocks also made new highs. I have also attached an interesting chart that plots the split between the S&P and stocks above their 50 day moving average (courtesy of IndexInvestors.com).

https://www.dropbox.com/s/wfh42gk9giipol8/Photo%20Oct%2029%2C%203%2034%2003%20PM.png?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Been closing positions selectively over the last several days. I don’t like the feel of market right now.

[billyjoe]

My current short list for the long term: PGR, CE, MA, ABR, AMZN, ULTA

---------------------billy

[Louetta]

Good list. I admire your resolution. I had good luck with STNE earlier this year, very similar to the Mr. Market pick PAGS and a pick of one of Buffett's lieutenants which helped give it a push.

[BlueWolf]

I had added a few positions (EEFT, EPAM, FB, MA, and WIX), including some 1/2 positions, a couple of weeks ago before I backed off buying. I’m sitting on these positions a little nervously with some draw down, but I like all these outfits for the long term.

Here are my current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, ANET, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CRWD, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, FB, FICO, FSLY, GH, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MA, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, PANW, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SHOP, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Here is my updated LT watchlist, i.e. stocks I am considering for long term holds (there are a number of new entries here):
BRK/B, CGNX, CRM, CRSP, GOOS, IIVI, KNSL, LITE, MASI, NEE, NOW, NTNX, OLLI, PYPL, RGEN, SNPS, STNE, WD, ZUO

Bold - Write Up Available

[BlueWolf]

Added 1/2 positions in ZM and ZS.

LT Holdings:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, ANET, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CRWD, EDIT, FICO, FSLY, GH, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, PANW, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SHOP, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, ZEN, ZM, ZS

LT Watchlist:
BRK/B, CGNX, CRSP, DOCU, FB, IIVI, LITE, MA, MASI, NEE, NTNX, OLLI, SNPS, WIX

[Louetta]

Off to a good start in CRWD and FICO.

[BlueWolf]

I took a half position in CRWD today. This is a fairly recent IPO and is in a very competitive space, but I like their technology and story. I also like and had previously owned competitor ZS. ZS has taken a pounding recently, but the silver lining is that it looks attractive at this valuation. If I can convince myself that there is still a growth story there, I will take a 1/2 position in ZS too as a hedge.

I also took a 1/2 position in FICO. It’s not a burner, but it’s a steady earner and you need a few of those, e.g. like MA or V, in your portfolio.

I’d really like to get back into DOCU and MA, but I am looking for the right entry.

Also, I’m adding OLLI and WIX to my watchlist.

LT Holdings:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, ANET, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CRWD, EDIT, FICO, FSLY, GH, IIPR, ISRG, LYV, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, PANW, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SHOP, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, ZEN

LT Watchlist:
BRK/B, CGNX, CRSP, DOCU, FB, IIVI, LITE, MA, MASI, NEE, NTNX, OLLI, SNPS, WIX, ZM, ZS