Stocks for the Long Term

[Louetta]

I read your stuff all the time, look at the stuff and try to make comments. I would make more comments but fear looking like a busy-body. Next to Ernie's write-ups I think your two threads are the best we have. Refreshing to read people posting original content. I maintain a Yahoo portfolio based on the stocks you list in your current positions to help me keep abreast of where money seems to be going and watch for a change which, as you often point out, will someday come.

[BlueWolf]

Well, I know I’m being a pain, but I did some more reallocation today. I sold my entire position in one of my under-performers, ESTC, and put the money into two new half positions in CRSP and WORK. I like ETSC’s product very much, and I am heavily invested in the data mining space, but I am starting to see too many competitive pressures on ESTC and in their last earnings they failed to duplicate the success of rivals such as DDOG and SPLK. When a growth stock goes off the rails, it’s usually time to get out.

Speaking of that, I had initially held some WORK, but sold it when I grew concerned over competitive pressure from MSFT. It seems like WORK is holding up well in it’s space, however, and guidance looks encouraging, so I am back on board. As for CRSP, this is one of those home run stocks I have liked for a while. I was just waiting for a good time to get it. I should have pulled the trigger a few days ago, and as a result of waiting, I missed an optimal entry. Still I like this stock and along with EDIT, it now gives me some real skin in the gene editing game. AMT is the other stock I really wanted in on, but I may have waiting too long as it spiked up this week. I don’t like to chase entires. It was a beautiful entry while it was basing. Stupid me. Speaking of a stock that looks like it is basing and ready for another leg up, check out V, a staple in many well rounded portfolios.

I also shook up my watchlist a little once again. I still might do some more reallocation in the days ahead. I‘ll keep posting updates as long as anyone is interested. Once I hear crickets, I will let it go.

Here’s where I stand now.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), CRSP(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), WORK(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, ANET, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BKNG, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, V

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

Things are starting to look up at the company and the chart is getting interesting so I am adding ANET back to my watchlist. I’m taking a hard look at some of the under-performers in my positions, and I might do a few re-allocations. I am finally beating the S&P, however, so I don’t want to shake things up too much. In fact, I wouldn’t mind adding to a few of my existing positions.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG, DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, ANET, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

I did another small reallocation today, closing my half position in OLLI and opening a half position in NVTA. OLLI has been a major disappointment after having such potential when I first looked at it. It always been my philosophy to cut losers loose, however, and put the money back into winners so the time had come to cut OLLI loose. NVTA intrigues me. I considered both NVTA and FLGT, who are both in the genetic diagnostic testing space, but NVTA’s revenue story seemed more compelling. NVTA had first caught my eye when Citron wrote a buy opinion on the company back in August, 2019. Recently Motley Fool jumped on the bandwagon, and after digging into the financials and seeing some interesting movement in the chart, I decided to pull the trigger. Here are my updated lists.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, NVTA(.5), OKTA, PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

A few additions to my watchlist. Thinking about buying one real soon, maybe even tomorrow. I have my eye on two stocks in particular. When I do add, I will probably do so through re-allocation rather than new capital, but we’ll see.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BILI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FLGT, FRPT, FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, NVTA, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TLRA, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

Well, I definitely wouldn’t enter it now, but last week it was obviously a buy. I know that’s one giant spinning top on the daily now, but don’t be surprised if it starts consolidating sideways. I’ll continue to keep an eye on it to see what it does, but it’s far too extended to consider an entry at this point.

That’s one awesome looking evening star on the TSLA chart now.

[BlueWolf]

I just can't buy TSLA. Lots of buyers are going to get burned on this. I sold when it hit 200 a few years ago.

---------------billy

Well, I definitely wouldn’t enter it now, but last week it was obviously a buy. I know that’s one giant spinning top on the daily now, but don’t be surprised if it starts consolidating sideways. I’ll continue to keep an eye on it to see what it does, but it’s far too extended to consider an entry at this point.

[billyjoe]

I just can't buy TSLA. Lots of buyers are going to get burned on this. I sold when it hit 200 a few years ago.

---------------billy

[BlueWolf]

SPCE is interesting. Not at all sure how to value something like that.

That’s the problem. I don’t know how to value it either. I’m doing some research on it, and I’m finding that there is a lot of interest in the company right now. What’s fascinating is that they raised $80M in (returnable) deposits before they closed reservations in 2014! People are chomping at the bit for this product. I see that some investors are calling this a “space infrastructure” stock, which is an intriguing way to look at it. I see other people saying this is one of the early stocks in the new “space economy,” and that’s likely to be a very big economy indeed. It certainly has caught my interest, but if I bought this I would have to say it was a purely speculative play, and I think I might have to hang on to it for years before it busted out (if it ever does). In any event, I’m gonna keep it on my watch list while I try to do a deeper dive.

[Louetta]

SPCE is interesting. Not at all sure how to value something like that.

[BlueWolf]

I did a small reallocation today and shuffled my watch list again. I sold a half position in BIDU and used the money to open up a half position in RDFN, which I recently added to my watchlist. I looked hard at several other stocks including ADBE, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EXPI, MDLA, PING, but for one reason or another, I eliminated them and settled on RDFN. There are still a lot of stocks on my watch list that I would love to own, but the current chart patterns just don’t look like they will provide a good entry. I sold BIDU because it looks to me like growth is slowing, but I kept a half position because there is still potential there, particularly if the Chinese economy rebounds.

Current LT Positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU(.5), CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, RDFN(.5), ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, EVBG, EXPI, FRPT,FVRR, HCAT,HQY,KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SPCE, SPLK, SWAV, TSLA, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[BlueWolf]

MDLA is kind of interesting. Though they just IPOed the company is almost 20 years old and has kind of an impressive customer list including airlines and hotel chains.

FRPT is also interesting. People always spend money on their pets. Had quite a run-up but they are increasing revenues at a 30% annual rate and are coming close to making money. Their ads promise dogs and cats veggies, greens and fruits with no preservatives or artificial ingredients.

MDLA is indeed an interesting story. In the last two years, they have grown revenue by almost 45% with their cloud platform, but what caught my eye is the product itself. I’m not aware of any data mining or analytic product doing what their Athena platform does: aggregating raw data from numerous sources and performing AI-based analytics in order to help companies improve the customer experience. I think they’re really on to something, and I can easily see their growth accelerating because they initially had a narrow focus on the hospitality industry and are now targeting a much broader base of industries that includes media, insurance, banking, retail, and technology. Basically any industry that has a customer facing segment can benefit by using the Athena product. Crap, I sound like a salesman for their company, but I am a little excited about it. Since this is a very recent IPO, and since public financial records have only been available for FY 2018 and forward, I consider this a very high risk investment, but I think MDLA could be a company that has tapped into a motherlode.

I think FRPT is a much lower risk investment. I wish I had picked up some in 2019. They have been on a phenomenal growth trend over the last five years, increasing revenue from $87 million in FY 2014 to $193M in 2018, a 122% increase. They’re not making money yet, which is a little worrisome, but they are still in the early stages of growing their business and cash burn dropped significantly in FY 2015 and has stayed low since. Again, as a dog lover myself, this company has a product that I love. What’s exciting is the fact that they have only penetrated 3% of pet homes, i.e. their upside potential is enormous, especially since they have branched out from just selling out of store refrigerators and now offer home delivery through services such as Prime Now. If you want to see something amazing, bring up their monthly chart and check out the price action since 2016. Ah, to think that you could have bought this $65 stock for under $6 in 2016. Even at $65, I think there is still a lot of growth potential here. I’ve been watching it for a pullback, which hasn’t happened yet, but it is currently basing at a high now which portends more upside in the near future.

[Louetta]

MDLA is kind of interesting. Though they just IPOed the company is almost 20 years old and has kind of an impressive customer list including airlines and hotel chains.

FRPT is also interesting. People always spend money on their pets. Had quite a run-up but they are increasing revenues at a 30% annual rate and are coming close to making money. Their ads promise dogs and cats veggies, greens and fruits with no preservatives or artificial ingredients.

[BlueWolf]

I haven’t made any changes to my open positions, and I doubt I will add to my holdings any time soon. I am, however, thinking about re-allocating some funds, i.e. closing or reducing some positions and putting the money into different stocks. As a result, I did some scans and updated my watch list quite a bit. I have dropped a few stocks and added several new ones including a few recent IPOs. Some of these are pretty high risk investments, but I am not averse to holding a few more high risk positions that have home run potential. Feel free to ask me why I am interested in any of these new watch list stocks.

Current LT Positions (Unchanged):
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD(.5), AMZN, APPN, AYX(2), BIDU, CGNX(.5), DDOG,DOCU(.5), EDIT, EEFT(.5), EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB(.5), FICO(.5), FSLY, GH, HUBS(.5), INSP, ISRG, LVGO(.5), LYV, MA(.5), MDB(2), MELI(2), MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI(.5), PANW, ROKU, SFIX(.5), SHOP, SMAR, TDOC(2), TEAM(2), TREX(2), TTD(2), TTWO, TWLO, VEEV(2), WIX(.5), ZEN(2), ZM(2), ZS(.5)

Current LT Watchlist:
ADBE, AMT, APPF, ATVI, BRK/B, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, EQIX, FRPT,FVRR, HCAT, HQY, KNSL, LITE, MASI, MDLA, MNST, MSFT, NEE, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, RVLV, SNPS, SPLK, SWAV, WORK

Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
Bold = New Stock or Altered Position
(.5)= 1/2 Position
(2) = Double Position

[billyjoe]

My current list of Stocks for the Long Term also is a list of those I've profited the most from. Some don't stand out as great stocks. Maybe it was dumb luck that I bought them at the right time and held. Some I've owned for over 10 years, most are dividend payers and those reinvested dividends eventually take on a life of their own. In alphabetical order: ABR, AMZN, AWF, CE, CIVB, DSL, HQL, LADR, MA, OHI, PMT, UNH

----------------------billy