Stocks for the Long Term

[Louetta]

Thanks for the update.

[BlueWolf]

I jumped in and purchased ETSY today. Was considering this or doubling down my position in UAA after their lawsuit which news announced today that it should not impact the company.

Great minds think alike, sixfeetfour. 😉 I openned a full position in ETSY today myself. I was reviewing their financials and their third quarter numbers don’t look so bad to me even though the street hated them. I guess when you are a growth stock, expectations are everything so you can’t afford to miss even by a fraction. Nevertheless, I’m looking at this pullback as an opportunity to get a good entry in a high growth stock. The valuation right now looks more like a value stock than a growth stock, so I thought I’d take a shot.

I also made a couple of changes to my LT watchlist. I dropped WORK because I think they do indeed have a serious competition problem with Microsoft Teams. Microsoft recently released some numbers for Teams, and they are growing by leaps and bounds. I can’t help but believe that some of this growth is going to come at the expense of Slack, WORK’s primary product. Even if it doesn’t happen immediately, I’m thinking it will eventually show up in WORK’s numbers. Now is just not the right time to enter WORK. I was tempted to enter MSFT, but I am a little cautious about entering here. I definitely would like to add MSFT to my portfolio.

I also added a recent IPO stock, LVGO, to my watchlist. The growth story there is phenomenal. If it bases a little more at these levels, I may jump in.

Here are my updated positions and watchlist:

Current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CGNX, DDOG, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, ETSY, FB, FICO, GH, INSP, ISRG, LYV, MA, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Current LT Candidates:
ADSK, AMT, APPF, BRK/B, CRM, CRSP, ETSY, GOOG, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LOB, LOPE, LVGO, MASI, MSFT, NEE, NOW, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, SNPS, SPLK, WD, WDAY

1. Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
2. Bold - New Stock

[sixfeetfour]

I really liked RVLV, and still do to some extent even though they’re not on my LT watch list right now. I didn’t like the way it was trending, however, and closed my position. I’m interested on ETSY for the potential. They’re revenue story has been exceptional. They got punished in August and then again at the end of November. The reasons for the August hit were a little subtle, but the October hit was because of a drop in quarterly revenue. Still, for the full year, revenue is expected to grow 30+% YoY, and their forward guidance is still strong. I agree that the trend doesn’t look that great here for an entry, but I do think it is becoming fairly valued, which for a growth stock, is compelling (usually they are somewhat overvalued). I’m lousy at calling bottoms, but I will keep an eye on this one and if it starts trending up, I might jump in.

I jumped in and purchased ETSY today. Was considering this or doubling down my position in UAA after their lawsuit which news announced today that it should not impact the company.

[Louetta]

Louetta, Despite the "Asia" in the FAX symbol, 6 of its top 7 holdings are in Australian bonds.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-pacific-etf-offers-high-100000957.html

-----------------billy

Yeh, that's cool, Billy. Just looking for some diversification. Actually Squawk Box Asia covers Australia in some detail because depending on the time of year and where in Australia you are the Australia markets open shortly ahead of the Chinese markets, Viet Nam and Whatnot.

[billyjoe]

FAX is very interesting, Billy. I certainly don't have anything like it. Reasonable entry point. Have to start paying more attention to Asian Squawk Box.

Louetta, Despite the "Asia" in the FAX symbol, 6 of its top 7 holdings are in Australian bonds.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-pacific-etf-offers-high-100000957.html

-----------------billy

[Louetta]

I closed my RVLV position a while back. I came to the conclusion it was too early for that one. Since I closed it, it has dropped an additional $6+ or about 28%. I like what the company is doing and still see a lot of potential there, but IPOs are notoriously difficult to time as far as entries go. Maybe I should add it back to my LT watch list.

RVLV stock has definitely done poorly. In addition to the general running from IPOs, in RVLV's first 10Q after the IPO (quarter ended June 30, filed 8/12/19 I think) they took a humoungous charge for shares owed to early investors which were promised to be delivered when RVLV IPOed (it's in the S-1, which I did not read). That, I think, truly is a one-timer. Other than that they are doing OK, methinks. Anyway, I have a LEAP of Jan. 2022. We'll see.

[BlueWolf]

Ooooo! Cramer just said buy RVLV now!

I closed my RVLV position a while back. I came to the conclusion it was too early for that one. Since I closed it, it has dropped an additional $6+ or about 28%. I like what the company is doing and still see a lot of potential there, but IPOs are notoriously difficult to time as far as entries go. Maybe I should add it back to my LT watch list.

[Louetta]

FAX is very interesting, Billy. I certainly don't have anything like it. Reasonable entry point. Have to start paying more attention to Asian Squawk Box.

[billyjoe]

My long term list: CE, MA, ABR, AMZN, PMT, ECL, FAX, CLF. Some are for long term dividend accumulation rather than price appreciation as divs. are all being reinvested.

----------------Billy

[Louetta]

Ooooo! Cramer just said buy RVLV now!

[Louetta]

Thank you for the update. Good day for your stuff. DDOG doing well. Even RVLV is up today though I can't see any news.

[BlueWolf]

I opened a position in DDOG today. This is a recent IPO, so it’s speculative, but I like the product and their growth story. They doubled revenue from 2017 to 2018, and they’re on track to increase revenue by another 50% this year. The primary risk here is that they’re in a very competitive space. I thought I’d take a shot, although my track record for recent IPOs hasn’t been too good. ☹️

Here are my current holdings plus my long term watchlist.

Current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CGNX, DDOG, DOCU,EDIT,EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, FB, FICO, GH, INSP, ISRG,LYV, MA, MDB,MELI,MTCH,NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Current LT Candidates:
ADSK, AMT, APPF, BRK/B, CRM, CRSP, ETSY, GOOG, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LOB, LOPE, MASI, MSFT, NEE, NOW, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, SNPS, SPLK, WD, WDAY, WORK

1. Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
2. Bold - New Stock

[BlueWolf]

I've been staring at ETSY data for the last 1/2 hour and really can't convince myself it's a buy. It's a loverly idea but the downward trend in the price has been so severe and I can't quite see a reason for a turnaround. Presumably they'd have to beat their guidance which is 33% or so for revenue. That's a healthy increase as it is. Methinks there's better candidates but I do keep seeing people say that after the sell-off this is a good entry point. I thought the same thing with RVLV (and CRON).

I really liked RVLV, and still do to some extent even though they’re not on my LT watch list right now. I didn’t like the way it was trending, however, and closed my position. I’m interested on ETSY for the potential. They’re revenue story has been exceptional. They got punished in August and then again at the end of November. The reasons for the August hit were a little subtle, but the October hit was because of a drop in quarterly revenue. Still, for the full year, revenue is expected to grow 30+% YoY, and their forward guidance is still strong. I agree that the trend doesn’t look that great here for an entry, but I do think it is becoming fairly valued, which for a growth stock, is compelling (usually they are somewhat overvalued). I’m lousy at calling bottoms, but I will keep an eye on this one and if it starts trending up, I might jump in.

[Louetta]

I've been staring at ETSY data for the last 1/2 hour and really can't convince myself it's a buy. It's a loverly idea but the downward trend in the price has been so severe and I can't quite see a reason for a turnaround. Presumably they'd have to beat their guidance which is 33% or so for revenue. That's a healthy increase as it is. Methinks there's better candidates but I do keep seeing people say that after the sell-off this is a good entry point. I thought the same thing with RVLV (and CRON).

[BlueWolf]

Update: I haven’t added or closed any new positions, but my watch list has changed a little so I thought I’d share.

Current LT positions¹:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CGNX, DOCU, EDIT, EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, FB, FICO, GH, INSP, ISRG, LYV, MA, MDB, MELI, MTCH, NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Current LT Candidates^2,3: (A few of these have run away from me, i.e. it’s now tough to get a good entry)^:
ADSK, AMT, APPF, BRK/B, CME, CRM, CRSP, DDOG, ETSY, GOOG, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LOB, LOPE, MASI, MSFT, NEE, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, SNPS, SPLK, STNE, WD, WDAY, WORK

1. Bold = Write Up Available
2. Italics - New Stock
3. Strikethrough = Dropped From List

BTW, if any of you have an opinion on any of the stocks in my watchlist, I’d love to hear it,