I can be Huge too

[Deaddog]

He shares his system, clearly defined, for a very focused goal and thoroughly enjoys the track record of his results.
None of this reflects factors such as diversification, management of individual portfolio or overall accounts, etc, etc.

tiedyed1

That was my point to Mr Market. A whole bunch of winner in a row is meaningless if you don’t have things like position size or return on capital factored in.

I really enjoy Mr. Market, his picks, especially the fact that he shares his methodology so freely, and his outstanding write-ups. However I also like to challenge conventional wisdom and love a good debate. The difference of opinion is what makes a market.

To my way of thinking it’s all about making money. After all it takes cold hard cash to buy fine meats and cheese. I can’t control the market; I only have control over how I react to what the market does.

I’m not knocking Mr. Market or his method. I love his picks. I’m just offering the opinion that there is a potential to make more money with a little risk control. The Big Fellow and I have had this discussion and have agreed that our particular strategies suit our particular needs and that each of us should do what works for us.

One thing I respect about Mr. Market is that he has a plan and sticks to it. I encourage all investors/traders to do the same thing. Once you have opened a position, know where you will exit. It takes the emotion and stress out of managing your portfolio.

[antioch6]

We might get an idea how a Mr. Market portfolio can be managed from this thread. My strategy is similar to his, only I don't have an exact upside target to sell. I view this as a cash producing system that works while the market goes higher or sideways. It's just a piece of the whole in my investment strategy. Since the market is probably high as we both agree, I'm limiting my positions to 15%. If we were near the end of a long bear market and valuations were low, I might up my positions to as high as 50% with this strategy. In that way I am trying to time the market, but this is still an always invested strategy with no hard stop losses.

[Deaddog]

. My strategy is similar to his, only I don't have an exact upside target to sell.

What will trigger a sale? Letting your winners run is a great idea but you should have a plan to exit.

I view this as a cash producing system that works while the market goes higher or sideways.

Are you looking at dividends to produce cash or capital gains?

but this is still an always invested strategy with no hard stop losses.

I sense a reluctance to sell a stock once you have taken a position. You are not alone with that feeling; it’s the hardest part of investing. It seems you always sell at the wrong time. Early in my investing career I was sure that “They” were waiting for me to make a decision. If I held the stock “They would let it go down. But as soon as I sold, “They” would start buying and take the stock to new heights.

Keep in mind that the decision to hold a stock is the same as the decision to buy a stock. If you wouldn’t buy a stock today, why would you hold on to it?

[antioch6]

Stock Picks so far this year with results.


The best stock has been my RAD pick that came from introducing my brother to stocks. He works in the pharmacy/assisted living industry and his insight helped us identify RAD as turnaround, and now was the time to buy. LMT and KRE came from my quantitative screen. They have performed okay, about the same as the market. INTX came from screening for dividend stocks that aren't overvalued by simple metrics.

I haven't invested more because of fear the market could go down. DAL was also on my high priority buy list, but I didn't have enough conviction in the value and especially the market to make a purchase. My best ideas for stocks have always come from finding a new product (Apple ipod) or a service (Chipotle, Netflix) that I love. The best time to buy the stock has been immediately after I encounter the company, and a good time to sell has been after a year at least. Great ideas can also come from new or changing fundamentals, communicated to me by insider friends. The best time to put money into these ideas is also immediately. My quantitative screen will produce superior outperforming stock picks, but they will be closer in correlation with the S&P 500.

I conclude that 2 more position sizing rules should be added to my stock rules:

1. Stocks from my quantitative screen should each be 1-3% of my stock money
2. Stocks from companies I understand and like should be 3-9% of my stock money

After actively watching it for the past 4 years, I have no idea where the stok market is going. Ben Graham gives good advice: we should always have at least 25% in stocks, and at least 25% in bonds.

[billyjoe]

antioch, Here are some selling signals that can be used: 1. stock price drops below 40dma. 2. trend line from higher lows breaks below previous low. 3. a trusted source says market signal goes to a "sell" 4. stock has reached your pre-determined sell number 5. 50% of your profit on an individual stock is gone. 6. you need $$ to buy the next AAPL so you are forced to sell your Enron.

----------------------billy

[antioch6]

billy I appreciate the sell signals. I haven't put mine into stone. At the moment I'm slowly bringing my account up to 25% in stocks. For this MrMarket type stock picking, I want to keep my positions until they get too pricey in valuation, or until I find something better to replace.

I simplified my screen for a few reasons: It was taking too long to get a large sample by hand. I'm not sure which one of the stocks from my list will end up being the winners and best picks. Simple is always better.

The criterias that most lowered the amount of stocks spit out were Sales Growth past 5 years, and Earnings Growth past 5 years. I set these at a minimum of 5%, lowering the amount of candidates by 70%. Here is my dump for today

AAP,ACET,AFSI,AGCO,AEL,APOL,AVGO,BOFI,BRCD,CI,COO, CMI,CLFD,CHDN,CORE,CPLE,CRR,DSW,DLTR,FELE,FPP,GPX, GTE,HAIN,HELE,HSIC,HUM,INVN,JJSF,NOV,NTL,PNG,PRAA, ROST,SGNT,SJM,SNDK,SNAK,SWHC,THI,UNFI,UNP,UTHR,VFC ,WGO,WAB,WILK,WX

I'll choose one or a few soon to buy, taking a 1-3% position size in each.

[billyjoe]

antioch, I ran your dump through numerous screens, relative timing, industry group strength,projected sales and earnings, 10 day average, 65 day average, eps growth trend, and came up with a top 10 although the top 5 stand out above the rest. WGO, SNDK, PRAA, UTHR, DLTR, CI, GTE, WX, AVGO, COO..................good luck

-------------------billy

[antioch6]

I narrowed mine down to a Top 9. CHDN, THI, SJM, BRCD, AFSI, SWHC, AGCO, UNP, PNG. I don't know which will be the best pick, or if you're screened results will be better picks. I need to choose 3 and put 1% into each. Will think about it down at the casino and in the city tonight.

[Duniyo]

I narrowed mine down to a Top 9. CHDN, THI, SJM, BRCD, AFSI, SWHC, AGCO, UNP, PNG. I don't know which will be the best pick, or if you're screened results will be better picks. I need to choose 3 and put 1% into each. Will think about it down at the casino and in the city tonight.

SJM had amazing 5 year run. Surprisingly, SJM chart is similar to most of picks if you hold the chart upside-down. WHO said duniyo can't huge?

[antioch6]

I'm picking THI, SWHC, and UNP. Tomorrow I'll buy all three of them at the open. Took a minute to finally pick three. Anxious to find out how they will perform vs the market over the next 12 months.

[Duniyo]

antioch6 UNP looks very good. My only concern is war on coal, do you know what percentage of UNP income comes from coal transportation?

I'm picking THI, SWHC, and UNP. Tomorrow I'll buy all three of them at the open. Took a minute to finally pick three. Anxious to find out how they will perform vs the market over the next 12 months.

[antioch6]

antioch6 UNP looks very good. My only concern is war on coal, do you know what percentage of UNP income comes from coal transportation?

From their SEC filing: Freight Revenue - 20% Coal, 20% Intermodal, 18% Industrial Products, 17% Agricultural, 16% Chemicals, 9% Automotive.

[Duniyo]

Just brought UNP, it looks very solid stock. 20% Coal exposure isn't as bad as I expected. I brought 50% now and wait until December for the other 50%. I am buying it for a long term 1-3 year period.

[antioch6]

I got in a bit late today to buy these 3 companies, but anyways.

THI 60.44
SWHC 11.15
UNP 153.8

One percent allocation to each. This brings me just over 10% invested in stocks. My goal is work my way up to 25% invested over the next 12 months. Reminder to anyone following the picks in this thread, stocks are mechanically screened with the purpose of outperforming the market as a whole. Each pick shouldn't outperform, but as a group they should. I plan to keep investing (while staying alive financially) for at least the next 33 years.

[antioch6]

Here is my dump for this weekend.

GOOG BOFI TESO UTHR CMCO SYMC GSH AVGO ITW ECOL MMM COV BOLT VFC CUZ HOT WIT SLB SNDK CLC SCHW OII CRR A ZMH SNHY AFOP PTEN GIL BID MOV NBL ASML XEC SYNT PCP JOBS GPRC INVN ICON GTE WAB NATH CTSH AGX CLFD HF BH KEX WX FSS MTD KLAC.

There were also plenty of regional banks, insurance and aerospace companies, but most are in previous dumps. I already own KRE and LMT to cover those areas.