Technical Trades Anyone

[BlueWolf]

I’m out of both NVR and COHR, but they showed some strength today at the end, so these plays might be OK. I’ve been through choppy markets before, though, so I know the importance of trading in a disciplined manner. No regrets. Will I re-enter? Only if the setups look spectacular. I don’t like the way this market is chopping, so I may sit on my hands for a while. The markets had a spectacular run in 2017, so it’s only natural if they decide to retrace or idle for a while. The thing that is a little tempting right now is that all of the indexes have retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and then bounced which is bullish. If we are in a bullish retrace then the markets will likely make new highs, and this means there will be a lot of bullish equity plays. If that 38.2% retrace breaks down, we could be entering a bear market, and it will be time to start looking for short plays.

[tiedyed1]

BlueWolf; any additional analysis is always helpful; and your technical view is truly appreciated. There is so much market volatility based on knee jerk reactions and emotions moving sentiment more than ever; and in this new world where a Tweet can shift markets while ignoring fundamentals I need as much and as many viewpoints as I can when attempting to make a confident decision these days.

Thank you for taking the time on this to help. I truly appreciate it!

[BlueWolf]

Your welcome, tiedyed1. I just saw that the reason they got slammed today was because of earnings. Their guidance for next quarter was less than hoped for, and so there was a sell off after a lot of buying leading up to the call. Given that, it’s hard to believe it won’t go lower still, but since they have performed so well, earnings-wise, there probably will be a lot of buying at some point. The question is just when.

[riverbabe]

Blue Wolf, I respect your discipline and technical view. May ask your technical opinion of LRCX at 192 at this time?

I bot a little yesterday at 195 based on a Zacks recommendation. After watching the herd drive it up, I put in what I thought was a nice low-ball bid. Oh well.

[tiedyed1]

I bot a little yesterday at 195 based on a Zacks recommendation. After watching the herd drive it up, I put in what I thought was a nice low-ball bid. Oh well.

I have a large position in LRCX (both shares and Jan 2019 call options) as I believe the guidance is conservative and factors supporting the need for LRCX include 5G technology around the corner and how fast the memory and chip market in general makes LRCX undervalued and a long term continued growth play.

I may be wrong on this one in the immediate short term, but long and strong in my portfolio.

[BlueWolf]

For you LRCX folks, the news is good today so far. We need to wait and see what the bar looks like at the end of the day, but instead of continuing its drop, it bounced a little. This has been an area of support twice in the past, so we’ll have to wait and see. If it breaks down below 189, however, I don’t see anything holding it up and keeping it from dropping to the 150-170 range.

[BlueWolf]

Boy, GTLS sure looks like it’s going higher. There’s a little cup and handle on the daily. It’s a little overbought, though, so I’m being Uber cautious in this whippy market and probably won’t look for an entry. ULTA is also interesting, but should have been bought at the bottom of the range it’s currently bound by. I hate this chop. I’m still hanging on precariously to several other positions including TTD and IPCT. TTD hit a 10% target so I am trail stopping. I’m only sitting on a half position so I am still hoping for $56. ICPT, which I only entered with 1/2 position, is just hanging on, but I am still tempted to bring it up to full position because I still like the chart. I think I may have to loosen the stop to stay in it, though. Market Makers do run stops in my opinion. I got to get back on a programmed trading platform like TradeStation so I can hide my stops.

[BlueWolf]

Even though I’m out, NVR still looks like it might run to the 3300-3500 range. COHR, on the other hand, looks awful, and I’m really glad I stopped out on that one. Man, you HAVE to stay disciplined on stops or the market will eat you alive. That’s why I never kick myself for stopping out on a trade that later becomes a good one. I DO kick myself when I don’t take a stop and I end up married to a stock, tying up my money in a loser, waiting for the day it comes back (If it ever does). If you have one trade that makes you 15%, you can afford to stop out on three trades that lose you 5% and still break even. It’s not necessarily about win percentage, it’s all about risk/reward, but this kind of trading doesn’t work if you don’t get good entries and you don’t take the stops.

[Louetta]

Nice to have this good new thread.

[riverbabe]

Even though I’m out, NVR still looks like it might run to the 3300-3500 range. COHR, on the other hand, looks awful, and I’m really glad I stopped out on that one. Man, you HAVE to stay disciplined on stops or the market will eat you alive. That’s why I never kick myself for stopping out on a trade that later becomes a good one. I DO kick myself when I don’t take a stop and I end up married to a stock, tying up my money in a loser, waiting for the day it comes back (If it ever does). If you have one trade that makes you 15%, you can afford to stop out on three trades that lose you 5% and still break even. It’s not necessarily about win percentage, it’s all about risk/reward, but this kind of trading doesn’t work if you don’t get good entries and you don’t take the stops.

I learned a long time ago to NEVER use stops! Have seen too many of them turn into market sells when caught in Niagara Falls, especially in Biotech plays. So I just keep a very alert eye on the charts and the news. If they start to melt, I'm gone before the deluge.

[BlueWolf]

I agree. Because Market Makers can see stops, I believe they do run the price up/down to trigger them. When I say stop, I simply mean selling (buying) when the stock reaches a certain level. Since I am getting back into trading more actively, I am in the process of switching to TradeStation which allows programmatic stops that cannot be seen by the MMS. They also have a nice feature that allows you to buy large blocks of stock without having to put a single large order into the level II chain. For example, it can pump 100 share orders into level II one at a time until a 1000 share buy is filled. Being able to hide your intentions is always valuable for preventing the MMs from playing games.

[riverbabe]

Very interesting tool! In the past I have used Ninja for Level II and it was great. But then, with more time on hand, switched to Scottrade Elite and a higher level of Stockcharts. Trouble is Scottrade was just bought by TD Ameritrade and their Trade Architect Platform I find too confining. Haven't done Think or Swim tutorial yet (lazy me). Getting tougher to play against the algo bots anyway. Beginning to be much more conservative and do fewer short term trades. Thank you for your advice!

[BlueWolf]

Think or Swim is a great platform, so do take the time to learn it. It’s especially good for scanning. I think they still have sessions in the morning where you can sit in and learn about the tool in one of their live chat rooms. They’ll teach a lot about option plays too and how to use the Think or Swim platform to do options analysis.

[BlueWolf]

I stopped out of ICPT today, even with some slack in the stop. Every time the market tries to stage a rally, it rolls back. In the futures, a head and shoulders is forming on the daily NASDAQ e-minis, and while there isn’t a H&S on the S&P or DOW e-minis, they are both in confirmed down trends at this point. Currently I’m still in only one trade (TTD), which I am trail stopping, and I doubt I’ll add any more long positions until I see some recovery in the markets. Actually, I’m gonna start scanning for short plays at this point, to see if I see anything that is screaming sell me. Problem is that I don’t have all my scans back up at this point. I have to rebuild a lot of them. This is a tough market to play, and, right now, sitting it out is not a bad strategy. The killer entries just aren’t there.

[BlueWolf]

I’m still sitting on the sidelines, but if anyone wants a few short ideas, take a look at AMAT, CRSP, TSLA, and WY. It’s gonna take me a while to get my scans all up, but I turned these up just doing some primitive scans. Don’t like the market for longs here.

LRCX still looks bearish to me despite the bounce on Friday. Bearish bar yesterday with a topping tail. Even the Friday bar had a topping tail. It’s still in a regression channel that currently has an upward bound in the 200 to 205 range. So it could bounce that high and then reverse. If it does, it’s a nice short entry. If it breaks out of the regression channel to the upside it could reverse trend, but I think that’s unlikely. The key support level right now is 190. You don’t want to see it break down below that by much, because there won’t be much holding it up after that. I don’t think you longs are in trouble long-term (yet), but you may have to weather a storm for now. Good luck all.