Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

No new picks

I am rather busy, so I'll pick no new stocks, just give a short report.

It was a moderately lousy week, but my marketocracy fund, QHF, managed to pass QQQQ, and is the best performer for two weeks in a row! Thta is the way I like it! The numbers:

IWM: 27.45 (-0.9%)
SPY: 26.27 (-0.9%)
QHF: 24.83 (-0.5%)
QQQQ: 24.81 (-1.3%)
QHF-: 23.69 (-2.6%)

QHF- is the new baseline port, holding my weekly top 3 $$$Mr.Market$$$ picks for 6 weeks. We expect it to underperform relative to QHF (to show our stock picking and holding strategy works), and to outperform relative to the market.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: RKT, UCTT, CHAP

Things look good this week. The markets were up and so was the fund. QHF is actually catching up! The rankings:

IWM: 27.70 (+3.7%)
SPY: 26.52 (+3.5%)
QQQ: 25.14 (+3.0%)
QHF: 24.95 (+5.0%)
QHF-: 24.31 (+3.9%)

QHF- is the new baseline port, holding my weekly top 3 $$$Mr.Market$$$ picks for 6 weeks. We expect it to underperform relative to QHF (to show our stock picking and holding strategy works), and to outperform relative to the market.

This week's hall of fame: DRQ +10.3%, PBR +10.3%, and GGB +10.2% (yes, all 3 double digit gains)
Hall of shame: GI +0.6%, RKT (my latest pick) +2.6%, and AEO +3.4% (Yes, all 3 positive)

The new Top 3 Picks are RKT (again), OFI, and CHAP. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, we do. Currently there are 4 stocks due for replacement and the one that has been waiting longest is IBCA. Now we have the same problem as the previous week with our baseline fund QHF-: RKT and CHAP are already in the portolio. We therefore go a bit deeper and find the following 3 candidates for a replacement: GSTL, UCTT, XING. By the way, GSTL has an amazing R-squared of .96. That, and its earnings, make it the replacement for IBCA.

NTRI was sold for 47.34, a silly 1.5% gain in almost a year. Had I been paying attention, I would have sold three monts after its last highest weekly close (around 3 months after 5/19 of 2006), for over $64. Well, I didn't pay attention. RKT was bought for 33.89.

The baseline port loses 3 ancient stocks and gets our new Top 3 Picks, without stocks already owned in the port, so the 3 replacements will be: GSTL, PCU and GIGM.

Closed trades:
Winners: 33, avg +80.0%
Losers: 14, avg -24.5%
Total: 47, avg +48.9%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

The markets go up, the markets go down, and so does my fund. We are not really catching up in a hurry:

IWM: 26.71 (-1.1%)
SPY: 25.62 (-1.6%)
QQQ: 24.41 (-0.3%)
QHF: 23.77 (-1.2%)
QHF-: 23.39 (-0.7%)

QHF- is the new baseline port, holding my weekly top 3 $$$Mr.Market$$$ picks for 6 weeks. We expect it to underperform relative to QHF (to show our stock picking and holding strategy works), and to outperform relative to the market.

This week's hall of fame: GRMN +2.4%, WCG +2.3%, and CHAP (my current POTW pick) +2.2%
Hall of shame: GEO (my latest pick) -7.0%, TS -6.4%, and PBR -4.5%

The new Top 3 Picks are AMIE, RKT, and (again) UCTT. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, we do. Currently there are (again) 5 stocks due for replacement (I sold one of last week's five, but a new one came due this week) and the one that has been waiting longest is NTRI. It will be replaced by RKT.

RAIL was sold for 48.18, a lousy -31% loss in almost 11 months. GEO was bought for 47.44.

The baseline port loses 3 ancient stocks and gets our new Top 3 Picks, that is, after AMIE come 4 stocks already in the port, so we grab nr.6, BW, and nr.7, PD, to go with AMIE. Edit: I already owned PD, too, so I had to go another rung lower: CLMT.

Closed trades:
Winners: 32, avg +82.4%
Losers: 14, avg -24.5%
Total: 46, avg +49.9%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: GEO, PNPFF and UCTT

A nice bounce this week, and my Marketocracy fund QHF bounces the best:

IWM: 27.01 (+1.9%)
SPY: 26.04 (+1.5%)
QQQ: 24.49 (+1.2%)
QHF: 24.05 (+2.6%)
QHF-: 23.57 (+1.2%)

QHF- is the new baseline port, holding my weekly top 3 $$$Mr.Market$$$ picks for 6 weeks. We expect it to underperform relative to QHF (to show our stock picking and holding strategy works), and to outperform relative to the market.

Shiners in our portfolio were NTRI +9.1%, IBCA +7.1%, and CHAP +6.5%
Shamers were: TS -1.0%, WCG -0.3%, and GI +0.1%(!)

The new Top 3 Picks are GEO, PNPFF, and UCTT. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, we do. Currently 5 stocks are due for replacement and the one that has been waiting longest is RAIL. It will get replaced by GEO.

GIL was sold for 50.63, a measly 3.2% gain in just over a year. WCG was bought for 83.83

The baseline port loses 3 ancient stocks and gets our new Top 3 Picks, that is: GEO was already present and PNPFF isn't on the Marketocracy buy list. We'll go a bit further down the list and buy UCTT, SPAR and TATTF.

Closed trades:
Winners: 32, avg +82.4%
Losers: 13, avg -24.0%
Total: 45, avg +51.7%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

The new Top 3 Picks: WCG, GEO, and RKT

What a time to return! The numbers speak for themselves:

IWM: 26.51 (-6.3%)
SPY: 25.65 (-4.6%)
QQQ: 24.21 (-6.1%)
QHF: 23.45 (-5.6%)
QHF-: 23.30 (-6.2%)

Overall, the picture is pretty bad, and then QHF wasn't even the worst performer in the list. QHF- is the new baseline port, holding my weekly top 3 $$$Mr.Market$$$ picks for 6 weeks. We expect it to underperform relative to QHF (to show our stock picking and holding strategy works), and to outperform relative to the market.

The sunshine in our portfolio came from DECK +5.1%, TSO +1.1%, and GI -0.7%(!)
Shamers were: GGB -12.1%, IBCA -11.2%, and PCU -9.9%

The new Top 3 Picks: WCG, GEO, and RKT. Do we need a new stock for QHF? Yes, we do. Currently 8 stocks are due for replacement and the one that has been waiting longest is GIL. It will get replaced by WCG.

CHAP was bought for 52.11 (and lost 7% in its first week.)

The baseline port loses 3 ancient stocks and gets our new Top 3 Picks.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

After an absence of some 6 months, I return to this fund. It gained +6.7% in that period, not bad, but it seriously trailed the market: SPY +13.4%, QQQQ +22.5%, and IWM (Russell 2000) +17.7%! The fund is now last. Let's do something about it!

IWM: 28.29
SPY: 26.88
QQQQ: 25.79
QHF: 24.85
(QSHF: 24.85)

QSHF is new in this column. It consists of the top 3 picks (not already held) from my $$$Mr. Market$$$ approximation, picked every week, held for 6 weeks. That should give us a baseline for my strategy. I start the fund at the same price as my "real" fund.

What I am going to do is weed out the underperformers one by one, starting ny the oldest in my portfolio. But the first one to go is a relatively recent stock, FLAG, as it got bought out when I didn't notice. Flag got sold for a 1% gain in 1 month.

The Top 3 this week is CHAP, CPA and XING. My pick for my Marketocracy fund is CHAP (which will also be my POTW pick as long as it stays in this portfolio), and the Top 3 is going to replace the oldest 3 stocks in my baseline fund.

Winners: 31, avg +85.0%
Losers: 13, avg -24.0%
Total: 44, avg +52.8%

Marketocracy gives the annualized return as 19.7%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A bit late, but here is the weekly update (numbers based on last weeks close): My fund gained +0.4%, SPY +0.2%, QQQQ lost -0.4%, and IWM -0.1%. The fund is keeping its own:

IWM: 24.03
SPY: 23.71
QHF: 23.31
QQQQ: 21.06

Again just wonderful!

The Top 3 were GIL +10.3%, CIB 4.4%, and DBRN +3.6%
The Bottom 3: GRMN -6.3%, PCU -5.1%, and TSO -3.2%

IBCA was bought for 45.38. That is +10% down the drain, as the price at the open on 6/5 was under 41. Good pick! 10 out of the 15 stocks are marked stalling now. I replaced CIB, the stalling stock with the biggest draw down, with DRQ. CIB went for 27.32, or -19.1%. DRQ was bought for 84.25. The closed trades look like this:

Winners: 29, avg +85.3%
Losers: 12, avg -23.4%
Total: 41, avg +53.5%

Marketocracy gives the annualized return as 20.6%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Catching up! It is almost two months since the last report, so I will give just the standings (percentage change since last message):

IWM: 24.05 (-4.8%)
SPY: 23.67 (-0.8%)
QHF: 23.22 (-1.2%)
QQQQ: 21.15 (-6.4%)

That is just wonderful! My fund, currently nr. 3, gains on both the leader and last position. That is the way to come out on top.

On the buy and sell side, something strange came up. It seems that I forgot to buy IBCA. I will do that this Monday, because it is still (or again) the top buy. Because I will buy only one stock a week, that is were I stop, too. But the majority of my stocks is marked stalling, so the coming weeks will see quite a few changes. Stay tuned!

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Karel,
DBRN has been heavily touted by media this past week : FOX , CNBC , IBD.

billyjoe

They can have a good idea too, once in a while ...

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
DBRN has been heavily touted by media this past week : FOX , CNBC , IBD.

billyjoe

[Karel]

My QHF fund scored +0.3% this week. Up is good, but SPY scored +0.5%, QQQQ +0.4% and IWM +0.8%. My fund again loses a bit against the top 2, and number last gains a bit. The current ranking:

IWM: 25.27
SPY 23.86
QHF: 23.51
QQQQ: 22.59

What about the top 3 and bottom 3 this week?

Top 3: DBRN +10.1%, TSO +4.6%, GI 4.1%
Bottom 3: RAIL -12.2%, JLG -8.9%, PCU -1.8%

Two stocks are marked stalling, JLG and GIL. I'll replace one stock per week, and JLG (the oldest one) will be replaced by IBCA.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Now, that was a bit better. My QHF fund scored +0.8%, against SPY +1.0%, QQQQ +0.4% and IWM +1.0%. My fund drops a bit farther behind the top 2. The current ranking:

IWM: 25.07
SPY 23.75
QHF: 23.43
QQQQ: 22.51

What about the top 3 and bottom 3 this week?

Top 3: TS +7.7%, PCU +6.6%, CIB +4.4%
Bottom 3: NTRI -6.6%, RAIL -3.4%, GI -2.5%
Funny: TS, PCU and NTRI changed categories this week.

No changes, and all stocks are well down from their recent highs.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Again, the market was no fun last week. My QHF fund, for the languishing portfolio of the year competition, lost -6.9%, against SPY -1.7%, QQQQ -2.1% and IWM -2.2%. That means my fund loses the second place to SPY. The current ranking:

IWM: 24.82
SPY 23.51
QHF: 23.25
QQQQ: 22.43

Let's look at the top 3 and a bottom 3 this week, let's see just how bad this was:

Top 3: NTRI +7.6%, GIL -1.6%, DECK -2.6% (yes, two negative in the Top 3)
Bottom 3: PCU -17.0%, TS -14.8%, GGB -13.0%

EPEX went for 21.66, a gain of 24.8% or 12.7% annualized. That is under par. PBR entered the fray at 96.57 and suffered a 7% drop in its first week.

Interestingly, my Shotgun Fund is doing better these weeks. The Shotgun Fund just buys the top three not held from the current list, DD be damned, and holds them for exactly 6 weeks.

No changes.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Karel,

(snip)
I went over to the fool's mechanical board and researched some info. (snip)

A great board!

Yes, it is! If you are mechanically inclined! (Mechanical investing is not for everyone.) But would people who would like to discuss Mechanical Investing please discuss it in my Mechanical Fund thread? This thread is about a way to manage a portfolio of $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks.

Thank you!

Karel

Karel,

(snip)
I went over to the fool's mechanical board and researched some info. (snip)

A great board!