It's time to pick up the thread, after three weeks. The market was no fun last week. My QHF fund, for the languishing portfolio of the year competition, lost -4.5%, against SPY -2.4%, QQQQ -4.7% and IWM -5.2%. The current ranking:
IWM: 25.37
QHF: 24.98
SPY 23.91
QQQQ: 22.90
OK, there were a top 3 and a bottom 3 this week, let's see just how bad this was:
Top 3: RAIL +1.3%, GGB +0.8%, PCU -1.7%
Bottom 3: JLG -16.5%, DECK -12,7%, CIB -8.4%
There were two sells: UPL went for 67.60, a again of 219% or 94% annualized. BLUD went 5/8 for 29.86, a gain of 530%, or 63% annualized. I do some skimming off when a position grows too big, and this means that the annualized gain over all trades is more like 80%, in the case of BLUD.
Rail started running at 70.12, PCU at 101.86.
EPEX is marked stalling. It will be replaced by PBR.
Regards,
Karel
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Thanks - I found this link the other day -- from you I think -- and downloaded some of the info - I love math so none of this stuff scares me.Originally posted by Karel
TimLeave a comment:
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Yes, I am aware of those postings. I couldn't play the screen if they weren't. I look at http://www.mechanicalinvestor.net/index.php, but that might be a dangerous place if you don't know what it is about.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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Karel,
Thanks for posting all the info. WOW!
I had some time recently to look over your mechanical fund based on
RS26 1-10 HTD 25.
I went over to the fool's mechanical board and researched some info.
They post weekly the VL results for this screen, as I am sure you are aware.
I am going to watch it some more as it appears to be quite successful.
Thanks again for sharing this with us.
Tim
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NTRI! see that doggie run!Originally posted by Karel
And I even have it in my real money portfolio (same entry)
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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The current list, sorted on date bought (yy-mm-dd):
02-08-12 BLUD
04-04-19 DECK
04-05-04 RUSHB
04-07-06 EPEX
04-07-12 VLO
04-08-02 TSO
06-01-03 JLG
06-01-30 GI
06-02-21 GIL
06-03-06 CIB
06-03-20 TS
06-03-27 GGB
06-04-03 DBRN
06-04-10 NTRI
06-04-24 RAIL
The list for my Mechanical fund is posted in the thread for that fund.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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Your Fund(s)
Karel, do you have a link somewhere to lists of the stocks currently held in your various funds?
Thanks.Leave a comment:
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Well, that was my revised plan, but I forgot to cancel the sell, and the replacement buy for RAIL. We'll keep it like that. RAIL replaces UPL.Originally posted by Karel
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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Two excellent weeks for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund gained 0.6% in a down week and 4.8% last week, leaving SPY, QQQQ and IWM (Russell 2000) in the dust. The fund is still #2, but the gap with #3 (SPY again) has widened spectacularly, and #1 is within striking distance. This fund rocks!
IWM: 26.47 (-0.6%, +2.8%)
QHF: 26.19 (+0.6%, +4.8%)
SPY: 24.26 (-0.6%, +1.9%)
QQQQ: 23.94 (-0.5%, -0.2%)
These shiners and shamers are over two weeks:
Top 3: TS +16.8%, VLO +12.4%, GGB +8.4%
TS and GGB are really doing very, very well!
Bottom 3: GIL -3.5%, BLUD -0.7%, CIB +1.0%
A whole slew of stocks (8 from the 15) closed the week 5% or higher than their previous record weekly close: DECK, VLO, TSO, GI, TS, GGB, DBRN, and NTRI. The last 5 are "new" stocks (bought this year). I must be doing something right. Or this is a roaring bull, of course.
This week UPL is marked "stalling", but it will get some grace. The stock is really moving this last month.
Two weeks ago VNBC went for 29.92, a gain of 257%, or 48% annualized. That is perfect. NTRI entered the fund at 46.71.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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An excellent week for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund gained 1.7%, and beat SPY, QQQQ and IWM (Russell 2000) with a wide margin. The fund is still #2, but the gap with #3 (now QQQQ) has widened, and the gap with #1 is closing. That is the way we like it!
QHF: 24.84 (+1.7%)
SPY: 23.96 (-0.2%)
QQQQ: 24.12 (+0.9%)
IWM: 25.89 (-1.3%)
Top 3: TS +9.4%, GGB +6.0%, BLUD +5.3%
TS was in the Bottom 3 last week
Bottom 3: CIB -4.2%, DECK -1.0%, EPEX -0.7%
Epex was in the Top 3 the previous week.
TS closed the week 5% or higher than its previous record close. Nice to see a new stock moving!
This week only VNBC is marked "stalling" and it will have to go. It will be replaced by NTRI.
Last week WSFS went for 61.90, a gain of 86%, or 20.4% annualized. That is acceptable. DBRN entered the fund at 24.30.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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A nice week for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund gained, beat SPY, but lost to QQQQ and IWM (Russell 2000).
QHF: 24.43 (+0.9%)
SPY: 24.01 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 23.90 (+1.5%)
IWM: 26.22 (+1.4%)
Top 3: UPL +7.4%, TSO +5.2%, EPEX +4.7%
Bottom 3: RUSHB -6.2%, GIL -4.4%, TS -2.1
GIL and RUSHB also were in the bottom 3 the previous week.
No stock closed the week 5% or higher than its previous record close. That is a bit disappointing.
This week WSFS and VNBC are marked "stalling". I don't want to replace more than one stock per week, and this time WSFS will go. It will be replaced by DBRN.
Last week SFY went for 37.75, a gain of almost 90%, or 40.7% annualized. That is better! GGB entered the fund at 22.96.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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A moderately good week for QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks. The fund beats SPY and QQQQ, but not that dratted IWM (Russell 2000). The fund didn't recover yet completely from the drop I reported two weeks ago, but it is close. And the fund stood at over 25 near the end of january, so there is more work to do. SPY was passed this week and the fund now is in second place, compared to the indices. IWM, take care!
QHF: 24.22 (+1.0%)
SPY: 24.08 (-0.3%)
QQQQ: 23.54 (-0.3%)
IWM: 25.85 (+1.1%)
Top 3: DECK +9.5%, GI +7.5%, JLG 4.3%
Added to the +7.3% from previous week, JLG has made an amaaazing recovery.
Bottom 3: GIL -3.4%, RUSHB -1.7%, UPL -1.0%
Last week UPL was our winner with 11%, so a little correction is not surprising.
One stock closed the week 5% or higher than its previous record close, and sets a new record high: DECK
This week SFY, WSFS and TNP are marked "stalling". I don't want to replace more than one stock per week, and this time SFY will be dumped, to be replaced by GGB.
Last week TNP went for 39.00, a gain of 18.2%, or 10.5% annualized. That's not what I am playing for, and it is also lower than SPY (dividends included). TS entered the fund at 183.45.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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And QHF, my Marketocracy fund with $$$Mr.Market$$$ like picks bounces back 3.2%. The fund beats all three indexes we compare it with, passes QQQQ and leaves last place.
QHF: 23.97 (+3.2%)
SPY: 24.16 (+1.6%)
QQQQ: 23.62 (+2.2%)
IWM: 25.57 (+2.4%)
Top 3: UPL +11.0%, VLO +8.1%, JLG +7.3%
Bottom 3: EPEX -6.0%, GIL -1.5%, VNBC -0.2%
This week WSFS, SFY and TNP are marked "stalling". I don't want to replace more than one stock per week, and TNP goes, as the development of its revenue and earnings look worst of the bunch. It will be replaced by TS.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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Oh my!
QHF: 23.23 (-4.4%)
SPY: 23.78 (-0.2%)
QQQQ: 23.11 (-0.2%)
IWM: 24.96 (-1.2%)
My fund really got hammered this week. No problem, we're in this for the long haul. Let's hope the reason is that some picks were rather stale, by now. But the four picks from 2006 so far, JLG, GI, GIL and CIB, were on average down as much as the rest.
Top 3: WSFS +2.5%, RUSHB +1.4%, GIL -0.1%. Yes, number 3 is negative.
Bottom 3: EPEX -14.4%, KCS -11.9%, JLG -10.7%. JLG was the first 2006 pick, after a year of inactivity. JLG is still up over 18%.
PVTB was sold for a total gain of 206%, or almost 40% annualized. CIB was bought for 33.77
This week KCS is marked "stalling", and will not be replaced. This brings the total number of stocks held down to 15, my target.
Regards,
KarelLeave a comment:
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