Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[MEA_1956]

We sure would like an update on the water cooler. You know they sell them in a sleeeeek low profile. Where you have to bend real low to sample the water. I hope LOIS has a closet full of short skirts, so you get all pumped up and can make your port sore like an Eagel.

URBN is trading in that danger zone like CWEI was trading at. Above there 1 yr. Est. I wish you well with this one. ===> MEA

[Karel]

Oh my, still wearing that stupid Superman badge...

[Karel]

Lois...

Now if only I had a drinking fountain ...

[MEA_1956]

Kinda sounds like Karel my be our very own Clark Kent. Deadlines, more when the print hits the street. Kinda makes you wounder if Karel and Loius don't have a thing going on over by the drinking fountain. ===> MEA

[Karel]

Sorry, deadlines and so. The fund stands at 15.83, SPY and QQQ at 16.50 and 16.65 respectively.

Bye!

[Karel]

The fund lost a bit this week, and now stands at 15.65. the fictitional SPY fund now stands at 16.61, and the QQQ fund would be at 16.83. This not the catching up we need!

I had a bunch of 5% losers this week in the fund: JOSB, FPIC, ECPG and NIHD. The bright spots were VNBC (+9.7%), and SFY and URBN reached a new 5% higher weekly close.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

OK, the fund scratched another percent together and now stands at 15.72. The bad news is that a fictitional SPY fund, started at the same time as these reports, would now be at 16.41 (flat), and a QQQ fund would be at 16.54. Well, the fund has some catching up to do!

I had a horribly complicated "who is in line to get sold" procedure, and I have simplified that a lot. The consequence is that some stocks I sold should not have been sold under the new regime, but that's life. The new one is easy: when stocks fail to make a new 5% higher weekly close in a couple of months, they might go. Right. No such stocks in sight yet, no stocks making a new mark, but two stocks with double digit gains: MSL +15% and ASFI +11%. Worst loser was KCS: -9%.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Not bad! The fund bounced back to 15.55, a 5% gain for the week. Four stocks scored a double digit gain, with URBN, the most recent acquisition, leading the pack with 14.59%. BLUD, BXG and URBN scored a new 5% higher week close (or better).

DRL got sold for 31.85, a 30% gain in 13 months. URBN was bought for 47.78. I think I'll stay put for a week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

I don't know if Nirvana is bottoming out or taking a breather for the next slide, but then I don't care very much. This is paper money. The fund is at 14.78, a gain for the week. Hurray. Two stocks scored a week close more than 5% over the last highest week close: BLUD and FPIC.

ITLA was sold for 41.01, a 16.7% gain in 13 months; BXG was bought for 10.45. This week, the fund will sell DRL and URBN will be its replacement.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Well, we're still in Nirvana

The fund is at 14.66. That's not too bad, seeing the market action in the previous week. We had a very mixed bag, with week results varying from -6.5% (DECK) to +22% (FPIC). We're still spring cleaning, and another stock that was overdue is ITLA. It will be replaced by BXG. Since more than half of my stocks are over 5% of my total portfolio value, I need to sell off one. The highest in percentage is PVTB, so I'll sell off a part of that one.

The port got out of USNA for 24.78, a 114% gain in 6 months. SFY was bought for 19.90.

Regards,

Karel

[jiesen]

great expectations

that's the spirit, Karel!

I hope I can achieve the same level of Nirvana someday.

[Karel]

Just to keep the score: the fund stood at 14.81 (14.37 after yesterday!). The pickings are slim after yesterday, but SFY looks nice enough. USNA will have to go, just like TTWO: it is giving back too much.

The port got out of TTWO for 28.66, a 33% gain in 7 months. RUSHB got in for 13.57.

Somewhere I found this quote; I think it was supposed to go in this thread:

Is this a case where you follow yourself to see how far backwards you are going. My in and out port has fell from 14% to the red zone this last week, so don't fell so down Karel, were all in the same Market.

MEA, thanks for the support. I am not really feeling down though, I am just keeping score. I don't mind to score losses once in a while, because I expect to get over them again.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Good grief! The average stock in my fund lost 4.5% this week! Four stocks lost more than 10%: COCO, USNA, MBT, NIHD, and DECK. Errm, that's five stocks Only three stocks were up, and one of them, BLUD, no less than 14%, a new "5% higher weekly close". The fund dropped to 15.16, or a drop of 4.3% for the week. QQQ dropped more, SPY dropped less, so who am I to complain.

What to do? Just go on. NFI dropped again; there is a SEC Informal Inquiry into NFI, that may be a reason. But we'll give NFI a bit more time (I won't sell in under 6 weeks), as there are still enough candidates to drop. TTWO has had enough time, made us a profit, but is giving back too much. It will be replaced by RUSHB.

WDC got sold for 8.95, a 21% loss in 5 months. KCS was bought for 12.23. Its 1.7% loss since then was one of the bright spots of the week.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

billyjoe, I filter for a daily dollar volume of $500,000 (average). I don't have strict sell signals. Your example makes me shudder! No, I look at my stocks each weekend, and that is it. But I "expect" my stocks to make better than 50% / year, and when they fall below that line, they run the risk of getting sold. This is where the highs come in. I expect a certain return. When a stock closes the week 5% over the last "high" and above the expected return, I use that new close as the new reference point for the expected returns.

I know I am buying in an updraft and likely to sell in a downdraft this way, but we'll see.

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel, Do you have a minimum volume required for a stock to be considered in your fund? Do you have any strict sell signals such as 3 consecutive days down on increased volume? What is your goal for yearly gain? Thanks,
billyjoe