Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

NGPS:
Channel-wise it's weak.
Long-term fib-wise, it's in a good spot to take long.

[Michaelk005]

Hey spike, wondering about your thoughts on CAT, Im looking for the reversal and dont see the target im lookin for. Where would you shoot for a possible turn point. Looks to me like 83- $83. 50
Thanks.

[spikefader]

Hey spike, wondering about your thoughts on CAT, Im looking for the reversal and dont see the target im lookin for. Where would you shoot for a possible turn point. Looks to me like 83- $83. 50
Thanks.

Doesn't look good for bulls.... Possible turn is at 80?? I'd not take it until the chart strengthens though. The other ugly thing I've not noted in the chart comments is the 3month SHS that targets 82.50ish.
Good luck.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
I wanted to give you a heads up on a possible play,DRL just bounced off a 50% retrace between 32 and 49.On top of that massive inside buys at 42.

Looks to me like a 20% gain is likely,if not more if it returns to recent high.

Aso DRL is regularly in Ernies candidates for top five.

cordially Tom

[kingofthehill]

spike what is your short term read on Elan , this guy thinks march $30.00 strike price might be good .

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=12402&obspage=2

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
I wanted to give you a heads up on a possible play,DRL just bounced off a 50% retrace between 32 and 49.On top of that massive inside buys at 42.

Looks to me like a 20% gain is likely,if not more if it returns to recent high.

Aso DRL is regularly in Ernies candidates for top five.

cordially Tom

Thnx Tom! Appreciate it.

[spikefader]

spike what is your short term read on Elan , this guy thinks march $30.00 strike price might be good .

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/co...2402&obspage=2

Here are my thoughts:

[Thomrich]

Greetings ,

As usual,my exit from NGPS was the buy signal everyone was waiting for.I think sometimes over analyzing a trade makes the decision process double minded.

On one hand compelling evidence from a long term Fib. retrace,with 19.75 holding up with frenzied buying.

On the other,from reading on the turtle trader site,finding a bottom,or trading against the trend is likely to fail.As with ESMC, bottoms have been picked for 1year now.

Spike if you could give some thought,how do you detemine whether buying into weakness is prudent,as was stated before,when a stock traces down to a target you only dreamed of getting filled,once it gets there,you wonder why it dropped,and should you still buy?

I have a list of stocks that I flagged as buys if the price ever dropped,now that they've dropped,they dont look so good.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Hey Thomrich.

I think you may have nailed the problem: Overanalyzing.

How do I determine whether buying weakness is prudent? Simple: There has to be a valid technical setup that justifies it. If it doesn't justify it, don't take the trade. If the technical setup is there, then it's prudent. OK, but what must exist for me to justify it? Well, you know what things I look for: Channel long day with a nice target showing good R/R, attractive intraday pattern or support entry. If those aren't met, or they're met but something else raises an ugly T.A factor, then I don't take the trade. Buying weakness is all about buying something that looks ugly for the moment. But that's an edge to be exploited. Set your limits and stick to them. Second guessing something based on an opposing thought or arguement is just a time-waster and will send you to the looney bin. There will ALWAYS be an opposing argument about a trade. All one can do is accept that there is both a reason to buy and a reason not to, but that your setup conditions have been met and you're willing to draw a line in the sand and make a commitment, with an escape clause if you're proven wrong.

Forget about perfection and focus on discipline. Failure is a given - but the degree of failure is not. What is the implication of this? Plan for failure, accept that it will happen, feel good about how you're going to react to it. Keep it within your limits and be happy depsite being wrong. We are not infallable, and shouldn't aspire to be. Instead, aspire to be prepared for our weaknesses and mistakes. This we CAN control, if you can just control the negative emotion that rises up in front of us when we are shown to be wrong.

Your NGPS exit is a good example. You might now feel that you made a mistake to get out. But if your exit rules were met and you ACTED on them, that is a great thing and you are to be back-slapped. Some people don't have exit rules, and that's great if it works for them. Mr.M for example, he hedges his bets and has a model that has proven itself, he knows he's not good at timing the market, and sticks to his guns and discipline, and he is a LEGEND for doing that. He has great discipline. Where else can you find someone that sticks to a model as rigidly as he does? No, he's not perfect and sometimes times the entries turn out to start immediately in the red, but so what?? He's got his system and his discipline, and it rewards him. If we could all aspire to do the same in our own ways, with our own styles, with our own systems, and we can do it profitably, then we are a success. The key is working out what to do and doing it. I guarantee that 99% of market losers are losers simply because they are inexperienced, and simply are not good at doing what they set out to do because they let emotion direct them as opposed to logic and discipline. The short answer is plan the trade and trade the plan.

Best to all.

[MickyMouse]

Hi Spike,

What's your take on WLDA? A chart analysis will be most help.

Thx alot.

Micky

[spikefader]

Re this short, the QQQQ vector closed bullish today. Will look to exit this short and open long position. Bull suit back on!

EDIT: Covered this morning for a measly -.25 or - .06%. I dunno why I bother with the Qs More hassle than it's worth hehe

[New-born baby]

[QUOTE

Spike,

You say 8 weeks or so. Let's say that between now and March 30, 2005, if BPT hits $55 just once (yes, I'll give you leeway on both time and price), I owe you some A&W root beer. And I'll even send you some Wisconsin CHOCOLATE CHEESE (wonderful stuff) and perhaps a chunk of Swiss, or whatever type of cheese you like best!

df, Keep watch on this for us, will ya?

Spike,

Congratutations on a great call. I was watching BPT touch $55.00 at 11:00 EST, and then back off! But I'll be sending you the cheese and a check for the root beer. Enjoy!

[spikefader]

[QUOTE=New-born baby]

Spike,

Congratutations on a great call. I was watching BPT touch $55.00 at 11:00 EST, and then back off! But I'll be sending you the cheese and a check for the root beer. Enjoy!

LOL, I know!! Backed off right at 55.00 suggesting it's gonna top out there. If it does it would be hilarious

I'm really expecting it to chugalug on up for a while though - probably an upper channel. The thing is just rocking on the weekly, maybe even 69.00 within a couple months.

Seriously though, thanks New-born. Even a broken clock is right twice a day No denying ascending triangles are a really nice pattern. I don't look to trade them enough myself.

Ya know, your generosity is great, so thanks. But really, I'm not gonna hold you to it. Just pray some blessings for me and my family (do I recall correctly that you're a preacher?) and that'll be worth more to me. Some of the knuckleheads are 'lost' and the more prayers the better, ya know?

All the best bro.

[New-born baby]

You've got it.

Spike,

Thank you, and you have your request. I trust your whole family will be saved soon. I will pray so.

BPT at 69.00? I can believe it now, but it is incredible! Oil prices are so high, and earnings at XOM at $8.4B, it has affected EENC, DOM, PWI and PGH. They haven't dropped this month.

[spikefader]

Thanks New-born.

QQQQ long again. Come on bull. Do something.