Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • IIC
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 14938

    Originally posted by spikefader
    OK, Vector closed bearish. I'm going to take a neutral stance and wait.
    Fashionably late I see...Just kidding
    "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

    Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

    Follow Me On Twitter

    Comment

    • RL
      Senior Member
      • Sep 2003
      • 1215

      Spike If I'm boring you

      with this or taking up to much of your time let me know Milken Back In The Stock Manipulation game

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Michael Milken has fought a long and hard battle to cleanse his public image, and take on the appearance of a benefactor to the sick and the uneducated, an all around good guy and positive force in the world. Most people have bought the careful and expensive spin job. Hardly anyone remembers the 80 or so criminal counts brought against him by Giuliani, under RICO. Very few mentions about him going to Federal Prison for felonies are to be found. It would appear that history goes to those with the fattest wallets.

      The message boards have been abuzz with speculation involving Mr. Milken, following a one hour conference call and presentation by Overstock.com CEO Patrick Bryne. In that call, he articulated an illegal stock manipulation scheme that was run by a "Master Mind", and which involved hedge funds, the media, influential investors, and private investigators Kroll Associates.

      The Kroll connection got me thinking, as did the speculations that the Master Mind was a play on words, where the initials signaled the identity of the arch criminal directing the game. MM = Michael Milken. If that was the case, what corroborating evidence could be found to either destroy the idea, or support it?

      In Den of Thieves, a book by James B. Stewart about the Drexel Junk Bond days, we get a glimpse of the seamy side of Wall Street and the evil that some men cheerfully do. in it, particularly, we get a connection made between two of the players in the Bryne piece: Jules Kroll, founder of Kroll, and Michael Milken. From the book: "They hired a private investigator, Jules Kroll, to unearth damaging information about Boesky. They portrayed Boesky as a liar who couldn't be trusted, and as a far greater criminal than the government had admitted." Kroll has since then been a speaker for the Milken Foundation, and is David Einhorn's neighbor.

      Einhorn is mentioned repeatedly by Bryne, and so much so that it is worth commenting on the fact that his proximity to Kroll, his connection to Barron's (his wife was an editor there - Cheryl Strauss Einhorn), and his participation as a short seller in many of the companies targeted by Bryne's "cartel" is suspicious.

      Bryne also claims that Kroll has him under investigation, and makes a compelling argument for that. He apparently went to their offices, and wanted to sign an NDA so that he could hire them - which they spent an hour dodging (they can't sign an NDA on someone they are investigating). If Kroll features in this, it would be another eyebrow raising issue given his history and association with Milken and Einhorn.

      The second tier up from the Master Mind is a box marked "Bottom Feeder - Final Owner". This is the money guy with beneficial ownership of the sleazy hedge funds that engage in illegal activity, and supposedly directs the operations on a tactical level, with the Master Mind directing it on a strategic level. Bryne said, on his conference call, "Now, can I tell you who that designated bottom feeder was who was supposed to end up with our company? Can I tell you? I can." I can. Another fun play on words? I can. Icahn? Carl Icahn? The billionaire takeover specialist and corporate raider? If true, and Bryne's vision is correct, we have Carl Icahn acting as the money guy and tactical point, Milken acting as the Strategic thinker, and Kroll acting in much the same role as he did for Milken in the 80's - digging up dirt and doing corporate espionage on target companies.

      Icahn was aided by Milken while Milken was at Drexel, and he assisted Icahn with several notable takeover financings, so that connection is solidly made.

      Milken was involved is a very similar, highly involved and complex manipulation scheme when he was arrested and indicted in the 80's. From Riskglossary.com:

      "The SEC and the US Attorney's office for Southern Manhattan conducted parallel investigations that soon extended beyond the immediate participants in Levine's ring. Abuses were widespread. There seemed to be an entire web of relationships among professionals exchanging information and other favors, including the parking of stock, the accumulation of stock to pressure firms' management, and stock price manipulation. Levine's ring provided investigators a point of entry to this web. Famous market participants were soon embroiled in the investigations, including investment banker Martin Siegel of Kidder Peabody, arbitrager Robert Freeman of Goldman Sachs, and arbitrager Ivan Boesky, who ran his own trading firm.

      Inexorably, the investigations led to Milken. At the center of his junk bond universe, Milken was engaged is numerous abuses. He traded on and exchanged inside information gleaned from his junk bond underwriting. He was engaged in stock parking and colluded with Boesky and others to manipulate the stocks of takeover targets. He actively misled regulators."

      What we have here is a template description for the abuses that Bryne discusses, updated for modern technology. Collusion, stock manipulation, insider trading and front running, "an entire web of relationships among professionals exchanging information and other favors"...Isn't that what Bryne described to a tee? A web of media, class action attorneys (Milberg Weiss being the most visible, having sued every major Rocker Partners short), cronies with pull at regulators, finance and trading assistance from the big brokerage firms, inter-related hedge funds, etc.

      This is almost the exact same scheme.

      So why does is the media silent about this, and why are our lawmakers and regulators absent? Why is there not a full scale criminal investigation underway to ascertain if there is any truth to Bryne's description of the manipulation ring?

      In the original Milken case, Arthur Levine, a relatively minor figure in the scandal led to Boesky, who ultimately led to Milken - that scheme's Master Mind. Levine had a network of asociates that traded on inside information using offshore accounts; again, exactly like what Bryne describes in his scenario.

      There are far more similarities in Bryne's allegations than there are dicrepencies with the original Milken scam ring, and it seems plausible that the same criminals, having gotten a wrist slap the first time, are back in business in a big way today. So much so, it is impossible not to believe that the DOJ, FBI and SEC absolutely must open investigations immediately.

      All of these views are the opinions of the author.



      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      ime let me know.
      Ray Long

      Comment

      • Lyehopper
        Senior Member
        • Jan 2004
        • 3678

        Spike Where Are You Man?!!!

        need a read on PARL intraday!
        BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

        Comment

        • spikefader
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 7175

          Originally posted by Lyehopper
          need a read on PARL intraday!
          Had a few things I had to take care of.

          PARL in a tricky location here. If you chased the channel turn up at the closing price 31.23 that day, it has worked nicely (never got to the intraday pivot), but the 8% gain means stop to even now as far as I see it.

          Today's action suggests a gap fill to me. I would have preferred the open was sold to fill the gap, especially considering that gap isn't on extraordinary volume, so you can't call it a runaway, certainly after the lower opening today.

          So in the face of that risk of a gap fill, so it might well be a good time to sell here at intraday pivot 33.57 and go for a gap fill entry long again. That's +7.4% from the aggressive entry which is pretty good. Risking that gain in the face of a gap fill (with a double top intraday now at 33.63), seems pretty silly. But then again, it's a great entry and one should give them every chance. Tricky location this one.

          Comment

          • spikefader
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 7175

            Originally posted by Lyehopper
            I'm gonna keep em comming Spike, Till I see what you see. What's your take on MIKR?
            OK, I'll get to it asap. Today is nuts, so probably tomorrow morning.
            Originally posted by IIC
            Fashionably late I see...Just kidding
            Haha, yes. Now watch the market rally and I'll chase that too! Ah the joys of following a reactive indicator. Of course it's gonna lag and be late, and it chops it up often enough. I might just not even bother posting it. Avoid embarrassment then Maybe I'll just pick a bias and stick with it and I'll have to be right eventually! lol

            Comment


            • Greetings Spike,

              PTF came to me today and got in close to the LOD 16.80.Its hard for me to be patient sometimes,but it saved me .50 just waiting a day,now it can go back to 19 with my approval.

              Its getting hard to wait for SNAK,kept bid at 5.09,never even came close.Looking at its recent run,I can see what you mean by testing support.I may raise my bid a little,seeing it trades fairly light,if it makes a dip to support,I want to make sure I get filled.

              Another stock,LEXR,seeing as 4.73 fell yet it has rebounded,would the move back up past 4.73 have been a good signal to buy?Jack Schwagers book on TA comments that failed signals can make great buying opps.Your thoughts,

              cordially Tom

              Comment

              • skiracer
                Senior Member
                • Dec 2004
                • 6314

                Originally posted by Thomrich
                Greetings Spike,

                PTF came to me today and got in close to the LOD 16.80.Its hard for me to be patient sometimes,but it saved me .50 just waiting a day,now it can go back to 19 with my approval.

                Its getting hard to wait for SNAK,kept bid at 5.09,never even came close.Looking at its recent run,I can see what you mean by testing support.I may raise my bid a little,seeing it trades fairly light,if it makes a dip to support,I want to make sure I get filled.

                Another stock,LEXR,seeing as 4.73 fell yet it has rebounded,would the move back up past 4.73 have been a good signal to buy?Jack Schwagers book on TA comments that failed signals can make great buying opps.Your thoughts,

                cordially Tom
                Thomrich,
                I've kind of got the fever for SNAK myself and have been watching it for the last 3 days. Have had a buy limit in for 5.10 and it didn't pullback to that and I raised it to 5.20 an it didn't pullback to that price. Then today it closes at 5.45, up .10 an it pisses me off but on low volume an it's a low volume stock anyway, so I still don't own it but you know what if we can't get it at our strategy and trigger point then we'll have to let it go and move on. I'm glad to see you have stuck to your strategy because if we had bougtht it against our original strategy you can bet you butt it would drop to 5.10 or lower and then we would be really pissed off and confused. At least this way we didn't prostitute ourselves just to own it. We'll get it at the right price and then everything will be the way we wanted it to be or we won't and that's that and we live to play another day.
                THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                Comment


                • Originally posted by skiracer
                  Thomrich,
                  I've kind of got the fever for SNAK myself and have been watching it for the last 3 days. Have had a buy limit in for 5.10 and it didn't pullback to that and I raised it to 5.20 an it didn't pullback to that price. Then today it closes at 5.45, up .10 an it pisses me off but on low volume an it's a low volume stock anyway, so I still don't own it but you know what if we can't get it at our strategy and trigger point then we'll have to let it go and move on. I'm glad to see you have stuck to your strategy because if we had bougtht it against our original strategy you can bet you butt it would drop to 5.10 or lower and then we would be really pissed off and confused. At least this way we didn't prostitute ourselves just to own it. We'll get it at the right price and then everything will be the way we wanted it to be or we won't and that's that and we live to play another day.
                  Greetings Skiracer,

                  Very good post and Im sure Spike would agree.

                  Looking at a 3mo chart,every time its built this nice platform to rise from,it has always dropped to previous support.I dont want to overpay,yet I dont want to miss the run.I think it will be a free for all if it does drop to the low 5s,so I think I may raise my bid also.I hope both of us get in if it does test support.

                  The word on the message boards FWIW,is that of all companies HANS is looking to buy SNAK,wouldnt that be a twist to a Mr Market play.

                  cordially Tom

                  BTW the API forecast $5 gas next year.

                  Comment

                  • Websman
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 5545

                    Originally posted by Thomrich
                    Greetings Skiracer,

                    Very good post and Im sure Spike would agree.

                    Looking at a 3mo chart,every time its built this nice platform to rise from,it has always dropped to previous support.I dont want to overpay,yet I dont want to miss the run.I think it will be a free for all if it does drop to the low 5s,so I think I may raise my bid also.I hope both of us get in if it does test support.

                    The word on the message boards FWIW,is that of all companies HANS is looking to buy SNAK,wouldnt that be a twist to a Mr Market play.

                    cordially Tom

                    BTW the API forecast $5 gas next year.
                    Be a Vulcan my human friend. Forget emotions and follow the plan. After all, there are over 8000 stocks available to trade.

                    Of course that's easy to say and hard to practice.

                    Comment

                    • skiracer
                      Senior Member
                      • Dec 2004
                      • 6314

                      Originally posted by Thomrich
                      Greetings Skiracer,

                      Very good post and Im sure Spike would agree.

                      Looking at a 3mo chart,every time its built this nice platform to rise from,it has always dropped to previous support.I dont want to overpay,yet I dont want to miss the run.I think it will be a free for all if it does drop to the low 5s,so I think I may raise my bid also.I hope both of us get in if it does test support.

                      The word on the message boards FWIW,is that of all companies HANS is looking to buy SNAK,wouldnt that be a twist to a Mr Market play.

                      cordially Tom

                      BTW the API forecast $5 gas next year.
                      Thomrich,
                      Now that you mention it SNAK would be a great fit to go along with HANS product line. That news would provide a positive bounce up I'm sure. Stick with the plan until it becomes apparent that we must adjust. It will show and tell us if that becomes the case.
                      THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                      Comment

                      • IIC
                        Senior Member
                        • Nov 2003
                        • 14938

                        Haha, yes. Now watch the market rally and I'll chase that too! Ah the joys of following a reactive indicator. Of course it's gonna lag and be late, and it chops it up often enough. I might just not even bother posting it. Avoid embarrassment then Maybe I'll just pick a bias and stick with it and I'll have to be right eventually! lol

                        But you know this...We make more $$$ when we are right than we lose when we are wrong...And it all works out
                        "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

                        Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

                        Follow Me On Twitter

                        Comment

                        • mystiky
                          Senior Member
                          • Dec 2004
                          • 333

                          Anyone with an update on FORD?

                          Looks like low 24's is the support for FORD - the question is: Will it hold it before the next step up or will it break down to the $22 level before heading back upwards?

                          Spike! We need help!

                          Comment

                          • IIC
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 14938

                            Originally posted by mystiky
                            Looks like low 24's is the support for FORD - the question is: Will it hold it before the next step up or will it break down to the $22 level before heading back upwards?

                            Spike! We need help!
                            Spike is the "Master Technician" around here...but I see STRONG support around 22.80 on FORD myself...Doug(IIC)
                            "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

                            Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

                            Follow Me On Twitter

                            Comment

                            • spikefader
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 7175

                              Well, markets looking pretty weak at this stage of today. Just shorted Dow futures at 10548 for a swing.

                              Comment

                              • spikefader
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 7175

                                Originally posted by Lyehopper
                                I'm gonna keep em comming Spike, Till I see what you see. What's your take on MIKR?
                                MIKR; bearish bias for me.

                                Weekly chart is below.

                                On the daily the channel from June high is down, with a minor channel short last week that is in play still, and a channel turn down from the 6.35 low. Money flow on the daily looking good, but daily volume is very low, so I think it's an illusion. This one needs work, so shelve it and look for others and come back to this in a few months to see if it's improved. See, the bad ones take time to turn into good ones. Watching them won't make it happen faster In fact, it'll make it happen slower...like watching my coffee maker today; man it was slow. I needed caffeine badly! hehe


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