Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[scifos]

Clearly bullish ain't it!

Try and bring 'em to our attention when they're at the C long!!! hehe

Got in at about 87 back in mid october. Was wondering if I should keep it.

[spikefader]

Bought some GOOG +GOPLD call options, average of $2.30 during that dump. Bargain I think.

There's a welcome pop! Taking that 60% profit and running for the hills!

[spikefader]

Spike,
Don't take me the wrong way please. I'm serious about my take on things when I post. It's not a matter of being right or wrong. I want to see the best for everyone and Mystiky didn't take either one of our advice. I hate to see someone take a hit just so I could be right. I'd rather be wrong since I'm not losing any money on it and neither are you. We both gave valid reasoning and this is just the way it came down.

Yup, copy that five by five. I feel the same way.

[spikefader]

Got in at about 87 back in mid october. Was wondering if I should keep it.

Nice one. Yup, I would and target that weekly upper channel currently 106 and rising. When I say target, watch what it does there, and bail at the perfect time intraday with close to 22% profit. OR you could just let it play out 5 more waves and exit on an anticipated completion, or even wait for 'c' failure if you're longterm bull for it. But nice play that one. Pretty count to show off there, cuz you look like you got in on the clever Green 2 correction.

[skiracer]

Spike / Skiracer,

Well, I guess I am not the happiest with the SMSC action (as of this typing, it's retesting a NEW DAYS low), but I have decided to hold it through the earnings.

Somehow, it still feels like it's a "shakeout" of shares...

I dont like to use the word HOPE when I am trading, but this has to be that "rare" case.

Mystiky,
If you would have been more patient, read the postscript at the bottom of Spikes posts, you would have been able to get an entry approx. $2+ cheaper and maybe more plus would have the advantage of seeing what the earnings report was going to look like before putting your capital at risk. It could have gone the other way just as easily but it didn't and now you're relying on hope. I hope it turns and goes the other way for you in the advent of a great earnings report but again that's only hope. I still feel it was to aggressive a play for me but if I had of entered at your point like you did I would have been out at my stop loss and cut the loss off early. So would have Spike and much sooner than me in that respect. So I think you did two things wrong but that's only my opinion. I really hope it turns with a great eps report so you can say I told you so. But you cannot escape the fact that it is what it is and where it closed today.

[spikefader]

Yep, all of what Ski said, and one more thing. Sell this AH pop for breakeven and reassess it.

[scifos]

Nice one. Yup, I would and target that weekly upper channel currently 106 and rising. When I say target, watch what it does there, and bail at the perfect time intraday with close to 22% profit. OR you could just let it play out 5 more waves and exit on an anticipated completion, or even wait for 'c' failure if you're longterm bull for it. But nice play that one. Pretty count to show off there, cuz you look like you got in on the clever Green 2 correction.

Thanks, I was watching it because it was rediculously low valued (P/E something like 8 or 10) and had positive earnings and little debt. Waited for a nice spot to buy and it worked. Its still fairly cheap earnings wise (14.57 v 15.31 for industry and 21.14 for s&p) and earnings growth this year 114% but p/s and p/b are higher than industry. I don't know a lot about the merits of price/cash flow, but it's only 1/2 of the industry average.

[skiracer]

Yep, all of what Ski said, and one more thing. Sell this AH pop for breakeven and reassess it.

Just amazing. I'm keeping my mouth shut from now on. Turns out to be a great play. Good.

[spikefader]

Just amazing. I'm keeping my mouth shut from now on. Turns out to be a great play. Good.

Well strictly speaking, mystiky had hope in that trade, and no downside protection by the appearance of it. Hate to be critical but if we get real here it's not a great play. A great play is having a plan and sticking with the rules. I still think mystiky should still close the position and reassess what happened and what to learn from it. That, plus pops AH on earnings often get sold, so I won't be surprized if it sells over the next couple hours.

[spikefader]

Well still bullish at close, but back to the single position in YM after that breakeven stopout on the add.

[mystiky]

Out of SMSC...with a profit!

Spike / Skiracer,

I have to tell you that thanks to this message board (and Mr. Market also), I have learned quite a bit about trading. But sometimes, you just get that feeling that charts, analysis are not making sense. This was the case for me with SMSC. I would had never thought about going long the stock at the 31+ levels. It looked too "topsy". Then, when I saw the drop down over the past few days, I suddenly remembered that the same thing was happening to it before the LAST earnimngs (look at the September 15 - 21 trading action). I almost NEVER play earnings anymore. Way to risky!

I did my research, and decided to buy on a GUT feeling. I bought some today at 30.40, 29.40, 28.80, 28.15 and finally at 27.75. Honestly, I went against my own rules, charts, control, emotion....but not one thoing: LOGIC.
To me, logic is different than hope.

I really felt that SMSC would not dissapoint. And they did not. I just dumped all of those shares back onto market for a nice profit.

*****************
16:14 SMSC Standard Micro beats by $0.05; guides for Q4 (27.93 -3.50)

Reports Q3 (Nov) earnings of $0.38 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.33; revenues rose 70.5% year/year to $86.6 mln vs the $83.4 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.28-0.34 vs. $0.31 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $82-86 mln vs. $81.47 mln consensus.
*****************

YES, it could had easily gone the other way but sometimes if you have followed a stock for a while, you learn how it trades. I really felt that the market makers were trying to get cheap shares, and there is that IBD crowd that soon as they have their 8% stop loss, they run faster than rats out of a sinking boat, creating buying opportunities.

The reason that I am writing this is not to rub anyones face and show how they were wrong and how I was right. I am learning daily, and my god, do I appreciate everyones help here. If I had not started to learn about charting, I would still be loosing money, as I did for many years.

Thank you again everyone!

Spike,
Don't take me the wrong way please. I'm serious about my take on things when I post. It's not a matter of being right or wrong. I want to see the best for everyone and Mystiky didn't take either one of our advice. I hate to see someone take a hit just so I could be right. I'd rather be wrong since I'm not losing any money on it and neither are you. We both gave valid reasoning and this is just the way it came down.

[skiracer]

Well strictly speaking, mystiky had hope in that trade, and no downside protection by the appearance of it. Hate to be critical but if we get real here it's not a great play. A great play is having a plan and sticking with the rules. I still think mystiky should still close the position and reassess what happened and what to learn from it. That, plus pops AH on earnings often get sold, so I won't be surprized if it sells over the next couple hours.

Spike,
I didn't mean it in the context that I thought it was a great play. I thought it was loose and undisciplined to start with but was happy it turned out to be great for Mystiky in the AH. Hope it doesn't sell off. I wonder if he has tried to exit in the AH. Anyway I'm glad it turned out positive for him with the reprort. He's still not out of the woods unless he bailed in the AH. Not a great report but above concensus.

[sekto]

can some one assist me in analyzing the siri chart?

I can see the support level at 6.00 and resistance looks to be around 7.50
rsi for 14 days shows just below 50 with a small uptrend.

Im not sure but, just prior to the small break in resistance at 7.50 recently was that a cup with handle pattern?

Can someone tell me if my analysis is even close or what i can do to improve it? Also can someone give me a quick explanation of gaps in the chart.
Thanks in advance, sorry i couldnt post the chart on here, i cant upload anything on this gov comp.

[spikefader]

mystiky,
Glad you worked it out for a profit. I'm seeing another setup for it now AH. Pretty good r/r just under 10; risking 1.3% for 13%.

[skiracer]

Mystiky,
What price did you end up exiting at?