Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

RE still a good short for conservative stalkers.

[Runner]

Spike, what ya think of ZRAN's intraday chart? Just thinking it may pop. My moving averages I track are all converging here. I'm looking 3-minute time zone..

[spikefader]

Runner,
I think long is wrong until it beats the double top. I think we'll see 15.00 before 18.00. I think the right play is short today's pivot 17.15 with 2% stop or R1 17.45 with sub 1% stop. The only problem is the target. Not good enough to make a worthwhile r/r so I'd pass on that setup.
Good luck.

[Runner]

Spike, I think your right. ZRAN is trying to fall down. I think I'll leave it alone.

[spikefader]

Coli: Today's pattern more 'significant' failure for GOOG than a simple trendine break.



And now on the daily you've got a potential SHS setting up now. Break of the neckline would be 'at risk of trouble'.

[coli]

Hi spike, my track record is horrible right now. So you don't want to know unless you like to lose money. Hahaha.

I'm still really new to trading stocks, and it's amazing how many new and different mistakes I managed to make. So far though, I think I'm learning nicely. The last few trades have been profitable even when the stock got a down day...

When I'm consistantly profitable, I'll let you people know my setups then. I promise

[billyjoe]

Spike,
You old troublemaker (POTW), just kidding. Have a slight glitch in the Cheap Stock Port. Today being Tuesday, stops are set at 6% of opening prices. None have been stopped yet this week. My info. shows that RWC opened at 9.00 after closing at 7.40. It is now trading at a more reasonable 7.60. Could this be an error? If it's not and my stop triggered at 8.55, I'm up 15.5% on it. Since this is paper only I'll take the gain , but it seems funny to me. How often do you see these wild one time numbers? Thanks.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Spike,
Darn it. It was an error, there goes my 15.5%. This brings up another question. What if such a mistake triggers stops, are we just SOL ? I found the quote on many sources so it wasn't coming from a typo at my site. What if that money had transferred to another position. The possibilities just keep multiplying. Heads will roll! I demand accountability !

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Hi spike, my track record is horrible right now. So you don't want to know unless you like to lose money. Hahaha.

I don't mind losin' money, just not a lot of it!!

...amazing how many new and different mistakes I managed to make....so far I think I'm learning nicely. The last few trades have been profitable even when the stock got a down day

Yep, it's a long and steep learning curve ain't it. Easy way through it is to accept the need to modify yourself so the same mistakes don't get made over and over. But on that comment about learning and profitable, consider this:

an unprofitable trade (or a series of losers) might be the trades of a lifetime! Some people would question the logic of that one, but a mistake isn't making a loss....a mistake is breaking a rule or failing to make a rule. If your losses were small and the result of fine discipline and downside protection and that stock falls to zero then your trade has been proven to be an outstanding one, despite the loss. Emotion allows you to feel like you did a good thing and were smart. But it's easy to not see the value in any losses, especially when price doesn't prove the exit was right but rather it shoots in the direction your trade favored and it makes you look foolish.

The value of your exit is hidden in the cloud of uncertainty about the validity of your exit. But the reality is that the value is/was/will always still be there. The trade was still awesome because it centered around discipline and saved you from the unknown, and admitted you were wrong at accepted loss levels. So love those disciplined losses and reward yourself for them...even brag about them to others. Brag about the truth that control of an issue is better than uncontrolled profits.

This way of thinking is much much more valuable in my opinion than a trade that is profitable after you've broken rules and let emotion influence any part of the trade. That's just messing with your head and setting you up for failure because your poor behavior has been rewarded.

So the short of what I'm saying (and this has turned out longer than I intended) is don't measure success on whether your trading is net positive or negative, cuz that's not the key. The key is measuring the true value of entries and exits, i.e. how controlled were they. Success is control, not money. Much like life. Success in life is living a good clean honest disciplined hard working faithful and devoted life, earning what you get by good deeds. Success in life is NOT earning the most money by being dishonest with yourself and/or those around you, by breaking rules, being out of control, cheating. It's all about self discipline and intentions in the face of the temptation to get emotional and out of control.

It's not the dollar worth that measures our success, but how we live our lives. It's not the dollar worth of a trade that measures our success, but how we've controlled the trade.

When I'm consistantly profitable, I'll let you people know my setups then. I promise

I look forward to it. I'd also read with interest a journal where you are accountable to this forum for your trades, losing ones some of them may be. You will benefit from it, trust me. And any smart trader will see the value in your controlled losses and applaud them, and when you nail that good trade that makes up for all of them, those smart traders will say, "Well it was only a matter of time, wasn't it?" and they will congratulate your patience and discipline. So don't NOT post setups and trades and your open positions merely because you don't have consistency you think will be viewed as acceptable. Cuz it's all good dude; even those losers!

Best to ya, and good luck in the hunt.

[spikefader]

Spike,
You old troublemaker (POTW), just kidding. Have a slight glitch in the Cheap Stock Port. Today being Tuesday, stops are set at 5% of opening prices. None have been stopped yet this week. My info. shows that RWC opened at 9.00 after closing at 7.40. It is now trading at a more reasonable 7.60. Could this be an error? If it's not and my stop triggered at 8.55, I'm up 15.5% on it. Since this is paper only I'll take the gain , but it seems funny to me. How often do you see these wild one time numbers? Thanks.
billyjoe

lol ya!

Just checked RWC and I don't see that spike. Maybe they cleared a bad tick.... As to how often they occur; often enough to be annoying

It was an error, there goes my 15.5%.

Doh, OK, now I see this .

This brings up another question. What if such a mistake triggers stops, are we just SOL ?

Exchanged do 'bust' trades when price action is just nutso, meaning they reverse any executed trades. Each exchange publish the guidlines, so look em up at your broker.

[Iggy]

I have a chart question regarding NMTI. I got in on the 29th of November at $18.00 and it currently is at $21.00 - without checking, I don't think it has had a single down day since I've held it. What should I be looking for in "the stock that never says die?"

I like the potential prospects of the company, so I don't want to sell and see it continue, but I've lost profits by holding too long more times than I care to recall.

[spikefader]

I have a chart question regarding NMTI. I got in on the 29th of November at $18.00 and it currently is at $21.00 - without checking, I don't think it has had a single down day since I've held it. What should I be looking for in "the stock that never says die?"

I like the potential prospects of the company, so I don't want to sell and see it continue, but I've lost profits by holding too long more times than I care to recall.

Well, the righteous thing to do with any wonderful trade is to give it the breathing room to turn into a phenomenal one.

But at the same time one should be realistic about what to expect from an impulsive stock like NMTI. Impulsive meaning EW impulsive.

The answer to your question lies in your own expectations, trading system and goals. It lies in how you deal with winners and how much rope you give them. Some will hang themselves with the rope, and some will use the extra slack to eventually fly to impressive levels. How does one really know which is which? Well you don't. One might convince themselves and others that they understand the fundamentals, or the technicals show this or that, but the bottom line is you'll never ever know where the top is going to come. There are patterns to increase your chances, but patterns fail just like every other indicator out there, and the market is going to do exactly what it wants with price action.

How would I deal with NMTI? I'd probably look for a 5th completion, or an upper channel tag with confirming intraday SHS to exit. Other people may wait for a larger weekly pattern like a SHS or double top to exit. There's no right answer to the question, save for the right answer for your trading habits and expectations. The final answer is make a smart plan, stick to it, and be happy no matter how high it climbs after your exit, or how low she sinks after your exit.

Good luck, and post your exit when it comes and I'll critique it. See if you can get a gold star for great trading from me hehe

[spikefader]

I'm a bear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Websman]

I'm a bear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Considering todays pulback before the close, I am also a bear.

[New-born baby]

NAZ--LYE's

I'm a bear!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here's a chart to support it. (via LYE-LINK, of course)

http://img111.imageshack.us/img111/9664/chart18pr.gif