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Originally posted by spikefader
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Here are the weekly thoughts for SGR.Originally posted by mystiky
Daily chart: also still an expanding short today. BUT; there's a clear broadening triangle formation over the last 6 months, so the play is let it break out and sit in ambush for a correction back to support. That way you avoid holding the bag on a failed breakout/triple top. If it's truly a valid broadening pattern, it will correct, and there will be an ideal smart time to enter, whether it's at price support or channel support, or aggressive time to take it long on a channel turn up later. This one is definately worth following, and give a heads up if I fail to post the correction after the breakout.
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Thanks for the detailed reply.Originally posted by spikefaderHere are the weekly thoughts for SGR.
Daily chart: also still an expanding short today. BUT; there's a clear broadening triangle formation over the last 6 months, so the play is let it break out and sit in ambush for a correction back to support. That way you avoid holding the bag on a failed breakout/triple top. If it's truly a valid broadening pattern, it will correct, and there will be an ideal smart time to enter, whether it's at price support or channel support, or aggressive time to take it long on a channel turn up later. This one is definately worth following, and give a heads up if I fail to post the correction after the breakout.
Looking at your drawn chart, I am kind of confused of where do you think it may come down to for support? Also, it seems that you have picked the week of September 2nd to base these numbers. And since today it closed above that tripple-top (by few cents), does it mean it has broken it?
I would love to hear your actual target #'s for upper channel and lower channel (support).
I am actually now thinking of shorting SGR for a point or two, as I think that RSI is getting so overbought (now around 7
and it's got to give back something. But the volume on the upside has been kinda of impressive.
Your comments as always much appreciated!Comment
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Sure, any time.Originally posted by mystikyThanks for the detailed reply.
Looking at your drawn chart, I am kind of confused of where do you think it may come down to for support? Also, it seems that you have picked the week of September 2nd to base these numbers. And since today it closed above that tripple-top (by few cents), does it mean it has broken it?
I would love to hear your actual target #'s for upper channel and lower channel (support).
I am actually now thinking of shorting SGR for a point or two, as I think that RSI is getting so overbought (now around 7 and it's got to give back something. But the volume on the upside has been kinda of impressive.
Your comments as always much appreciated!
OK, as to whether to fade the breakout move, it's about putting the edge on your side. I don't think the edge is looking to short a breakout stock when the market is so bullish. I'm very bullish right now, and caution any shorts! heh.
But back to the chart; It is in an impulse 3 on the daily. Where that ends is speculation, but the edge is on the long side. I'm resistant to shorting a stock with such a big powerful pattern like that broadening blue triangle. They are very significant patterns and show that there was no logical drive in any trend direction (although it has trended well due to the the pattern being large) That large pattern is what allows large targets. Respect the pattern, I think. If you really want to attempt the statistically tricky and fade the breakout, then you want to time the 3 completion and catch the 4 correction, but you'll need to be nimble. You'll need intraday patterns to help and the discipline of Moses to do it Good luck.
But upside target of the triangle is 29.00ish and channel target on the daily is 27.00, the minor weekly is 29.00ish, and on major weekly channel it's 26.00ish. I'd target 29.00 if I were holding long, and I'd call it a breakout now on the daily/weekly, and I'd look for a corrective move back in the weeks ahead.
As far as support to enter a long now, look for the 4 correction perhaps around 22.50 at a guess. It all depends on where 3 finishes. I'd say the 3rd has some more gas in it for a day or two, so expecting more push...then the correction for the entry. As I see it, you've missed the chase channel turn up back at 21.36. I'm picky, and I'm sure plenty of people would think it's going to the moon
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Greetings Spike,
Thanks for your time and effort,I got some AAPL,looked for the pivot,bougth just before it crossed R1.
$55 oct calls looked good this AM too.
On a side note,I asked about HLEX a while back,it had a recent CMF zero reject,and what looks like a break from what could be a nice wedge.Your thoughts,anything left?
cordially TomComment
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Good one! Yep, I think it'll reward. Kudos to Phobo for seeing the fundies in it early.Originally posted by Thomrich
HLEX: Yep, I think it's got some left. R/R not the best if you target X on the chart of 15%(?) with 4% risk, so you'd want to let it run for more or use a tighter stop, but it's a great chart. Love the weekly the money flow!Originally posted by Thomrich
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couple ng plays
Hey Spike,
can i have your take on gw and chk.
thanks
tjk
I think i hit a good entry on idxx again at 64.60, done well in the last two days, volume isnt quite there thoughComment
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Spike, I hope the DOW & the S&P bust through that resistance. I think there's a good chance we will... I don't know if I should sell out some of my positions at this point or wait and see what happens... I am fully invested right now with about 10% on SNAK, 5% on KG, and 5% on MFLX, and a small loss on NGPS. Trying to find a reason to sell one or two of them but can't! NGPS is on a triangle right now so I want to wait until it gets resolved. Although I learned that sometimes stocks do the opposite of the indices so I think I will just take it stock by stock and not really look at the indicies too much...whacha think?Comment
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I'm actually still stalking STV (even though I said I wouldn't touch it after this run up) but it looks like it has some great momentum right now... trade or not to trade...hmmComment
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RE STV: Do you really think it will go down that far, it looks like your channel is pointing to 21 or so and that's still 3 point away! I guess it's possible, but if it reverses Monday do you think its worth taking the trade?Comment
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Hi Spike,
I know I have not posted in more than a year, but can you give me your current perspective on AMZN and EBAY?
To me AMZN looks stronger than EBAY. EBAY looks like it wants to fill the July 22 gap. Would you buy EBAY if it does fill the gap? The attached charts, I drew the channels that look significant to me. What do you think? They both look bullish to me, but I would like your opinion. Thank, Mike.
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RVSN - another "Cramer" pump?
I hate bringing up his name, but for some reason during the last 2 months, Jim Cramer's MADMONEY TV show has moved stocks. Most of those gains are very short-lived, and this brings me to what happened on Friday.
He "pumped" a company called Radvision (RVSN). The company's stock closed at 12.05 in regular trading, but in after hours it closed at 13.64 (the high was around 13.80) on quite significant volume.
80% of Cramer's picks are usually gains if you "short into them". They typically runup for for a day or two and then slowly come right back down.
What are your thoughts on the RVSN chart? Does it look like a nice short around the 14 level? Again, it may be hard to gauge any of your charts, unless you are able to factor in the after-hours trading.
Thanks Spike!Comment
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