Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

TY: Bullish and will be worth chasing a channel turn up.

[dmk112]

Sike, still bullish on SNAK? It's been closing on several black candles and looking like it may reverse... your thoughts

[spikefader]

RE STV: Do you really think it will go down that far, it looks like your channel is pointing to 21 or so and that's still 3 point away! I guess it's possible, but if it reverses Monday do you think its worth taking the trade?

Naturally I don't know what it WILL do. I am just showing you what I think you should be stalking for and how I'd play it.

See, if you buy a bullish reversal now, I presume you'd be waiting for a bullish day to confirm it, and then you'd be buying during the 'b', with worse r/r, and the chances of seeing a red position for the length of 'c' are very high. And how long is the 'c' going to be? Who knows. So what I'd be doing is waiting for the channel support and intraday pattern and keep r/r the best. Or waiting for the 'c' length and an intraday pattern to confirm.

Let's face it; traders don't want ANY red There is nothing like getting the perfect entry and no pain. Something magical about it. And if one doesn't attempt to get them, one won't ever get them.

On the flip side, there's nothing worse than making an undiciplined or emotional entry only to see your position immediately turn red, either take out your stop, or sink out of control against you if you don't use stops.

This type of situation is what everyone should do their very best to avoid. You want to be patient. You want to be prepared. You want to be giving your entry every best chance to turn immediately profitable. And if that means letting a mover go completely and missing a ride, then let it happen and smile, and keep focussed instead of kicking yourself for not taking it. Because bottom line is you were disciplined and that's worth praise.

There is a perfect time to enter for every stock. Sometimes those times are few and far between...sometimes they occur more frequently. It's all dependant on the price action and the structure, and volume, and formation of support and resistance, and waves and all the rest. Sometimes you get crazy movers like STV, sometimes you get snails. I've let many a great looking chart go without me because it just wasn't right....recent examples are SNAK and LUB. And another where I've missed a huge move is VPHM. I had the perfect entry. I nailed it. It wasn't just right for me and I closed it for no loss and missed the 83% profit it gave in 18 trading days. But hey, that's OK. The pattern I wanted to see wasn't there and I was disciplined.

But then there's trades recent trades like SWSI (in the Hot Pick of the Day thread). First trade was perfect 'a' correction entry, and nice move to 23% profit. Second trade for SWSI is open and with 25% profit. And now the daily price action and wave count is such that I'm going to sit through a correction (and a potential double top) and look for new daily highs and a strong 3rd impulse to much more than 25%. So the good trades will happen; trust me. The bad trades will happen too, but it's a numbers game. With good r/r strategy and sensible stop managment the numbers in the long run will work in your favor, despite missing the VPHMs and the SNAKs, and in the face of all the losers combined

Good luck next week!

[spikefader]

Sike, still bullish on SNAK? It's been closing on several black candles and looking like it may reverse... your thoughts

Yes. There's a 'c' long entry at 6.00, and a channel turn up that had you chasing at 6.65 with stop to even now. Bullish while over 6.65.

[spikefader]

I hate bringing up his name, but for some reason during the last 2 months, Jim Cramer's MADMONEY TV show has moved stocks. Most of those gains are very short-lived, and this brings me to what happened on Friday.

He "pumped" a company called Radvision (RVSN). The company's stock closed at 12.05 in regular trading, but in after hours it closed at 13.64 (the high was around 13.80) on quite significant volume.

80% of Cramer's picks are usually gains if you "short into them". They typically runup for for a day or two and then slowly come right back down.

What are your thoughts on the RVSN chart? Does it look like a nice short around the 14 level? Again, it may be hard to gauge any of your charts, unless you are able to factor in the after-hours trading.

Thanks Spike!

I can backfill the afterhours stuff, but QT intraday chart is messing up and I can't see it. RVSN is close to resistance now, but I'd hold off. On the weekly there's a large ascending triangle. So I would wait for breakout and buy correction.

[dmk112]

Thanks for the words of wisdom Spike. I will watch stv closely next week...

[spikefader]

Hi Spike,

I know I have not posted in more than a year, but can you give me your current perspective on AMZN and EBAY?

To me AMZN looks stronger than EBAY. EBAY looks like it wants to fill the July 22 gap. Would you buy EBAY if it does fill the gap? The attached charts, I drew the channels that look significant to me. What do you think? They both look bullish to me, but I would like your opinion. Thank, Mike.

AMZN needs to do more work for me to get bullish. It's a channel short on the last weekly candle...and an expanding short on the weekly 5 weeks ago that is still open short.

EBAY faces the same kind of stuff; channel short on weekly and still profit-taking from the weekly upper channel tag 5 weeks ago.

[Runner]

TY: Bullish and will be worth chasing a channel turn up.

Hey nice find Spike. I like many of the charts in that group. A few others not looking bad AINV CHI DDF GAM JDD

[spikefader]

YHGG: It's a pink slip but another feature chart thanks to grebnet for the heads-up.

He's taking this one long in the port of the week comp, and it's a beauty. This is the type of setup that one waits for. Nice count, nice channel long, nice volume, nice money flow, nice vibes (although that doesn't count )

[spikefader]

RSAS ascending triangle.

[noshadyldy]

Eln

Hello Spike! Good thoughts and warm wishes to you as always.
I'm wondering about ELN. I got spooked last week when BIIB's press release came out about reduction in work force and the link was made to reduction in Tysabri's demand. ELN wiggled a little and looks a little slipperly in it's action but no real supports were broken. I've been straddling it though and would like to get off this uncomfortable fence! So.......
Please sir, may I have some more? (guidance!)

[dmk112]

So many stocks I want to buy but so little $$$... I hate it when that happens! I need to sell something...errrr

[spikefader]

Dow futes swing long: was filled a little while ago at 10715. High expectations, but will stick to a 30 point stop.

[Runner]

Spike what is your take on MER?

crossed context line. volume a little weak

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

I realise this would be apure gamble play.but what do you think of AAPL crossing 55 by Friday?MFI looks strong,and Sept. $55 calls are at .05 last I looked.

BTW EENC major boom today in anticipation of dist. increase,could be a mover all week..

cordially Tom