Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

well I'll be gosh darn! I went and tried it and that's soooo cool!!!! Thanks Spike! You're the best!

Margie

Great. You're welcome.

Yes, I suspect a few people were thinking I was drawing the lines where I thought they should go. But no, I'm letting the program do it for me. So anyone can do the same thing and they'll be getting the same results as I do.

[IamOrion]

LCAV

Anyone jump on this from yesterday. I got some at 26.90 and 26.70. Selling all of it today for hopefully over a one point profit and will buy it back on any pullbacks....

Good luck to all

[kingofthehill]

SPike - ELN .. not for the faint of heart

yesterday traded as high as $25.90 ..today as low as $23.60


what do you see ??

[stt]

Spike,

While i agree that the channels are drawn by the software using some
pre-defined algorithm, still you have flexibility in terms of what points do you choose to start the channels. For example, if I choose to draw the channels in the pic below, I would not see the upper channel touch.

How do you decide where to start the channels. Do you do it from
the past high point. I see that you draw multiple channels. In that
case Which one is a better indicator.

Also is there a minimum channel length that should be used. For example, in this case, if I draw channel over last 3 days, I will see an up channel instead.

Thank you for your great insight.

[spikefader]

SPike - ELN .. not for the faint of heart

yesterday traded as high as $25.90 ..today as low as $23.60


what do you see ??

[spikefader]

...you have flexibility in terms of what points do you choose to start the channels...How do you decide where to start the channels. Do you do it from the past high point. I see that you draw multiple channels. In that case Which one is a better indicator.

Hey, good questions. Yes, always flexible about where to draw from, but I tend to draw them from high points and low points on the graph. Your red channel isn't really a point of any significance as far as high/low. I will use multiple channels to get an idea of how price is acting relative to those points. You can flick through the thread and see me mention channel turn ups and turn downs. I simply use those to give me some idea of how price is ignoring channels and will force it up or down. That gives me just another reason to be bearish or bullish on it. The bigger the channel, the more significant it is in my opinion. But channeling is certainly flexible and one needs practice to get the hang of them.

The fact is, even a pro charter isn't going to get anywhere near 100% accurate. Charts and channels are just tools. The real edge is your discipline with stops and how they relate to your targeting, and overall profitability over time. Personally, I like tight stops, and will let winners run unless I get a reverse signal, or hit a point of obvious resistence. Hope that's helpful.

[spikefader]

BEL while I think of it

Sorry for those still holding. BEL not looking good. Channel touch was the short spot....

[stt]

Thanks!

Hey, good questions. Yes, always flexible about where to draw from, but I tend to draw them from high points and low points on the graph. Your red channel isn't really a point of any significance as far as high/low. I will use multiple channels to get an idea of how price is acting relative to those points. You can flick through the thread and see me mention channel turn ups and turn downs. I simply use those to give me some idea of how price is ignoring channels and will force it up or down. That gives me just another reason to be bearish or bullish on it. The bigger the channel, the more significant it is in my opinion. But channeling is certainly flexible and one needs practice to get the hang of them.

The fact is, even a pro charter isn't going to get anywhere near 100% accurate. Charts and channels are just tools. The real edge is your discipline with stops and how they relate to your targeting, and overall profitability over time. Personally, I like tight stops, and will let winners run unless I get a reverse signal, or hit a point of obvious resistence. Hope that's helpful.

Yes, it does. I understand that charts reading is just another tool.
Anyway, I have learnt few things from your analysis in this thread.
It has definitely improved my entries. Thanks a lot.

BTW, Walmart (WMT) seems to have started an up trend. Looking for the right entry. What do you think?

[Massive]

Hi Spike,

A few days ago VLO jumped up greatly which looked promising. Now it looks like it's going thru a shakedown, and I'm wondering if you had comments about it. The rest of the oil & gas industry seemed like it was doing very well, and I think this is just a sign of profit taking. In the long run, VLO looks as if it's following a larger trend, but short-term it's on a pretty sharp takeback. Thoughts?

[spikefader]

Re: Thanks!

Anyway, I have learnt few things from your analysis in this thread.
It has definitely improved my entries. Thanks a lot.

BTW, Walmart (WMT) seems to have started an up trend. Looking for the right entry. What do you think?

Hey, that's great. You're welcome.

WMT, yes, I would look for a lower channel entry from that low of 51.50, but remember this: Over a 1 year chart, you can see the big channel from the Dec 03 low of 50.50 turned down a few days back. So be careful with a long that you do take. I'd keep stops tight and look for the perfect entry. Good luck with it.

[spikefader]

Hi Spike,

A few days ago VLO jumped up greatly which looked promising. Now it looks like it's going thru a shakedown, and I'm wondering if you had comments about it. The rest of the oil & gas industry seemed like it was doing very well, and I think this is just a sign of profit taking. In the long run, VLO looks as if it's following a larger trend, but short-term it's on a pretty sharp takeback. Thoughts?

Hi.
I remember saying a couple pages ago that I liked VLO while it stayed over 70. Looking at it today, it has just made a channel touch/breakdown and expanded that channel, so that's a bearish signal. The intraday chart has an inverted SHS, but it's steep. If one were looking for a channel long, today was the signal, and had one taken a long today based on that, I'd definately keep stops just under today's low, with a small target at the next downward channel touch from the recent high of 78.84.
But the fact is, the stock has had a very good strong run, and today could signal the time for profit taking. It could see a significant drop back to FIB levels looking for support. Thus, my suggestion on tight stops for a long today.

[spikefader]

ELN selling.

[New-born baby]

ELNaytraders dream come true

Spike

You're great, Spike. On July 20 you said ELN looking more bearish than bullish. On July 22 ELN jumps off the high dive. Wonderful! I just love the way you have been on both sides of the fence with this stock. Bearish--bullish--bearish again. You really know how to play this game! Thanks for the great analysis.

[IIC]

well I'll be gosh darn! I went and tried it and that's soooo cool!!!! Thanks Spike! You're the best!

Margie

HEY MARGIE...I thought I was the BEST

[spikefader]

....I took this short today at 27.60 (just above intraday pivot) and have a target of 20.00.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LSCP_short2.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/...hort_intra.jpg

Patiently holding with stop to even now