Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

The chart on TMWD has me baffled.It rose mid day to 3.70 range,then afterhours up to 4,then back down to 3.50,any ideas?
cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Mr. Spike,
Any comments on AUO? I wish (well) I should have bought WITS instead of AUO...
Regards,

Sorry to hear that Stocks! I take it you don't use stops, and didn't use the one I recommended at 12.26.......... (as per http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/...postcount=1071)
Stocks54! Ya gotta learn to love stops....they'll save yer capital when your trade is proven wrong.

Looking at the chart, you can see the failure, and then the pink channel short day that worked nicely. That was the point to hedge with some puts if you were gonna stay long shares. That way, you could take the put profits and use it to average in at the next channel long (which is today it seems).

As of today, longs have another shot at it, but it's a last stance before the channel rolls over.....that would be very bearish. There are gaps well under 10.00 and a huge SHS on a yearly chart. AUO could quite easily go to 5.00 if today's long setup fails.

If you don't have an emergency plan, think one up quick! Currently, the bias is long, while today's low holds. If today's channel long fails and you choose to keep the long position, I'd at least look to hedge your long with maybe April 2005 puts (closed at $1.10 today) until at least the chart strengthens again.

Good luck!

[stocks54]

Auo

Thanks Spike,

You are correct in that I don't use stops. I don't have any exit strategy for lot of my position. I have never dealt with puts.

Here is were I have questions. I am small investor so If I trade a lot due to being stoped out of position than I might not make any money out of my deal but then if the stocks goes down a lot (in case of AUO down 20 % or BEL) I tend to lose hard earned cash...

Any suggestions as to where and how should I go about learning options.

Regards,
Stocks...

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,

The chart on TMWD has me baffled.It rose mid day to 3.70 range,then afterhours up to 4,then back down to 3.50,any ideas?
cordially Tom

Wow, this one is moving quickly! Yup - I see last trade at 4.00, and bid/ask now 3.55x3.77. I don't see the 3.50 you mention. If I were long, I'd be tickled at the AH pop, but I'd seriously consider taking profits at 4.00, since that is channel resistance. Otherwise, stop to break even and let her ride, targeting the gap fill up at 7.50ish.

[spikefader]

Here's the chart for TMWD

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike,
You are correct in that I don't use stops. I don't have any exit strategy for lot of my position. I have never dealt with puts.

Here is were I have questions. I am small investor so If I trade a lot due to being stoped out of position than I might not make any money out of my deal but then if the stocks goes down a lot (in case of AUO down 20 % or BEL) I tend to lose hard earned cash...

Any suggestions as to where and how should I go about learning options.

Regards,
Stocks...

OK, may I strongly recommend that with your trading strategy, you incorporate an exit strategy. Have a plan, and then trade the plan.
Plan = entry based on logic, protective stop loss, and realistic projection target based on price resistence levels.

May I recommend http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/default.aspx for learning about options.

Buying Puts are a great way to hedge or go short with LIMITED amount of financial exposure. The most you can possibly lose is the amount you pay for the put. So for those AUO puts at $1.10, that means 1 put will cost you $110 (plus broker commission eg. $1 per contract each way with interactivebrokers.com). If your stock tanks badly, that $110 will increase nicely, thus offsetting the loss you experience in your open long position (assuming you buy the correct number of puts to equate your open long share number). Options are very tricky, and there's soooooo much to learn, but it's worth it if you're not employing stops, or hedging in any other way.

[stocks54]

Thanks

Spike,

Thanks for the pointer. I will read more about options and try to incorporate them in my trading.

Once again thanks for your help.

Regards,
Stocks.

[yaoyao]

Spike, what's your opinion on CDE and SIE now? I'd like to hold CDE for longer. It's a pretty safe play during this market. I sold my positions on SIE during its wild 8-point down day, but bought it back at lower price. It was up over 3 points today. Where do you see it go? Thanks.

[spikefader]

Spike, what's your opinion on CDE and SIE now? I'd like to hold CDE for longer. It's a pretty safe play during this market. I sold my positions on SIE during its wild 8-point down day, but bought it back at lower price. It was up over 3 points today. Where do you see it go? Thanks.

CDE bias is still long. Approaching resistances now. I thought about taking it long yesterday...but didn't like the gaps.
Today's pivot is 5.02. I think I'll wait until 4.70ish if it gets back there.

[spikefader]

And SIE, I'm bullish on now. channel turn up today with a long term channel long recently. Pivot 46.41 today. Might be worth a shot there.

[spikefader]

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8371&postcount=1235

Delta remains bearish, added QQQ short 36.60. Stop over HOD.

[spikefader]

QQQ - I'll move my stop slightly up to 36.80 - above the recent high on the daily. That makes more sense to me.

Vector still bearish, but what an impressively bullish parabolic move this a.m! Well, the plan is made, now all I can do is follow it.

[kingofthehill]

Eln ..............

[spikefader]

Eln ..............

Nicely pushed up through resistence, although I must say, the volume is not inspiring yet. But just the same, channel turn up from that recent high, so green light to chase it for me. Now, just a matter of entry point.....pivot, S1, closing price today, or pattern......

[kingofthehill]

VOL. is now 6.7 million ..what do you see as a good close ?