Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
Your take on TMWD today?Possible long entry?

Entered DHB somemore today in my IRA,looking for the upper channel,it was blurry on my laptop,what price target would you give it?

cordially Tom

[Websman]

BWAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

This is insane!!!

When will SIRI quit climbing???

What will I do with all this new found wealth???

Jeez...Now I'll have a bunch of tax problems. I'll have to get an account in the Caymans or Switzerland.

Congats on DHB guys. I wish I would have stayed in with you!

[abk33139]

At one point, I was up over 22% of my original investment in SIRI (which includes the $15 to purchase the stock). I ended the day at 16.59%. One can only hope the trend continues. I'm sure folks that got in way before I did are seeing big profit percentages.

Thanks for all the great advice.

Thank you,
Alison

[New-born baby]

Thomrich & his Cans

Thomrich,

Hey, are you still daytrading the Canroys? I ask because I'd like to know which ones you trade (symbols), what your strategy is, and what kind of entry/exit strategy you use. Any info you care to give me would be appreciated.

[Thomrich]

Newborn,

I never day traded them,more like week or month trade.

When oil was steady or creeping up, I would buy after the distribution sell off,hold till the distribution date,and usually sell before capturing it.On PWI .23 monthly dist.
a .50 delta was fairly easy to get.

Since oils been falling Im on the sidelines for now.End of year final distribution is coming up for all canroys,could be very interesting this year,as oil hedges are expiring,most were around $30 a brl.

One obstacle is my brokerage firm has stopped allowing some canroys to be traded,which limits my ability.They havent been able to give me a reason as to why?
Looking to change brokerage firm soon.

As far as favs. PGH,PWI,PVX,EENC were the ones I used.If you are in Canada its much better ,as theres alot more traded on the TSX.Also Canadas looking to limit foreign ownership to some extent,so its better if your in the country for sure.

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
Someone on DHBs board pointed to VWKS,have never seen a pattern break like this.
Gap up -flat -gap up,

suggest anyhting to you
cordially,and sorry for picking your brain,
Tom

[New-born baby]

Thomrich & Swing Trading the Cans

Thomrich,

Suggestion for brokerage firms: Scottrade allows you to trade on the TSX--anything you want. $17 per trade is the only kicker.

There are many more options on the TSX. Yes, the limit for out of country ownership is January 1 2007. Even then, they will allow ownership up to 50% of the company! No Can is in trouble that I am aware of. EEE (Espirit) A shares are for Americans. 100% of A shares can be American owned.

I would like to request that you give me a heads up on your next "swing Trade" plan with the Cans. I might jump in with you.

Thanks!

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
Your take on TMWD today?Possible long entry?

Entered DHB somemore today in my IRA,looking for the upper channel,it was blurry on my laptop,what price target would you give it?

cordially Tom

Oops, sorry about the late response.... have been distracted! TMWD yesterday, in hindsight, if you had gone for an attempted double bottom entry at 3.67 would have seen it not hold, and some breath-holding overnight, and you'd still have the position open today. Today's pattern shows support at the double bottom at 3.65, and price now at 3.70, which is still attractive. I'm holding my position long from 3.43 and hoping that 15% up I saw doesn't dwindle to 0%

On DHB: Surprised to see you added some more - especially with that little upper channel touch the other day. The bigger channel I posted is about $30.00ish, so it's a nice target, but the conservative side of me fears that channel touch warns profit taking is not out of the question.....

[spikefader]

When will SIRI quit climbing???

when the fat lady sings of course

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
Someone on DHBs board pointed to VWKS,have never seen a pattern break like this.
Gap up -flat -gap up,
suggest anyhting to you
cordially,and sorry for picking your brain,
Tom

No problem! Ya, looks like it hit its head on the channel. Might be forming a bullflag of sorts? Look what happened in June after a big volume day - sold off. But one to watch.

[spikefader]

New System using Mr.Market portfolio only

Well people, as you may have read already the discussion over in Karel's thread entitled 'stops are for wimps' got me thinking about a swing system based on Mr. Market's picks - for anyone not diversifying as he does, who might be looking for great entries, and a small and limited amount of downside risk for each trade.

My inital thoughts are to wait for an intraday S2 for entry, and target R2 (whether it takes one day or several) and a low risk stop of 2 x (S1-S2), a mathmatically formula to create consistency and remove emotional discretion.

My initial guestimates are that risk should average below 2%, and targets should average above 4%, which ain't the best ratio, but hopefully the edge that leads to profitability will be the fact that they are Mr. Market picks!!

Obviously it's an experiment, but should be an interesting one for readers to follow. I will track every single one of Mr.Market's open positions, and whenever there is an S2 entry, I'll post it along with a chart, and hopefully we can watch support entries and resistance exits on Mr.Market's wonderful picks make some profits!

And guess what?! The first opportunity to trade this system took place today with SSNC. Here's the chart. Entry 22.56. Tomorrow's R2 is 23.50 and stop is 22.22. Potential profit is 3.77%, and risk is 1.5%. Only a 1:2.5 r/r ratio, but that may improve if the price meanders up over a couple days. We shall see.

[Websman]

I think you're on to something Spike. I'm looking forward to see what happens!

[New-born baby]

Jwn

Spike,

Was considering taking a shot at this one Wednesday at 9 a.m. CST, but brokeout and I left it alone today. After initial hit this morning, it eased back. What's your opinion for tomorrow?

Thanks as always!

[spikefader]

Spike,

Was considering taking a shot at this one Wednesday at 9 a.m. CST, but brokeout and I left it alone today. After initial hit this morning, it eased back. What's your opinion for tomorrow?

Thanks as always!

Red channel short today is a warning. Might pay to wait for that to turn up first....
The best entry was way back when....

[New-born baby]

Jwn

Spike,

Thank you for the warning. I greatly appreciate it.