Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
Ive been playing with the annotated charts at stockcharts and am trying to get a feel for time frame perspective.ZICA is a good example,I have no idea where to reference the channels as the price has been all over lately.

I really appreciate the info on inside days,is there an indicator as to how the price will break?I know you mentioned DHBs bearish setup,what was the tip off?I will look to exit on any downward trend,as they appear to be swift with inside days,possible gap fill predictor?

cordially Tom

[MEA_1956]

Average

Good Day Mate;; As I set her tonight and stroke my cat and ponder all the post that I'm in the process of catching up on: I develope another one of then inquisitve ?????.

On an average day of trading how many positions do you have open.
Of these, on a very rough average, would you say are long,(four weeks+).
Of these, on a very rough average, would you say are swing trades.
Of these, on a very rough average, would you say are day trades.

It has already been stated all your trades include stops. So of these trades, on a rough average, do you advance to the finial stage of your investment plan.

Of these, on a very rough average, what is your % of gain.

Please don't look at these ?????? as inflammatory, just trying to grasp the thought process beheind this style of trading. Searching for the Feel, Vibes or the Mo Jo of using stops. If there is a larger reward to be at hand in this style of investing I would be interestade in a twiking my current methodology.

Just one small request, if you would please, post a Stockchart of that wounderful Company Schnitzer Steel and please include your personal outlook. As of close on Friday the Howling Port and my personal port are up 32.84% with anticipation of futher growth since the one year EST. is still a long way out. Is their still a bright furture in SCHN or should I be looking for an exit of this pick.
Let me say it, A One Year EST.achievement, is an overly optimistic goal to be set for a stock in this type of trading now days.

Thanks in advance, ====> M.E.A. The Optimistic Value Trader.

ps tonight we don't have a spider on our screen it's a Nebraska Lady Bug.

[MEA_1956]

Pog

Played with the Stockchart site awhile earlier tonight trying to gain a feel of using the annotate tool. Set my first channel off its low on 8-26-07 of $24.76. Set a second channel off its high on 10-7-04 of $32.18. As the rookie that I'm and the lack of knowledg that I posess Do you think POG has a chance to carry on up into the new high arena, or am I heavy with optimisim. ===> M.E.A.

[spikefader]

I havent been trading DHB , but for educational purposes , I am curious to know whether todays close above yesterdays high is a positive reversal in the land of candles ? Thanks

Thanks for analysis on MIND earlier. I'm holding out for more correction on this and HURC.

Well, there is a channel turn up as of Friday's close, so as long as it stays above 18.35 I'm bullish on DHB. But if 18.35 breaks down, I'd be getting out.

[spikefader]

Greetings,
Im in DHB,and have done fairly well this last week.Was surprised to see the warning from Spike today.
It was up today,on a bad day for the market,which I didnt expect.It is supposed to move up on IBDs list from #9 to possibly #2.
What would it take to eliminate the double inside flag?Is this a prelude to a gap fill?
Another thing that troubles me is short interest increased by 1milllion shares recently.
Do they know something?
Ill be watching the open monday very careful.the whole market looks like its ready to get hammered.
BTW options expired today,and it held up.
cordially Tom

Don't get me wrong, I'm liking the price action of DHB. The warning is just a heads up. A double inside day break down will be bad for the stock, which could lead to a fast move, so I thought I'd post the chart with the explanation. I think it could take off tommorrow and run up several more points over the next few weeks, but just be cautious if 18.35 and 18.10 break is all. Yes, I think it's a prelude to a gap fill, and you don't want to mess with that.

[spikefader]

$200 per share or 2009, whichever comes first.

You serious!? lol

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
Ive been playing with the annotated charts at stockcharts and am trying to get a feel for time frame perspective.ZICA is a good example,I have no idea where to reference the channels as the price has been all over lately.

I really appreciate the info on inside days,is there an indicator as to how the price will break?I know you mentioned DHBs bearish setup,what was the tip off?I will look to exit on any downward trend,as they appear to be swift with inside days,possible gap fill predictor?

cordially Tom

This was the last ZICA chart I posted: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v1...g/ZICAOct8.jpg which you can see accurately predicted the resistance and the selloff. That chart also suggests long at 3.00 would be good, since that's roughly 50% retrace of the move. Look at the charts now, I've attached weekly and daily, and I'd be waiting for blue channel long or gap fill long.
(You're welcome on the info for DHB. No tip off, just happened to be looking for double inside days and spotted on with DHB - just coincidence.)

[spikefader]

Oh, and on channels, as to where to place them, there is no hard rule. Draw them anywhere they look like they belongs, like recent highs or lows. The bigger the channel, the more significant it is.

An important thing to remember with channel touches is what the channel does on that day. Does it expand violently, and if it does it is telling you that the channel was violated and that a continuation of the move could follow (whether immediately or after a bounce away from it). I take a channel expansion as a warning, and if it came against one of my open positions, I would look to exit over the next week, hopefully at a logical channel touch. If that didn't occur, I'd either exit immediately on a channel rollover against my direction and not wait longer, or I'd set a stop tucked under the nearest logical price support.

If price hits a lower channel and bounces immediately and doesn't expand the channel, then that's bullish behaviour. The converse applies to upper channels.

[spikefader]

Good Day Mate;; As I set her tonight and stroke my cat and ponder all the post that I'm in the process of catching up on: I develope another one of then inquisitve ?????.

On an average day of trading how many positions do you have open.
Of these, on a very rough average, would you say are long,(four weeks+).
Of these, on a very rough average, would you say are swing trades.
Of these, on a very rough average, would you say are day trades.

It has already been stated all your trades include stops. So of these trades, on a rough average, do you advance to the finial stage of your investment plan.

Of these, on a very rough average, what is your % of gain.

Please don't look at these ?????? as inflammatory, just trying to grasp the thought process beheind this style of trading. Searching for the Feel, Vibes or the Mo Jo of using stops. If there is a larger reward to be at hand in this style of investing I would be interestade in a twiking my current methodology.

Just one small request, if you would please, post a Stockchart of that wounderful Company Schnitzer Steel and please include your personal outlook. As of close on Friday the Howling Port and my personal port are up 32.84% with anticipation of futher growth since the one year EST. is still a long way out. Is their still a bright furture in SCHN or should I be looking for an exit of this pick.
Let me say it, A One Year EST.achievement, is an overly optimistic goal to be set for a stock in this type of trading now days.

Thanks in advance, ====> M.E.A. The Optimistic Value Trader.

ps tonight we don't have a spider on our screen it's a Nebraska Lady Bug.

Mea, I dunt see yer quustiuns as iflumutoray. No purblum hera, altho I do avoyd diskussing detayls of posyshun syze and pursinal prophet los stats. But don't look to this thred as a complete refluction of whot I ac2ually do trayding wise. LOL Boy, it's hard to spell as bad as you do! ~jking~

Seriously, I might average a half dozen swing trades that might last from seconds (when stopped out quickly) to weeks; some shares, some options, and then daytrades anywhere from none to half dozen stocks, although I'm daytrading stocks a whole lot less and eminis futes a whole lot more. I much prefer daytrading futures like es nq and ym, and if you've ever traded them you'll know they're addictive and time consuming. I used to system trade up to 180 round trips scalps in one day believe it or not, but that madness didn't last long. It was exhausting and commissions were ridiculous, and a bad day would be real BAD, you'd be down 800 bucks commish, plus whatever other losses you had. These days I average a whole lot less....probably 15 emini round trips a day and it's a much better way to trade - more profitable, more relaxing, allowing more time for thinking about other stuff, like swing trades, forum surfing etc.

But to attempt to answer your questions on averages and percentages, I guess my swing stock winners averages over 25% while my risk percentage averages under 2%, so obviously I get stopped out enough to frustrate the emotions but not enough to threaten long-term profitability. As I always assert, being disciplined with stops and targets is what makes long-term profitability possible.

When you say "the thought process behind this style of trading', let me stress this thread is merely a place to talk about one small part of what I'm doing. The whole point of starting this thread was NOT to attempt to keep a personal journal of a system, but to encourage this wonderful FA rich/but TA dead forum to think about TA to help their entries and exits, not to try and push one particular method and insist that if followed it is going to give you X amount of profit, with a Y% win loss ratio.

What I've tried to do in the thread is post some of my own trades and plenty of charts showing what to look for in price behavior to help entries, and to reflect the importance of discipline regarding stops and targets. I've tried to mix it up, and thrown in some option trades to show how you can profit from buying puts during stock strength and then selling them when the premium is bid up as price drops. Sure, the thread DOES reflect a style of trading, and I'm sure if you've read all of it you'll have gotten a good grasp of that style and the way you might have to endure a bunch of tight stop outs and be real patient before you hit a target that makes up for those stops then some. While I'm sure many would be interested in my own specific percentages, I don't think that knowledge is going to be helpful in justifying whether or not you or anyone else should employ any or all of the methods discussed in this thread. What would be better to help you decide is to paper trade any tweaks you do. Only when you have proven that it's going to work for you should you even consider changing your own system, one that as you describe is currently nicely profitable.

On SCHN, I've got a bullish bias on it, but it's near resistance. Once it gets over 35.79, it'll be above that red short day on the chart, and headed for highs over 42.53 and towards an upper channel somewhere. Until then, it's near resistance But it does have a channel long week on the weekly to give it a reason to go up The passage of time will tell. Good luck with it.

[spikefader]

Cubemap 5

Time for a QQQs short again
Daily Vector closed bearish on Friday. The weekly QQQ chart shows a channel short (see red arrow), and so I'll be looking to short the Qs tomorrow.
Good trading this week folks!

[scifos]

Vlo

Hi Spike, I've been trying out some of the stuff at stockcharts, trying to emulate the charts you make for analysis. I worked up this and was hoping for some pointers on my analysis.

Blue channel is from an old high, Purple from a recent low, and the green is from a recent high. I see channel touches at the three red arrows. It seemed to want to stay in the upper purple channel until the start of november. Its now slightly back into the upper purple and touching the top of the green. Assuming I did this right, I see it has failed to break out of the upper purple once, and got close to breaking above the upper green once before retreating, now that its on the cusp of moving above the green and solidly back into the upper purple, should I wait and see if it breaks through this time or does the previous touches say it won't go higher (especially with the market outlook being bearish for the near future)?

[spikefader]

Hi Spike, I've been trying out some of the stuff at stockcharts, trying to emulate the charts you make for analysis. I worked up this and was hoping for some pointers on my analysis.

Blue channel is from an old high, Purple from a recent low, and the green is from a recent high. I see channel touches at the three red arrows. It seemed to want to stay in the upper purple channel until the start of november. Its now slightly back into the upper purple and touching the top of the green. Assuming I did this right, I see it has failed to break out of the upper purple once, and got close to breaking above the upper green once before retreating, now that its on the cusp of moving above the green and solidly back into the upper purple, should I wait and see if it breaks through this time or does the previous touches say it won't go higher (especially with the market outlook being bearish for the near future)?

Hey, nice chart work!

Here's my chart below. I think a better way to look at it is not to expect a break through as you put it, but to respect that green channel touch for what it is - resistance. Resistance is the place to sell and not buy.
For an entry long, what you should wait for one of two things.
The first is conservative play - another one of those lower channel touches, which is support, and buy there. See the pink, blue and gray arrows in my chart. That is the type of channel long day I usually look for. Draw the channel from the recent lows, and wait for the lower channel touch.

The other way I use channels (the more aggressive way) is for a channel turn up, and to go long the very next day. See my post here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/...postcount=1467 for the call after the channel turnup I've pointed in blue in the below chart. See how the turn up on volume led to an 8 point rally? Channel turn ups can be both great entries long and warnings to short positions. See my chart VLO Nov22a for logic around the channel turn up entry on Friday.

[spikefader]

... or does the previous touches say it won't go higher (especially with the market outlook being bearish for the near future)?

Previous touches don't rule the roost and dominate in all cases. There is a potential for price to react to a channel touch, but it occurs often enough that price ignores such touches and steamrolls whereever the market wants to go. So no, the channel touches don't say it won't go highter, it's just a warning that there might be profit taking.
But considering the potential for some general market weakness (which also may get ignored and the bull continue to suprise) it may be wise to respect that potential and to wait for the conservative entry and not the aggressive one. See, there is no easy answer. The only thing you can do is make a good plan, with good risk reward, and execute according to that plan.
Personally, with VLO, considering the channel touch, my bearish outlook short-term, and the somewhat bearish looking candle on Friday for VLO, I would be conservative with my entry.
Hope that helps.

[Thomrich]

greetings,and pardon the naivete of this,
Does anyone have any opinions or experience with "Wizetrade"?

Its supposed to be able to gauge buying and selling pressure,and they were using BLUD as an example of a past pick.

Huckster or real deal?

cordially Tom
btw DHB up do far this morning on high volume,we'll see if it carries through.
Im targeting 21.50,wish me luck.

[spikefader]

I haven't but Turtletrader is a skeptic http://www.turtletrader.com/wizetrade.html since they don't use money management and it's 'black box' trading that they feel has a tendancy to implode

Good luck with DHB! Moving nicely.