Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

QQQ daily. Short setup. Look for intraday reason to enter. Today's R2 was the perfect place.

[spikefader]

OFG:
Channels yet again demonstrate their power.

[spikefader]

A New Thread Feature:

Quote of the week:
"The professional concerns himself with doing the right thing rather than with making money, knowing that the profit takes care of itself if the other things are attended to. A trader gets to play the game as the professional billiard player does--that is, he looks far ahead instead of considering the particular shot before him. It gets to be an instinct to play for position".
Jesse Livermore, "REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR"

http://charts.dacharts.com/2004-11-05/jesse_livermore.html

[Websman]

A hearty congrats Websman. Profit is good, and that's a healthy percentage

I think the high volume at those gaps still gives them a chance to be runaways, but we shall see. I'll be looking to enter around 14, where there's good volume by price support and the recent gap support.

Sounds like a good plan Spike! I may set a limit order for $14.01 and see if it gets filled this week. I wouldn't mind making a little more $$$ on DHB!

[Thomrich]

Thanks for the heads up Spike,

Concerning DHB,it made #44 this IBD 100,earnings on tuesday,and supposed looming 540mil. contract for body armor.That said,I think it will fill the gap at 14.

My thought is I should hold unless complete breakdown,trying to buy and sell with that much variable is a recipe for disaster with my emotion driven trigger finger.

Fear is whats killed me this week,either fear of missing a runup,or fear of holding a falling sword.Both WHT and DHB were good swings,I wound up on the wrong end of them.

Any advice Spike on controlling the fear factor other than heavy doses of narcotics?

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=dhb,uu[m,a]waclyyay[dd][ph.02,.20!c15][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

Greetings Spike,your opinions on this chart parameters?
Seems to be a poor mans version of spotting trends.

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Sorry for the dead link.The parameters are 1year timeline ,weekly pricing, with parabolic as trend indicator.

Seems to show similar trend as channels,as I have a hard time knowing wheer to place the trendline,and upper and lower variance.

cordially Tom

[Websman]

Thanks for the heads up Spike,


Any advice Spike on controlling the fear factor other than heavy doses of narcotics?

cordially Tom

If you don't want to use narcotics, beer makes a fine alternative.

Webs

[IIC]

Thom...I don't have the answer for the FEAR FACTOR...but I will tell you...if you fear too much, it is a killer. I know that I will have losses...And when I do I pound the desk and say ^&*(*^...but it takes me about 60 seconds to say to myself...I won't do that again...but obviously I do...But I never let losses get to me for more than 1 minute.

My trading seems to run in streaks...up and down...so when I feel that I'm in a down streak, I just cash out and wait till I feel right...In the past, it has been months sometimes...even though I still follow the mkts during those times...IIC

[spikefader]

Thanks for the heads up Spike,

Concerning DHB,it made #44 this IBD 100,earnings on tuesday,and supposed looming 540mil. contract for body armor.That said,I think it will fill the gap at 14.

My thought is I should hold unless complete breakdown,trying to buy and sell with that much variable is a recipe for disaster with my emotion driven trigger finger.

Fear is whats killed me this week,either fear of missing a runup,or fear of holding a falling sword.Both WHT and DHB were good swings,I wound up on the wrong end of them.

Any advice Spike on controlling the fear factor other than heavy doses of narcotics?

cordially Tom

narcotics! Ya, that would be fun. Yipdeedoooooooooooo no matter which way the stock went! lol

Fear is definately a killer. How to control it........a great question. The way I see it, one must completely detatch from it and refuse to let it in at all. Ya, easy to say, but how!!!

There seems no magic answer to it.......or wait......maybe there is some deep mystical answer..........

Perhaps the solution is in being perfectly disciplined. Starting with forming a complete entry/exit PLAN (including stop loss) for a particular trade, making the plan fit inside a model of sensible money management/risk reward. Then being disciplined enough to automatically stick to the plan, no matter WHAT, and smile no matter what the result. To actually smile at taking a loss....not easy, but the reward to smile about is that you've stuck to the discipline.

Pride and a back-slap for our wonderful discipline should be our reward, not the money from a successful trade.

So give yourself a back-slap for taking that WHT stop out! You're a LEGEND! That thing could have fallen to zero! And you took the hit and lived! What a guy. Inspirational stuff! Don't look at the chart with regret that you missed the run and got shook out. That's nonsense! You won my friend. You beat the market! You overcame and you rose to the occasion. Had you not taken the hit, sure you'd have money, but you'd be a FAILURE!!!!!

A professional concerns himself with doing what is RIGHT and not with making MONEY (as quoted earlier in the thread). When you look after THAT, money will follow!

Perhaps it is only by completely rearranging how we think about what trading is we can come close to controlling fear. Rearranging our human perception away from the belief that money made on EVERY trade is essential to prove success, and that any losses are bad.

Perhaps changing this perception to one that highlights the magnificant worth and value of outstanding discipline is the key. One that makes us firmly convinced that breaking the plan in any way whatsoever is bad, and the ultimate proof of our worthlessness as a trader.

If we can convince ourselves and believe that success is all about being perfectly disciplined.......as perfect as the best Samurai Warrier ever there was, then we're on our way to controlling fear, to perhaps eliminating it from our psychie.

I think a lot can be learnt from pondering the Serenity Prayer, which goes:
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;
the courage to change the things I can; and the wisdom to know the difference.

Relating those thoughts to trading......
God, grant me the serentity to happily accept all my stop losses;
the courage to change how I feel about failure and discipline,
and the wisdom to know the difference between being stopped out and being a failure.

[MEA_1956]

Fear Factor

I, myself, just use a lower level of entry to help calm my fears. you can always enter more at a later date.===> MEA

[Thomrich]

Thanks Webs and IIC,
That whole streak thing is definitely real,just like a sports player.Jordan would say he was in a rythym,and everything would fall in.

In october I could do no wrong,now every trade so far this month has started out bad and gotten worse.I guess its time to stop digging the hole deeper,and take a break.

cordially Tom
BTW webs,Im a VODKA man,will that do the trick? :]

[Thomrich]

Thanks everyone,
I love this board ,as its what Stevie Ray Vaughn would have called "Real People"Not a bunch of fakes or aliases trying to pump or dump on others.

I turn 40 next week,so Im gonna go out and party llike a rock star tonight,last weekend before I start "getting serious".

cordially Tom

[Websman]

Thanks everyone,
I love this board ,as its what Stevie Ray Vaughn would have called "Real People"Not a bunch of fakes or aliases trying to pump or dump on others.

I turn 40 next week,so Im gonna go out and party llike a rock star tonight,last weekend before I start "getting serious".

cordially Tom

Let me know how 40 is...I'll be there next year.

[Thomrich]

Greetings

What I find interesting is the same securities I owned during the same exact time period could have returned 180degree results.All 3,TMWD,WHT,DHB, were either losers or winners this week depending on when you were in or out.

This is my goal for the week is figuring out how to be on the + side.

As an example,DHB,I bought in chasing on friday at 15.95,as of monday with IBD listing at 44 over the weekend can buy in monday at 15.30ish.Mondays buyer has a .65 advantage over me no matter what the stock does.

There must be a lesson to be learned,first NEVER place a market order,No stock is worth an unknown price of purchase.

Please add to my list of "never deviate from" philosophy.

cordially to my good friends Tom,still 39!