Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Runner]

Spike great call on the Q's....

[dmk112]

lol your neckwound obviously not too deep there! Off with his head! lol

Seriously though, a short squeeze is when a large number of short sellers try to cover their positions at the same time and in a panic. That's not what I see in the price action from the beige book at 1pm. It was merely impressive buying by the clever people You'll join in eventually haha.

LOL we'll see about that...The NAZ would have to get over 2100 for me to get excited...

[spikefader]

Thnx runner.

dmk, 2100? But I though you were a moving average man. Does this not excite you?



hehe just teasin'! I dunno how long this will last. Might just be a fake out. But I'm ridin' it with reckless abandon tonight! hehe Might just get gap up in the morning. That'll set up nicely for a gapncrud move we see all too often. But V has me long, I got a very nice Dow entry today, and I'm happy to hold it for another 200 points. Best to all you bears....you take care now.....

[spikefader]

[dmk112]

Spike, true it is above...But 2100 is the test. Once above I am with you.

But for now... I'm still a bear waiting for more

[spikefader]

Spike, true it is above...But 2100 is the test. Once above I am with you.

But for now... I'm still a bear waiting for more

LMBO! That's a good one. Gave me a good chuckle.

Yep, that is a resistance line for sure. But there's the pattern to fuel the bust!



And here is what I'm seeing:

[dmk112]

Haha... Another bull!!?? haha...

But Spike, to your SHS - wasn't the neckline already broken in June and it has came back down and failed to bounce off of it, therefore, doesn't that invalidate the pattern??

[ForeverInvesting]

All of the artwork is very funny. Keep the laughs comming. I am bullish now so I am rooting for the bull. Go Bull!!!!!

[diogenes]

Oh no; not clutter at all. It's worth beating to death until we 'get it'.

I'm having trouble understanding your first paragraph - perhaps too many late nights hehe but you're saying my post "overlooks the accuracy of claims for a link between a system's model and what it is supposed to model. Any supposed link is offset by the 50% pure luck rate". OK, now I've reworded it I think I'm getting there.

So are you saying what I said is one thing, but the point is that the real performance of a model can't truly be assessed because it benefits from 50:50 luck?

Thanks for the contributions.

I think what you had in mind with that statement is what I was getting at, but the model can be assessed since it is reducible to the coin flip of increase/decrease in price.

[spikefader]

Haha... Another bull!!?? haha...

But Spike, to your SHS - wasn't the neckline already broken in June and it has came back down and failed to bounce off of it, therefore, doesn't that invalidate the pattern??

hehe

The way I trade SHS's is the pattern is this way: The pattern is valid until the head gets taken out. I may put a stop above the shoulder but that's only because of r/r management, and movement above the R shoulder still doesn't invalidate the pattern, let alone the neckline not resisting as you suggest.

If I ponder that a bit more, what is a SHS pattern anyway?? Well, it's a reversal pattern. And a reversal of trend is only proven while the very top of the trend is shown to be 'in', i.e. the tip of the head. The neckline isn't the test; the head is.

And I have just flipped the chart upside down and horizontally to get an idea of how it looks, and I firmly think the SHS pattern in this case is still valid.

Now, there are different schools of thought on SHS's. Purists like Edwards and Magee like to see volume declining for each phase of the SHS. Others might believe they are only valid over a long time frame as longer term trend reversals, and that the pattern is overused. Me? I humbly think that the SHS is a wonderful pattern that plays out well from tic charts to line charts to 1 minute charts - all the way up to monthly charts. I don't need to see the volume there to justify trading one, volume isn't an essential ingredient in my setups. And if anyone in the world thinks a SHS is invalid because the neckline didn't hold as resistance, I'll tell 'em I think they are wrong. The proof of a reversal is the fact that price doesn't go back over the head. As long as that is in place there is no evidence to say that the original trend has any further strength in it. As such it is either a flat rangebound trend or a full reversal against the trend. Either way as long as price action doesn't take out your stop then your trade is working and should be allowed to continue and given every chance to succeed, unless of course other signals occur.

[IIC]

I agree with dmk...2100 area is the test...Now many are excited...I'm not at this point....There is nothing to get excited about except for DT's IMO.

BTW...Today was the 18th Anniversay of BLACK MONDAY...FWIW...IIC

[New-born baby]

Short

Spike,
Shall we short CIB?

[New-born baby]

The Head and Shoulders

Here's another way to look at that chart:

[spikefader]

Spike,
Shall we short CIB?

Well that is a bullish broadening triangle forming there. No channel short yet. I'd pass on this one. But yes, it is resistance that people sell....but there's a pattern there to support a long case - money flow has been ok too (weekly MF is even better). There are better shorts out there I think.

[spikefader]

Here's another way to look at that chart:

My thoughts on yours. I think you are giving yourself a little too much poetic license.