Portfolio of the Week

[IIC]

Rob...I think you missed Alice's FNSR

Please start me in cash...thx...Doug(IIC)

[Karel]

I've made most of my huge profits on low volume stocks under $10. I even like OTC's.

No problem there, but the problem is the competition. To win, you need an extraordinary gain. If you pick a penny stock, you get the extraordinariness ipso facto, not because of excellent timing or whatever. This point has been made before. I don't care very much myself, as I am playing this with my fingers up my nose, but every time I see a low priced stock slide 20% or more, I know I can chalk up another winner for the Mechanical Fund, now 13-3 vs the POTW.

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

What's the big deal with playing a week or two or occassionally with all picks having to be above $10 or $15. It would be interesting to see the results. Probably 90 % of everyone playing doesn't own their picks anyway.

[New-born baby]

Yes

What's the big deal with playing a week or two or occassionally with all picks having to be above $10 or $15. It would be interesting to see the results. Probably 90 % of everyone playing doesn't own their picks anyway.

Ski,
I agree. Take a $2 stock, get a .05 move, and viola!, you won POTW. But the commision, via IB, would take .02 of that away in real life. I would like POTW to be as realistic as possible. I really think that the winner ought to be based not on percentage gained, but on total dollars gained. After all, isn't it all about dead presidents anyway?

[Websman]

What's the big deal with playing a week or two or occassionally with all picks having to be above $10 or $15. It would be interesting to see the results. Probably 90 % of everyone playing doesn't own their picks anyway.

Sounds good to me. This could give me the chance to prove that my VTP is superior, regardless of the type of stock I chose.

[spikefader]

You're right, Spike, I do like it! I like that you seem to see good technical reasons to like IMCL's possibilities, although I must admit I don't understand the "falling wedge" pattern or why it might be perceived as bullish. Of the few technical indicators I do understand, I like the fact the 50-day EMA recently crossed above the 200-day EMA to perhaps signal an imminent end to this year-long base. I primarily like the stock for fundamental reasons though, including the fact that the company appears to be entertaining buy-out prospects. I also see Erbitux taking some of Avastin's market share in first-line colorectal cancer treatment in the near future, in addition to the fact that Erbitux has just been approved for use in cancers of the head & neck, for which sales of $400 million per year are projected. They've also got numerous phase three trials in other important indications, some for which the results are due out the second half of this year.

These are some of the reasons I like it.

Thnx for the info. Falling wedges are traditionally considered a reversal pattern. I know that's only a 4 day wedge, and not particularly obvious at first glance, but many times intraday or multiday moves show a pattern that the daily doesn't, and they can be really effective patterns. I really liked the fact that it's forming that wedge near channel/trendline support, where there is really solid volume that is apparently moneyflow going into it. I like the weekly volume by price under it and the way it recently held gap support from June '03. Definately worth supporting that lower wedge line with a tight stop tomorrow I think. In my view, I would become neutral/bearish long-term if 28.26 fails. I know that's a good 23% lower than current prices, but there's the line in the sand for me. If 28.26 fails I think it's at risk of falling to 8.00. But for now, stalk 'em long!

Good luck.

[The Photon]

Potw

JDSU long -

[skiracer]

Thnx for the info. Falling wedges are traditionally considered a reversal pattern. I know that's only a 4 day wedge, and not particularly obvious at first glance, but many times intraday or multiday moves show a pattern that the daily doesn't, and they can be really effective patterns. I really liked the fact that it's forming that wedge near channel/trendline support, where there is really solid volume that is apparently moneyflow going into it. I like the weekly volume by price under it and the way it recently held gap support from June '03. Definately worth supporting that lower wedge line with a tight stop tomorrow I think. In my view, I would become neutral/bearish long-term if 28.26 fails. I know that's a good 23% lower than current prices, but there's the line in the sand for me. If 28.26 fails I think it's at risk of falling to 8.00. But for now, stalk 'em long!

Good luck.

Bit of a stretch on that falling wedge. Bulkowski states that they should be in that continuation pattern for a minimum of 3 weeks. That throws a whole different slant on the play as far short term outlook is concerned.

[alice4321us]

Don't forget my pick

Rob...I think you missed Alice's FNSR

Please start me in cash...thx...Doug(IIC)

ROB please make a note of my pick.

Thanks

[Websman]

Rob, I've changed my mind. I don't want to go with AMKR afterall.

This week, I want to take ELN long. This should be an exciting week for this stock. I will either lose or win big. Trading will be halted on Tues and Wed.

ELN...Watch this little monkey go. jejejejejejejejeje

[SledDawg]

I'll stay with URI short this week.

Congrats to TFred for hitting it out of the park!

[spikefader]

Bit of a stretch on that falling wedge. Bulkowski states that they should be in that continuation pattern for a minimum of 3 weeks. That throws a whole different slant on the play as far short term outlook is concerned.

Ski, fair nuf ...... I'll let you call it a pennant then lol But check the chart below which is clearer.

But I'll point out that Bulkowski is clearly talking about daily falling wedges, and he says if it's not over 3 weeks in his opinion it's a pennant...and that's fair enough.

But I'd really think that pattern in IMCL is more wedge-like over a pennant, because I like my pennants to have a more impressive pole and to stay higher and tighter than IMCL is doing. So in my book it's a declining wedge on a hourly chart over 4 days....which I did kind of talk about in that post.

But anyway, everyone can give it the weight they like. Frankly I don't reference wedges very often cuz I like other things for my stalking, and I guess when I read Rob's pick I wanted to give it a chance to show me what bullishness it had about it so I can pump it up for him and give him some joy since he's spoiling us all so much with his fantastic coverage of POTW. Frankly, if it weren't for that I probably wouldn't even have looked at IMCL as a serious long. But ya have to respect the fact that IMCL gave a solid bounce a that major gap support, and it's got a brilliant chance to pop.

I still like really like that 2.65% risk setup I posted on my blog, long 36.16 at the lower wedge line to target best medium term (by year end perhaps??) prospect of 80 or +120%, which makes the r/r 46 and that's just crazy good numbers. Is it realistic? Sure, why not. I think it's a valid setup and if it does pop with a vengence, it could run to that target. So yep, it's ambitious, but heck ya gotta aim high!! hehe

And if if fails, it's just another no joy great r/r setup, and then it's clear for all that the wedge call was a stretch hehe

Here's an hourly that shows it better....

[spikefader]

Rob, I've changed my mind. I don't want to go with AMKR afterall.

This week, I want to take ELN long. This should be an exciting week for this stock. I will either lose or win big. Trading will be halted on Tues and Wed.

ELN...Watch this little monkey go. jejejejejejejejeje

Webs, may I recommend this to you: You don't go long ELN tomorrow, but you keep the bullet for when it opens after the halt, and you bid with a limit order at 10.25 for when it reopens. That way you're a bidder at wonderful support and will be a buyer after the good news gets sold and defies logic lol

Besides, I think you're wasting 2 good days to make some profits and gambling on something that could bite you very hard and really mess up your numbers.

Best to ya dude.

[skiracer]

I thought it was a stretch to even call it a wedge on the 10 or 15 min. chart. The farther away from the true definitions makes it that much harder to use the interpretation of the pattern as reliable. Definitely not a wedge on either the daily or weekly as per Bulkowski's definition. Calling it a wedge gives it the impression of being bullish which I didn't see on either of the 10 min. or daily charts. I don't like the formation for trading and could never really understand why it is bullish when it is heading down. I guess they figure it has to turn up sooner or later eventually. I did like the weekly though. Seems to be finishing up the bottom of it's cup and turning up that right side.

[Rob]

IMCL and the Falling Wedge

The whole thing about the sell off over the past two days is that it is the immediate after-effect of a hugely significant and positive news event. Usually a sell-the-news event like this one would take it down much harder and faster than it did. This was a mere ±5% hit on piddly low volume, and personally I find that most encouraging. I could be wrong, but I think this baby's fixin' to move big. At the very least I see very little downside risk.

p.s. I got you covered, Alice.