Hot Pick Of The Day

[New-born baby]

Didn't you hear?

New-born,
I know you're very wary of the market these days , but look at PCU , it's thriving. In your opinion is it due for a correction ?


billyjoe

Billy,
I have been remiss. I hope Runner will not charge me with dereliction of duty. Such negligence is uncalled for. A shoddy omission.

PCU announced a nice $1.70 US divy to paid to share holders on record date of NOV 10. That's why the run up. You could jump in and hold for a few days and jump out before she pulls back for a quick $$$.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
Let's see , PCU has gone directly from 50 to 56 in the last 5 trading days. The weekly chart looks good to my untrained eye. Say I buy 100 shares tomorrow for $5600 and sell on Nov.11th with a guaranteed $170 dividend an easy 3% . If PCU drops below 54.30 , however, I lose. Maybe it will hit 60 and I'll get the $170 + $400 in gains giving me over 10% in about 12 trading days. What to do ? The chart does look promising . Guess I'll sleep on this one. Wish I knew about the 1.70 on Monday. By the way , New-born , any stocks giving out free shares in the near future? I can keep a secret.

billyjoe

[New-born baby]

PCU--the way I see it

New-born,
Let's see , PCU has gone directly from 50 to 56 in the last 5 trading days. The weekly chart looks good to my untrained eye. Say I buy 100 shares tomorrow for $5600 and sell on Nov.11th with a guaranteed $170 dividend an easy 3% . If PCU drops below 54.30 , however, I lose. Maybe it will hit 60 and I'll get the $170 + $400 in gains giving me over 10% in about 12 trading days. What to do ? The chart does look promising . Guess I'll sleep on this one. Wish I knew about the 1.70 on Monday. By the way , New-born , any stocks giving out free shares in the near future? I can keep a secret.

billyjoe

BillyJoe,
Here's what I see:

I would not personally buy PCU and hold through the divy. I think she will retreat to $40 or even lower afterwards. I would be willing to buy it as per the chart notations below, and look for a short term swing of about $3 or $4. Some risk here, Cheri.



And something else, BillyJoe--I'd watch PCU's action very carefully if I were long that stock. Because the next pullback makes a beautiful shoulder-head-shoulder pattern. And I know from experience that once the divy is paid, all kinds of rats start jumping overboard. My dad always used to say, "You know something is wrong when the rats start jumping overboard."

Speaking of rats--check out the chart of FDG. That ship has water in the hold.

[New-born baby]

Better Choice

New-born,
I know you're very wary of the market these days , but look at PCU , it's thriving. In your opinion is it due for a correction ?


billyjoe

BillyJoe,
Do you really want a better pick than PCU? No offering free shares right now, but I think a really nice profitable pick right now would be to short BHMC.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
You may be correct on PCU , but I beg to differ on BMHC . They recently posted a great earnings report and cannot be placed in the same category as TOL and KBH . BMC west covers Texas and the BMC construction division is big in Florida , both states needing massive rebuilding efforts. I wouldn't be shorting them now. Not saying it would be a great long either , but shorting it now would be very risky in my opinion.


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Naz

New-born,
You may be correct on PCU , but I beg to differ on BMHC . They recently posted a great earnings report and cannot be placed in the same category as TOL and KBH . BMC west covers Texas and the BMC construction division is big in Florida , both states needing massive rebuilding efforts. I wouldn't be shorting them now. Not saying it would be a great long either , but shorting it now would be very risky in my opinion.


billyjoe

Yes, you are correct about BMHCs operations in those states. I am looking at how BMHC bled off $4.49 today, and I can see that the NAZ is in bad, bad shape. I am thinking that what happens to the NAZ is going to effect BMHC no matter what rebuilding has to go on.

And just a little info for those who may not know . . .
The biggest institutions that invest in the market are . . .
Insurance companies. That's where they put your premiums.

Question: with all the hurricane damage, do you think that these same insurance companies might pull some cash out of the market to cover their claims? HHmmmmmmm?

[sungod499]

What's your take on CNXS?

Hi New Born Baby,

I'm new here and would like to know your take on CNXS's chart now that earnings are out.

To me CNXS has made a Head and Shoulders top.


Thanks,

sungod

[New-born baby]

3 charts

Hi New Born Baby,
I'm new here and would like to know your take on CNXS's chart now that earnings are out. To me CNXS has made a Head and Shoulders top

Here are three charts that will give you a good idea what may happen next.
1. The Point and Figure chart gives you a price target: $12


2. The daily shows us that a double top (not a head and shoulders) has occurred.



3. The weekly--the trump card of charts--makes a very clear picture for us.
First, a double top occurred. Then the neckline of the double top was broken,
signalling a fall to $22 via Dow Theory, slightly higher via Fib's golden rule. The Golden Rule was broken and it did touch $22 briefly. The stock immediately jumped back up to retest the neckline, and could not break that line of resistance. It finished the week down .03.

Conclusion: I think CNXS is going to fall down. It seems clear that the $26 level is key. IF CNXS breaks below $26, then I'd say a retreat to $22--or even lower this time--is a strong possibility. I'd look for at least a retest of the $22 low. At that point I'd have to re-evalutate the chart, because I'd expect her to bounce off of support a little (making a bear flag) before continuing down.

What I expect to happen this week, maybe even Monday, is a retest of that $26 level. Now if you believe in this stock, you could go long here and put a stop under it. If you do not believe in this stock, you short it once it breaks the $26 support. Or if you want to bear charge this thing, you just short the first spike up Monday.

[Runner]

NB, chart looks like it was hit with buck-shot. Might be at temp support but I would not touch it on the long or short side.

[sungod499]

Thank you

Thanks NBB and Runner for the consice and informative answer

sungod

[billyjoe]

New-born,
It's BMHC full steam ahead.


billyjoe

[Runner]

Hey NB, ya think CWTR might make a run back to 31.00 area? What about SONC making a bounce off lower channel to 30.00?

SONC channel:

[New-born baby]

Yup

Runner,
yes, CWTR and SONC both look like they can make a run higher. I think CWTR will pullback some after today's big move, and then one could enter. The STOs all say higher.

[Runner]

NB, thanks for your take on these. I passed on both. AMED once again popped up today. I traded this one a while ago for a decent gain. Might have popped out of a S/H/S formation today.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
Finally stopped out of BMHC at 83.01 then it promptly goes up past 86 That's it for this stock. Too much volatility for me . Time to rebuild the portfolio with high quality. As the weather worsens there will be more time for research.

billyjoe