Stocks on my screens

**billyjoe** · 02-24-2005, 08:30 PM

Scifos,

I've held BMHC for almost 4 months , buying 3 times between 29.90 and 34.48 sold a batch at 36.15 and bought back on dips. It's earnings blew away estimates and I've raised my next sell point to 50 for 1/2 my remaining holdings. I think it will hit 50, but may drop 2 or three points to about 42.15 before resuming climb. This was one of my picks in the pre-presidential stock picking contest, but it didn't do anything until about Nov. 7th.

billyjoe

**scifos** · 02-24-2005, 08:56 PM

I am really starting to like my freight train screen. I'm thinking of developing a trading system around it. Something like holding the top 3, use discretion in buying stocks ranked 4 or 5 (after passing other DD of course), sell half of position when stock falls to 5-12, use discretion on holding or selling stocks falling to 13-20, and sell entire position when stock exits list.

**New-born baby** · 02-24-2005, 09:51 PM

Freight Trains

Scifos,

I think you might well change your name to Freight Train. That would be an awesome moniker to go with your stock screener.

GMR---nice tanker stock, going to pay out a big divy soon. Trying to emulate FRO for the big divies. I like it. If I had the change, it would be in my port.

TOL--everyone keeps trying to drive the final nail in this home builder's coffin, but I just don't believe it is dead. Builder stocks are up $1.50 one day, down $1.50 the next, so entry is important for quick daytrades. But I love TOL, HOV and MDC. I think this thing Hammers. Great stock with which to build a portfolio.

Vlo--I have watched this thing move from $50 to $70 in about three weeks, and the train is still highballing across the chart. And I'll tell you the oil stocks have not peaked. Summer driving is going to be a $2-$4 gallon experience, depending upon your location. California may very well see $4 gallon gasoline. Why? China and India are buying everything they can get their hands on. VOL is not even close to running out of steam.

**scifos** · 02-24-2005, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by New-born baby

VOL--I have watched this thing move from $50 to $70 in about three weeks, and the train is still highballing across the chart. And I'll tell you the oil stocks have not peaked. Summer driving is going to be a $2-$4 gallon experience, depending upon your location. California may very well see $4 gallon gasoline. Why? China and India are buying everything they can get their hands on. VOL is not even close to running out of steam.

For clairity's sake and for other reader's sake, I believe you mean VLO.

**scifos** · 02-26-2005, 07:34 PM

-=Bump=-

Anyone else have opinion's on any of these stocks?

**scifos** · 03-01-2005, 02:50 AM

Update on what's back on my radar.

HOC: Jumped back into the top 3 of my Freight Train list. Looking at the chart, I might wait for it to touch the upper channel then pull back, or buy a channel break. Its gapped, so that could fill too. Note the ADX is freaking HUGE on this one!

GMR: Didn't like the bearish engulfing today. Its sitting right above it's significant price by volume support. Don't know if it's ready to touch the top channel or the bottom (help on this call spike?)

NUE: Seems like this stock can't put together two consecutave up days. Okay up trend. Honestly, the technicals aren't saying much to me either way. Fundamentals are so strong though.

NAT: Gapped up today. The play was to go long on the 22nd and head for the upper channel touch. Now that its almost there, I'd wait.

CMC: The essense of Freight Train as evidenced by its narrow regression channels. Had a bearish engulfing today, but it was a gap fill from the day before. Its got a little weak spot volume wise right underneath it, should be interesting to see if it falls through it.

VLO: Some uglyness today (it was a down market today afterall). May look to enter the channel touch at 70-ish. Weakening RSI and ADX, would like to see that corrected before a buy as well.

LSS: Looking at a 6-mo chart, might be a cup w/ handle ready to break out. I'm not really very good at what exactly is a cup with handle, so Spike could help with this one.

BXG: Recent channel turn ups, will watch closer. Could be moving out of trading mode into an uptrend, but I'd like to see confirmation of it first.

Other stuff:
TOL still looks strong, could be an entry point.
Still watching BBSI
Looking for NX to come back down to 56-57 range.

**MEA_1956** · 03-01-2005, 04:14 AM

Great Thread!!!! Keep It Coming, Your two cents is worth a nickel. ===> M.E.A.

**scifos** · 03-01-2005, 03:01 PM

lol, every stock listed above is down at the moment. NX getting close to a buy point I think.

**Hany** · 03-01-2005, 03:25 PM

Nx

Here is what S&P said about NX:

Quanex produces hot rolled special bar quality carbon and alloy steel bars and aluminum building products.

Sector: Materials
Sub-Industry: Steel
Peer Group: Steelmakers - Specialty

S&P Earnings & Dividend Rank: B
NX is more investable than 91% of all companies for which an S&P Report is available.
12-Month Target Price: $68.00
Therefore, it is rated a BUY

- Following NX's pre-announcement of EPS of $1.20 to $1.30 for FY 05's first quarter, we upgraded our opinion on the shares to buy, from hold, on a more optimistic outlook for EPS. NX's revised guidance for the quarter was far in excess of our $0.70 estimate. The company cited improvement at existing operations, strong market conditions, and contributions from acquisitions. On our expectation that this improvement will continue for the balance of FY 05, we increased our EPS estimate for the year to $5.10, from $3.06.

- Risks to our recommendation and target price include possible shortfalls in sales and EPS, due to unanticipated weakness in the company's end markets. NX's sales are highly dependent on the auto and housing markets.

- Based on our revised FY 05 EPS estimate, our 12-month target price is $68. We assume that the P/E multiple will expand, driven by what we see as a much stronger balance sheet and rising free cash flow. At 13X our projected EPS, the stock's P/E multiple at our target price would be slightly above the midpoint of its historical range over the past 10 years.

My worthless opinion: great, steel prices will stay high. Homebuilding will stay strong for a little longer with the accomodative policies of Feds. The Auto industry should benefit a little bit from the very weak dollar. I think that NX is a good stock to buy and I'm looking to buy it in the next 4 days.

**noshadyldy** · 03-01-2005, 03:50 PM

Great thread, Hany. Thanks!

**scifos** · 03-01-2005, 03:52 PM

Good research. I usually try to read what the S&P has to say on a stock before I buy it.

**scifos** · 03-03-2005, 08:34 PM

Cnq

Came across CNQ today. Fresh off of record quarterly and annual earnings (no surprise considering the oil market in the last year). Could be a short term play towards 62, or a long term hold.

**scifos** · 03-04-2005, 05:15 PM

Update on what I'm doing.

Taking a week off for spring break. Going to Hot Springs later today for some drinking and gambling. Then its off to Minnesota to spend precious time with the most amazing woman alive. So I won't be doing my usual weekend research and because I'll be away from my PC I'll close NUE @ +10% (which is about right anyways) and put a hard stop under CNQ @ 54 (midline of 6-month regression channel and just slightly below volume support) Haven't had BMHC for very long and would like to see a little more upside before I sell, so I haven't decided if I'll put in a market sell or some kind of stop. Don't really have time to figure out where the stop would be, I'm leaving any minute, so I'll probably just close out @ +6%

Wouldn't be a bad thing to liquidate everything, as I'm looking to switch from Ameritrade to Scottrade or Freetrade.

Take note: PLNI (my personal disaster) has been on the move for the last month. Could be a long?? (jk)

I would like to offer some commentary on NX, but again, don't have time to. Interested parties should really look at it though.

Everybody have a great week!

!!!!! I'M ON VACATION !!!!!

**billyjoe** · 03-04-2005, 05:59 PM

Scifos,

It's nice of you to spend time with your mother.

billyjoe

Stocks on my screens

Stocks on my screens

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