Stocks on my screens

[scifos]

Newcomer to the Deeply Discounted portfolio:
PKOH will be added, it made it onto the screen by increasing it's market cap above the minimum $200m

[scifos]

Thought I'd give an update since there have been a few developments.
Tick -- Paid -- Current -- Percent
RYI -- 21.69 - 30.49 -- 40.57%
FIA -- 18.47 - 20.88 -- 13.05% <-- Sold. Met price target today.
BXC -- 10.85 - 11.20 -- 3.23%
GLP -- 23.90 - 26.70 -- 11.72% <-- Sold. Met price target.
SAI -- 19.00 - 18.43 -- -3.00% <--stopped out. Will re-evaluate if price rises


For those of you who don't know. This is a screen for companies with market cap > 200 million, a positive PE and EPS who have more per share liquid assets than per share short term debts.

I ran the screen today and the only good ones on it are RYI and BXC. GLP is on it but the price target is only 2% above its current price.

Another Update:


Tick -- Paid -- Current -- Percent
RYI -- 21.69 - 34.69 -- 59.94% <-- Up 11% today. Will be removed at the end of the week because it reported a loss for the last quarter, and no longer meets the screen requirements. Nice gain today though.
FIA -- 18.47 - 20.88 -- 13.05% <-- Sold. Now at 23.85 (+29.13%)
BXC -- 10.85 - 12.14 -- 11.89% <-- Finally moving some.
GLP -- 23.90 - 26.70 -- 11.72% <-- Sold. Now at 27.65 (+15.69)
SAI -- 19.00 - 18.43 -- -3.00% <--stopped out. Will re-evaluate if price rises (Now at 18.17, probably the dud of the group. When you're picking "cheap" stocks, some take awhile and some just don't pop)

PKOH --17.80 - 18.20 -- 2.25% <-- Not a lot of movement yet. But wait and see.

Average +18.72% on the older picks, +15.98% on all picks to date.

[scifos]

http://p11.spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?id=o11998526223552697607.5039959089948564109.01078648023996035032.1965922219278316427

[scifos]

http://a4b.spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?id=o11998526223552697607.5039959089948564109.01078648023996035032.4568695403437892191

RYI still doing great, GLP up after meeting target as well. I play them off and on after they leave the screen. PKOH sank hard last week, and hopefully will rebound well soon. Average of +16% now.

[scifos]

Its been about a month since my last update. Here's where the picks stand:


Tick -- Paid -- Current -- Percent
RYI -- 21.69 - 40.51 -- 86.77% <-- Has held gains well during market downs and shot up again when they rebound. Was off the screen for a few days, but is now fully qualified again.
FIA -- 18.47 - 25.90 -- 40.23% <-- Continues to rise. Not on screen anymore, but still tracking it.
BXC -- 10.85 - 10.81 -- -0.37% <-- Now back to where it was picked in November. If you sold some at the target you'd be up 68.85%
GLP -- 23.90 - 37.14 -- 55.40% <-- Took it's time becoming a hit. Not on screen anymore either.
SAI -- 19.00 - 17.76 -- -6.53% <-- I posted awhile back that I had abandoned this one at -3%, it has been the loser of the group the whole way. Still tracking though. Had come back to my purchase price, but passed on it then too.

PKOH --17.80 - 18.93 -- 6.35% <-- Picked later than the above stocks. Is still kinda a slow mover. Keeping close eye on this one, as it went pretty negative before climbing back into positive territory.

Average of 30.31% (including SAI) since November. Somebody check on the S&P 500 and let me know how bad I'm making it look. Its easy, we just buy stocks where (cash-short term debt)/share > price/share AND earnings/share > 0 AND Price/earnings > 0 AND market cap > 200 million (if you want, you can eliminate the market cap and/or either the P/E or EPS to get more results.) and wait for the market to notice that they are DEEPLY DISCOUNTED

[spikefader]

...average of 30.31%...

Outstanding scifos! I guess ya don't need TA with FA like that!

[New-born baby]

Very nice!

Congrats Scifos! Beautiful work!

[jiesen]

Wow, Scifos! HUGE results!!! Nice job.

[scifos]

This is only the second "batch" of stocks that I've tracked from this screen. I don't have the exact results of the first one, but it was about the same number of stocks picked back in march of 06 until about the end of september. AKS was the big winner, can't remember how much it was up, over 50% I think (may have posted about it earlier in this thread) and the others were up over 10% as well, except for one that was down like 8%. The screen doesn't add or remove names very often, and only returns a very few (between 2 and 7).

Edit: Ah, found the old post. Looks like my memory is a little too rosy http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showth...470&#post73470

[peanuts]

Scifos, it's great to see that you're making your new wife happy with all the money you're raking in! Congrats on some outstanding strategic decisions. The method is sure to catch on. Thanks for sharing. Oh yeah, HUUUUUUGE

[scifos]

RYI has surpassed +100% since my Deeply Discounted screen identified it on Nov 26th, 2006 and I bought on the 27th. I was out of it for about a week awhile back, and am actually a little shy of 100% myself. Here's an update on all the stocks:


Tick -- Paid -- Current -- Percent
RYI -- 21.69 - 43.75 -- 101.71% <-- Home Run.
FIA -- 18.47 - 28.26 -- 53.00% <-- Continues to rise. Broke it's 52-week high at some point, I just realized this.
BXC -- 10.85 - 11.79 -- 8.66% <-- If you sold some at the target you'd be up 68.85%, since then its fluctuated near the price I picked it at.
GLP -- 23.90 - 35.62 -- 49.04% <-- Took it's time becoming a hit. Retreating a little lately.
SAI -- 19.00 - 18.62 -- -2.00% <-- Nearing original purchase price, might buy back in if it has a breakout.

PKOH --17.80 - 20.29 -- 13.48% <-- Picked later than the above stocks. Is still kinda a slow mover. Keeping close eye on this one, as it went pretty negative before climbing back into positive territory.

Average of 37.32% (including SAI) since November. My plan is to keep watching until May and see how they are after 6 months. Then I'll see if I can get another batch together.

[skiracer]

RYI has surpassed +100% since my Deeply Discounted screen identified it on Nov 26th, 2006 and I bought on the 27th. I was out of it for about a week awhile back, and am actually a little shy of 100% myself. Here's an update on all the stocks:


Tick -- Paid -- Current -- Percent
RYI -- 21.69 - 43.75 -- 101.71% <-- Home Run.
FIA -- 18.47 - 28.26 -- 53.00% <-- Continues to rise. Broke it's 52-week high at some point, I just realized this.
BXC -- 10.85 - 11.79 -- 8.66% <-- If you sold some at the target you'd be up 68.85%, since then its fluctuated near the price I picked it at.
GLP -- 23.90 - 35.62 -- 49.04% <-- Took it's time becoming a hit. Retreating a little lately.
SAI -- 19.00 - 18.62 -- -2.00% <-- Nearing original purchase price, might buy back in if it has a breakout.

PKOH --17.80 - 20.29 -- 13.48% <-- Picked later than the above stocks. Is still kinda a slow mover. Keeping close eye on this one, as it went pretty negative before climbing back into positive territory.

Average of 37.32% (including SAI) since November. My plan is to keep watching until May and see how they are after 6 months. Then I'll see if I can get another batch together.

Outstanding Scifos. Great plays. Congrats. Post the new ones as early as you can.

[scifos]

I checked today, and two new stocks have passed the deeply discounted screen. One is FBN, which is down about 30% in the last year due to the housing slowdown and weak furniture sales. I'd proceed with caution on this one, as it looks like housing is going to suck for awhile.

The other one is GMKT, which apparently is a south korean retail website. They recently announced a 70% increase in revenues over Q1 2006 and a 246% increase in net income (http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release...ease_id=250597) This one might be worth a closer look.

right now, I'm not going to track either of these as "official" deeply discounted picks because I plan on doing a 6-month review of the current picks later this month, looking at what they did prior to November 2006 and since. I hope to get some clear ideas about what exactly to do with the stocks from the screen. This last batch has done stellar just buying and holding, but the market has been very strong the whole time (and thats keeping the list quite short, IMO).

[dalion]

take a look at SXL. it's pretty huge

[scifos]

Deeply Discounted 6 month review

I wanted to post this yesterday, but wound up cutting down trees instead. Its too bad, because CLMS was up like 10 % today alone, and although I haven't checked that might have put it over the first target.

See the annotated charts at http://www.flickr.com/photos/3678265...7600283764409/

For my 6-month review, I wanted to look at how my picks had done, and see if I could improve the buy&hold strategy with some sort of stop.

On November 27, 2006 the S&P 500 opened at 1400.95 and on May 25, 2007 it closed at 1515.73; a gain of 8.19%. During this time, 4 out of my 6 picks outperformed the market, and by a wide margin. One pick gained, but less than the market, and one pick broke even. The average gain of the six stocks since being picked is 34.48%, well above market. Below are some graphs and my comments.

RYI:
The timing of this pick was, by coincidence, perfect. It was coming off of a sharp pullback to the lower bollinger band, the MACD and RSI had bottomed. The stock rose well the entire time, with light pullbacks along the way. The last two weeks were a different story. The RSI, after falling to 50 (the midline) failed to break above 70 again. At the same time the price fell to the lower bollinger band for the first time sine being picked, and also hit the 50 day moving average for the first time. Although the target was never met, this downturn is much stronger than previous pullbacks, and probably marks the end of this trend. Although we weren’t able to stay in triple digit, gains, a 71.55% gain should make anyone happy.

FIA:
The timing of this pick was also very good, coming at the end of a slight pullback. FIA wasn’t moving very much at the beginning, but once it started trending, RSI and MACD stayed strong throughout. As with RYI, the technicals have turned sour at the end. RSI came down to the midline and hasn’t returned to 70, MACD as fallen sharply, and price has fallen to the lower bollinger band and the 50-day moving average as well. I’d be inclined to exit here, well above the $20.75 target with a 48.62% gain.

BXC:
BXC was a bit of a disappointment. But hey, it still made money. It was up and down and never established a trend. At its peak, the pick was up over 12%, but finished with a market lagging 4.24% As a note, using a touch of the lower bollinger band seems like a good exit considering RYI and FIA, but would have resulted in a loss for BXC. Perhaps that rule would only apply after the stock has established a trend. I’m not altogether sure what to think of this one, it just seems like a mediocre trade. Any analysis/comments from anyone?

GLP:
Like FIA, GLP was also a little slow in taking off. But the screen pays no attention to timing. Once it broke out, the RSI remained in 70+ territory, while the MACD continued to rise. In April, it had a strong pullback to the middle bollinger band, and I was relieved that it bounced off that line instead of continuing down to the lower bb line. After recovering from the pullback, it seems to have lost steam and a top has set in. RSI is now sub 70 and MACD shows that the strong trend is pretty much over. Since the trend ended, the lower bb line has caught up with price. That makes this point a good place to lock in some or all of that 53.22% gain, but adventurous people could watch and see if it can break that top at about 38-ish.

SAI:
SAI was a bust from the beginning. On the last day, it climbed enough for it to break even. I hadn’t realized that it was such a new issue, and its lack of historical earnings info may have allowed it to pass the deeply discounted screen, but hey, that’s what DD is for.

PKOH:
This pick was added on Feb 2, 2007, and so has not been tracked for six months. Of all the picks, it appears to have the most upside right now. At 29.27% gain, the RSI and MACD are both still strong, and this one could still have room to run. The timing of the pick was not optimal, and it had a pullback soon after the pick date. It actually tagged the lower BB, but it had not reached the first target.

Last thoughts.
I would bet that a good portion of the gains could be attributed to the rising market overall. But the S&P 500 had been rising steadily prior to the pick date, and RYI, BXC, GLP, and PKOH hadn’t been trending very strongly up prior to the pick date. I wouldn’t expect the deeply discounted screen to perform as well in a down market. It seems, by the anecdotal evidence that a tag of the lower bollinger band after establishing a trend would be a good way to exit after the first target has been reached. RYI would seem to be an exception, as there are multiple negative signs despite not reaching its target.

So what stocks are passing the screen right now?
RYI is still on the list, as it has not reached its lofty target. If I remember right, it was on the screen way back in march of 2006, and there might be some fundamental reason why it is always on the list other than being deeply discounted. PKOH is also on the screen, and looks like it the sky is the limit right now. THQI is on the list as well with a first target of 45.14 (about 39% gain). BXC is still on the list, and as I’ve said above, I’m not sure what to think of this one, and may just stay away from it for now. CHT is on the list with a target of 20.46, just under its 52 week high. The last one has passed the screen for a few weeks and I currently own it: CLMS, with a target price of 24.78 it is pretty close to reaching right now.