Skiracer's stock slopes

[hags]

Or we could get a bounce right here....

[dmk112]

Or we could get a bounce right here....

You got that right... got more at 3.58... average now @ 3.75

[skiracer]

I found this to be an interesting take and worthwhile information to give some consideration.

By James Altucher

I traded for a while for a prop trading firm. The strategy I used worked successfully until I decided to start the website Stockpickr.com and I stopped trading for the firm so I could focus my entrepeneurial efforts.
I was talking to one of the most successful traders at the firm. At the time I think he was trading with upward of $100 million. He always told me stories, like how he traded in the pits in the October crash of 1987 with [name several famous traders].
One rule he always told me: one coming out of a major market slide you want to buy two types of stocks: the best companies and the worst companies. The best companies are sort of obvious: you want to buy the guys that got irrationally sold off and will bounce back strong. But the worst companies was interesting: basically, everyone went short them into the slide and now they have to cover coming out, so it provides extra bounce.
In any case, here are the Nasdaq 100 stocks that had the best relative performance since the Nasdaq 100 made its April 27 high and the stocks in the Nasdaq 100 that had the worst relative performance. Both groups make for an interesting buy here:
The best:
AKAM up 9% since the Nasdaq 100 made its high. In other words, AKAM has actually gone up while the rest of the market slid.
BIDU up 7%
ILMN up 6.73%
ORLY up 2.6%
VRSN up 0.58%
The other 95 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 have all traded down. Here are the worst:
PCLN -32%
JOYG -28%
SHLD -27%
NVDA -24%
FWLT -24%
James Altucher is a managing partner of Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm, and an author on investment strategies. Unlike Dow Jones reporters, he may have positions in the stocks he writes about.

So I checked out each of these stocks to see how they performed after thursdays big market selloff and here are the results. I think the strategy isn't a "for sure" bet but there could be something there. It certainly was good for PCLN which made the biggest upside move the day after the selloff. Here is how each of the above listed stocks performed on Friday.

Best Relative Strength Performing Stocks

AKAM: +1.30 / +3.45%
BIDU: +3.27 / +4.84%
ILUM: -.17 / -.43%
ORLY: +.12 / +.25%
VRSN: -.21 / -.76%

Worst Relative Strength Performing Stocks

PCLN: +10.24 / +5.66%
JOYG: +3.01 / +6.58%
SHLD: -.09 / -.10%
NVDA: +.27 / +2.17%
FWLT: +1.05 / +4.43%

You can draw your own conclusions but it looks to be that the worst performing ones might offer the best opportunities the day after a big selloff in the markets. Taking a look at each of the charts on these stocks will give you a clear idea of how both strong and weak stocks are effected by how the market trends.

[wooish]

Good article but no one knows when the selloff ends. On Friday, PCLN was in the red in the morning but came out strong during the rest of the day. I've read from many sites that this may be a dead cat bounce and we may head lower so who knows. I'm all long in my portfolio but I think it may be a good idea to buy some puts against the dow, sp as a hedge.

[skiracer]

Good article but no one knows when the selloff ends. On Friday, PCLN was in the red in the morning but came out strong during the rest of the day. I've read from many sites that this may be a dead cat bounce and we may head lower so who knows. I'm all long in my portfolio but I think it may be a good idea to buy some puts against the dow, sp as a hedge.

I think that may be a good strategy wooish. I'm not necessarily backing this particular strategy but I thought it was interesting. Even before I read it, sometime Friday nite, I was thinking and looking for a bounce after thursdays big selloff. I was kind of surprised when I came across this article because it kind of coincided with my own feelings. I don't know what Monday is going to bring but I hope the selling is over with.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
It's funny that you would post that article. I was just thinking about a strategy that VV came up with a few months ago called NPM and romancing the NPM. It basically is also stating that the best and worst stocks are the best candidates for price appreciation. They used a 39 week backtest. When I saw the 2 opposing strategies at first I thought it was a mistake but called them and found that they run the screen, take the 10 best and 10 worst and they show the greatest gains when the market shows signs of recovery. I hope this link works.

http://www.vectorvest.com/BLOG/?tag=/npm

-----------billy

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I'm continuing to ad to my NJR position and also look to get more NYB although the chart is nay too good looking right now. Controversial analyst Dick Bove says that NYB's limited exposure to Europe insures they'll be making tons of $$ in the not to distant future. I'd like to retire with a great monthly income from these dividend payers.

-------------billy

[skiracer]

Ski,
I'm continuing to ad to my NJR position and also look to get more NYB although the chart is nay too good looking right now. Controversial analyst Dick Bove says that NYB's limited exposure to Europe insures they'll be making tons of $$ in the not to distant future. I'd like to retire with a great monthly income from these dividend payers.

-------------billy

billy, a little more than 34 years ago I was in a lot of trouble. I had no real job, everything that I was doing was either illegal or immoral, I had some money stashed but whatever money I had was in my pocket, I was facing large lawyer bills, plus I was facing a decent prison sentence which was going to be my 2nd tour at Trenton or Rahway State Prison. I had decided to leave the country for good and was making my preparations when inadvertently I met Lisa. Within a year we got married and 7 months after that I was sentenced and sent to Trenton State Prison. Lisa was the 1st of the life changing things that happened to me. two years later I was back on the street again and as they say, I was rehabilitated. I had a long way to make it back to even but I luckily had landed on my feet. Someone casually mentioned NJR to me as a way to build wealth over the long term. I was now committed to being legal and making a life for us so I made a committment to begin buying NJR with whatever extra I could manage and that was around 1981. I got lucky with several things and was able to parlay my extra into more extra but I kept plowing everything extra into NJR. The end to the story is that over the past 30 years of plowing any extra and the dividends back into the stock it made me rich. I have been investing in it since 1981 and never once have taken a dime out of it and every dividend has been plowed back into buying more. It is never to late to begin. I'm still a wild nutty guy but at least now I'm well heeled on top of it.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I also had very little when I met my wife in 1981. The right woman seems to have a great effect on a guy. That and the Dow being at 800 or so........fast forward 29 years and things are lookin' good even when they appear bad.

-------------billy

[skiracer]

Ski,
I also had very little when I met my wife in 1981. The right woman seems to have a great effect on a guy. That and the Dow being at 800 or so........fast forward 29 years and things are lookin' good even when they appear bad.

-------------billy

Keep buying as much NJR as you can Billy and turn them divy's back into more stock. It will pay off in the end.

[wooish]

Billy

On top of earning dividend on your NJR, you may as well sell some out of money option calls to earn more $$ since you're holding the stock anyway. I'm thinking about buy some good dividend stocks in the IRA and selling those options calls to make the holding even sweeter.

[dmk112]

I think that may be a good strategy wooish. I'm not necessarily backing this particular strategy but I thought it was interesting. Even before I read it, sometime Friday nite, I was thinking and looking for a bounce after thursdays big selloff. I was kind of surprised when I came across this article because it kind of coincided with my own feelings. I don't know what Monday is going to bring but I hope the selling is over with.

pretty interesting ski..... bot TNA on friday and sold it flat as it pulled back...then it rallied back up to highs in 5 minutes... manipulation at its best.

[A L Adams]

Billy

On top of earning dividend on your NJR, you may as well sell some out of money option calls to earn more $$ since you're holding the stock anyway. I'm thinking about buy some good dividend stocks in the IRA and selling those options calls to make the holding even sweeter.
Speaking of dividends, does anyone know anything about AOD and AGD. These guys are currently paying around 20% dividends. Are these guys for real or another Bernie Madoff??? The Corp. itself looks like has been around since 1998. But, these particular positions have only been with us since 2006.... If hese guys are for real, you can't beat the dividends!!! Anybody know anything about them?????

[skiracer]

Billy

On top of earning dividend on your NJR, you may as well sell some out of money option calls to earn more $$ since you're holding the stock anyway. I'm thinking about buy some good dividend stocks in the IRA and selling those options calls to make the holding even sweeter.
Speaking of dividends, does anyone know anything about AOD and AGD. These guys are currently paying around 20% dividends. Are these guys for real or another Bernie Madoff??? The Corp. itself looks like has been around since 1998. But, these particular positions have only been with us since 2006.... If hese guys are for real, you can't beat the dividends!!! Anybody know anything about them?????

I can't say that I do but I check them out and see what I can come up with.

[skiracer]

NYB is at a very nice level for an entry here at $15.39. that's $.46 lower than my initial entry of $15.75 when I first mentioned the setup a couple of months ago. Here is the weekly chart:


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and the monthly chart:


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I'm looking at the July 10 / $16 calls. They closed friday at $.55 and the bid was $.50 and the ask was $.65. That means that any entry under $.60 puts you in the call at under the strike price of $16. That set of circumstances is something that you don't see often and is a big edge especially with as fundamentally strong a stock as NYB. Another point is that NYB is not going to be thrown into that same group of financials that did all the derivative trading and that the govt's new set of financial regulations are meant to control. They make their money the old fashioned way, they earn it thru sound fundamental banking.