KBH ==> The Hot and Humid Winner

[New-born baby]

Camel back injury

My last post warned that KBH was sitting on support and, if anything injured that support, she would fall down. Today she is down $2 right now. Target: $60.

I think this is going to be ugly. And then we will have an opportunity to go long.

[New-born baby]

The news

My last post warned that KBH was sitting on support and, if anything injured that support, she would fall down. Today she is down $2 right now. Target: $60.

I think this is going to be ugly. And then we will have an opportunity to go long.

The news that has sent KBH, TOL and BMHC sliding today is the news that home sales slid 2.6% in July. Significantly, KBH is down on heavy volume.

[[email protected]]

that stock sucks

BCON is a much better investment, sorry I followed this bomb....choffman

[mrmarket]

Let's put this all in real terms. Everyone here that owns a house. How much do you think your home value will actually drop (if at all)?

Ok...now how many new immigrants or first time home buyers are going to move to Canada or Mexico??

When scared money investors buy stocks at a high and sell at a low, I can guarantee only one thing. These investors will lose money. Why don't people just use own their brain, instead of just doing what everyone else does?

You make money in the market because you are right and the market is wrong. If you don't have confidence in yourself, and your ability to sniff out mispriced stocks, you CANNOT invest this way.

[jiesen]

Housing data - New record high for new-home sales

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050824/economy.html?.v=9

KBH is up $3 on better than expected housing data (and TOL is up $2). I guess the housing crash isn't quite here yet, and KBH is not going to 60 just because it hit 70, after all!

[New-born baby]

$60 or $100

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050824/economy.html?.v=9

KBH is up $3 on better than expected housing data (and TOL is up $2). I guess the housing crash isn't quite here yet, and KBH is not going to 60 just because it hit 70, after all!

Yeah, Louis Navillier sent out a message last night to buy all the housing stock you can buy. That helps.

[jiesen]

Yeah, Louis Navillier sent out a message last night to buy all the housing stock you can buy. That helps.

Looks like he made a pretty good call- short term anyway. Or a lot of people listen to him.

[New-born baby]

Big ears

Looks like he made a pretty good call- short term anyway. Or a lot of people listen to him.

A LOT of people listen to him. But he is not a pump and dump. And you know he has a "Bulls and Bears" TV program.

[jiesen]

A LOT of people listen to him. But he is not a pump and dump. And you know he has a "Bulls and Bears" TV program.

Yes, I know, if he's on TV millions are guaranteed to listen- just look at Jim Cramer. And no, he's not a pump and dump- he sells Technical Trading Tips, based on the claim that he "beats the market again by 3-to-1". His business model is flawed, though. Send me $29.99 and I'll tell you why.

(I'm joking, Louis, if you're reading this, so please don't sue me. I actually know very little about you.)

[New-born baby]

Ten Year Treasury Notes

WHAT DO YOU KNOW?!!??
The ten year treasury note is falling in price--housing stocks will benefit!

[jiesen]

WHAT DO YOU KNOW?!!??
The ten year treasury note is falling in price--housing stocks will benefit!

Um, your chart shows the yield of the note dropping, not the price. When the yield drops, that means the price is actually higher.

And while the housing market does benefit from lower rates, a 0.2% downtick is pretty meaningless and temporary in the face of constant pressure from the Fed's 0.25% increases at every meeting. Maybe this movement signifies market sentiment that the Fed will actually stop putting the screws to the market, but then again, maybe not. To me, it's just short-term noise.

At any rate, (pun intended) whether mortgages are 5% or 6%, the homebuilders are still minting money, and I wouldn't worry about our stocks until rates move much higher, say 8-10%. By that time, though, we'll have moved out of our homebuilders and on to bigger and better things. If we do see an interest rate shock in the coming months, though, I should at least be able to recoup some of the damage with my FNM puts which could explode when $50B (or 5% of their portfolio) worth of loans suddenly quit performing for them, ala OFG or WSB.

By the way, when does that new bankruptcy law take effect?

[billyjoe]

"Bankruptcy filings rise sharply in Northern Kentucky and Ohio in anticipation of October 17th changes" Cincinnati Enquirer


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Housing for July, 2005

Today it was announced by the Federal gov't that housing sales in July was up 2.6%, but the average price of a new home fell from $214,000 in July, 2004 to $204,000 in July 2005.

[mrmarket]

TOL reports tomorrow...I'm sure KBH will move in sympathy.

[New-born baby]

I agree

TOL reports tomorrow...I'm sure KBH will move in sympathy.

Yes, TOL, KBH and BMHC as well as HOV and MDC ought to all move together. It will be interesting. I'd like to get my money back on KBH--all $10 per share. This thing could do anything via the chart. Mixed signals all over the place. All set to rocket up higher; all set up to collapse. TOL will tell the story.


You can bet I am going to watch this one like a hawk. When the news hits, then we'll know how this thing is going to shake out. Hopefully, she's going to rocket higher on very heavy volume. It would be nice if she moved up on 5x volume. If I go on margin for the day, and the cards all fall right, I can get a good portion, or even all, of my money back.