KBH ==> The Hot and Humid Winner

[mtm]

[skiracer]

So is this a class in cryptology. You post a chart and that's it. A RAF channel that looks like it is hand drawn with no explanation of what your feelings are in regard to the chart. The channels could or could not, probably not as they are not a true RAF channel, exhibit or plot the true channel lines. So the candles hit the top channel line, which could signal a trend reversal and the stock hits and breaks through a trend line almost immediately after hitting the top channel line which could be expected after hitting the top channel line. Is that it an all there is to it.
Is there a feeling regarding what it will do this coming week or just the chart with the hand drawn lines.

[New-born baby]

Be gentle

So is this a class in cryptology. You post a chart and that's it. A RAF channel that looks like it is hand drawn with no explanation of what your feelings are in regard to the chart. The channels could or could not, probably not as they are not a true RAF channel, exhibit or plot the true channel lines. So the candles hit the top channel line, which could signal a trend reversal and the stock hits and breaks through a trend line almost immediately after hitting the top channel line which could be expected after hitting the top channel line. Is that it an all there is to it.
Is there a feeling regarding what it will do this coming week or just the chart with the hand drawn lines.

Ski,
Be gentle. MTM is a first-class trader. We need his kind around here
We can figure out this much about the chart:
Look at this chart: you know that the market moved below the bull line he has drawn.

Look at those Fib retracements levels. The question for us is this: how far will the market retrace? Which of those lines will prove to be support from which another run for the bulls will start?
Look at this chart:
Better pray the market finds support at support one rather than at a fib retracement level.

[mtm]

So is this a class in cryptology. You post a chart and that's it. A RAF channel that looks like it is hand drawn with no explanation of what your feelings are in regard to the chart. The channels could or could not, probably not as they are not a true RAF channel, exhibit or plot the true channel lines. So the candles hit the top channel line, which could signal a trend reversal and the stock hits and breaks through a trend line almost immediately after hitting the top channel line which could be expected after hitting the top channel line. Is that it an all there is to it.
Is there a feeling regarding what it will do this coming week or just the chart with the hand drawn lines.

If you go back and read the preceding posts, I am pretty sure you will find the answer.

[mtm]

Also Skiracer, could you find me the definition of a "RAF channel"? I have never heard of it? Were they hand drawn? How else would they get there? If my lines are drawn wrong, please ask Mr. Murphy what I should do to correct them since he also draws them the same way.

Here is a link for those that need a definition of how trendlines work.

[mtm]

Thanks for the clearifcation NBB. I thought Ski new TA.

[skiracer]

I do know a little bit about T/A but probably just enough to get me into trouble. Certainly not as good with the channels as Spike but I do get by. Here is what I was talking about.
NB, I thought I was being gentle.



Anyway I have thought that the sector has been overbought for awhile now. Especially TOL and KBH an was looking for a drop which we got. This prompted me to begin to look for an entry on either one of the two. Moreso KBH because it took the bigger hit of the two last Friday. Your chart of the index doesn't give the same signal that the one above does. But that's what makes a horserace.
I didn't include the Fib. retracement lines with this but I do agree with you both that they are important in this situation. But that wasn't necessarily what we were talking about.
I also should apologize for the placement of my text and the color. Still in the learning stages of using the annotation process and how to move the text around. But if you squint real close you'll be able to read it.

[mtm]

First off yours is a channel and second off you drew your channel on half the time if not less than mine. So, you comparing your chart analysis to mine is a completely invalid point right of the bat. I can see the validity in your timeframe analysis, but cannot in anway relate it to mine. This is one of the very first things taught when taking classes (or reading books) about TA. As far as your statement about your channel being exactly right, that is a false statement too. (based on CMT standards) If my charts are intepreted as bearish to you, then thats how your reading them or thats what the charts say not me. I don't control the charts I just interpret what they tell me based on what the NYIF (CMT) courses teach. If I may recommend a book, you may want to read:


Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications
by John J. Murphy

Maybe that could clear up and explain why your rebutal is invalid. Also, TA is not an exact science, which is also explained in that book.

Also the reason I posted those charts is because people on the board have said they appreciate my charts, TA, etc. If you don't agree with them I would suggest you may just past them up.


Not sure why you always fight me tooth and nail, but it is really not an issue with me.

Hope that will help.

[mtm]

To add to the above since MM's trades are not usually qualified as a "Swing Trade" (3 to 5 days) a short-term swing trade TA analysis does not seem valid for me to be posting.

[skiracer]

We're here to discuss what we post. If I misconstrued your diagram and took it for a channel it was because that's what it looks like to me and you gave no explanation of what you were trying to illustrate. Can you blame a body for interpretating the chart as they see it if there is no accompanying text or explanation along with the chart. I was only stating what I saw from the illustration.
It wasn't my mission to offend you or to fight you tooth and nail but to offer some intelligent dialogue about your post.
I've read Murphy's book and all the other's worth reading, maybe twice, and subscribe to his Market Message daily alerts just because I feel he is an expert on the subject. I agree with you that T/A interpretation is pretty much up to each individual so you shouldn't take it to heart when someone questions the validity of your analysis or charts or disagrees with what your interpretation is or isn't. I do enjoy your posts and charts an believe me when I say that I'm not fighting you or picking on you for any reason other than good dialogue on what you post. When you post something here or anywhere you should be ready an able to handle any objective commentary especially if it's not derogatory or demeaning to you in any way. I'm sure that I have been a gentleman in what I've posted regardless of my agreeing or disagreeing with what you've posted. Maybe more of an explanation along with your chart analysis would help in avoiding this type of scenario. Keep posting your charts please. I do enjoy them and find them informative to some degree even without an accompanying text.

[mtm]

As I stated in post #89 clear as day! "LINE" not channel. Please read the thread before making assumptions. As far as being a "gentlemen" with your replies I as others would have to disagree. When it comes to technical analysis I wish I had the time to go into a very detailed explanation, but I don't. (have stated that before) If I did I would be teaching classes.

Here is another issue with homebuilders, the index is up against a major resistance line kind of like the S&P.

[skiracer]

Well ya know I think that you're just a bit to thin skinned an a little over sensitive to your analysis being questioned or even discussed for that matter. You're missing the point entirely. You should give that some thought. Another thing is that you should make the time to explain yourself regarding your expertise in T/A so that I an others could benefit from that. I find that a common excuse for ineptitude to be honest.

[mtm]

Ski,

Can we quit beating a dead horse? We obliously can't see eye to eye on most things.
If you want to know how my technical analysis works buy all the trading books you can find in the world and read them 50 times. I use so many methods it would make most traders head spin. No matter what I say, it will not fullfill your expectations and for that I can do absolutely nothing about. I am who I am and visa versa in regards to you. My post are what they are and if they don't fullfill your demands, requirements, expectaions or whatever you want to call it, just please bypass them. Or if I receive a handful of requests to quit posting because my post don't provide enough detail then I will just stop posting.

I am a simple person with simple explanations and I cannot be anymore for that is who I am!

[skiracer]

When you want to stop beating a dead horse all you have to do is stop beating it.
This went from a simple question regarding what I thought was a neat chart of yours to this point. I'll be giving your posts plenty of room to go by me in the future. Good luck with your trading.

[mrmarket]

I thought we were talking about nails and toilets....shows what I know.