KBH ==> The Hot and Humid Winner

[Hany]

S&P & Zacks

Here's what S&P had to say:

In light of the company's focus on first-time home buyers, its correspondingly lower average home prices, and its considerable international presence, the shares have typically traded at a modest discount to the peer average P/E. However, factoring in the relatively favorable earnings growth we expect, our 12-month target price of $90 reflects our belief that KBH will begin to trade at a modest premium in the coming year.

Here's what Zacks had to say:

Zacks rates KBH as Strong Buy: KBH earnings estimates for the year ending November 2005 climbed $1.21, or approximately 15%, over the past 90 trading days. In mid-June, the company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $2.06 per share, eclipsing last year's $1.20 and jumping ahead of the consensus estimate by almost 16%. Total revenues increased 36% year-over-year. The company said its outstanding second quarter performance underscores the strength of KB Home's geographically diverse operations.

[mrmarket]

these kind of stocks climb the theoretical "wall of worry" all the time. If there were absolutely no worry about a collapse in real estate prices, the homebuilders would have a PE multiple in the 20's, given their earnings successes over the last several years.

Does anyone really believe that the bubble will happen in the next several weeks, all of a sudden?

What happens is that people worry. The stocks stay cheap. Then a week goes by, and nothing bad happens, so the stock creeps up a little. This goes on and on and on.

Look at the chart, it tells the whole story. Doesn't it look exactly like what I have just described?

One thing is almost near certain with KBH. The earnings will be there next quarter.

[skiracer]

I feel bad for NB and his position in KBH but this thing consolidating or pulling back like this is going to setup a nice entry somewhere down the line when it bottoms from all of this. Just keep an eye on it and when it begins that move jump on board but this one could be a little volitaile so either physically watch it real close or set a stop at a comfortable support level after it bottoms and starts to move back up which I feel fairly certain it will do.
I just think you will have to let it seek it's own level from here. Nice bounce back this afternoon from the days lows. Must have caught the attention of some daytraders because they made 1 point from there to the closing price. Whenever it gets so cheap that it catches their attention you can see there is still interest in the stock. I would wait and look for something in the 76 range.

[B.J]

For all Candlestick readers, looks like a doji gapping down. This usually signals a reversal of sorts.

[mtm]

For all Candlestick readers, looks like a doji gapping down. This usually signals a reversal of sorts.

Looks like a sell to me. (VIA Candlesitck Analysis)

[New-born baby]

Market Worries

these kind of stocks climb the theoretical "wall of worry" all the time. If there were absolutely no worry about a collapse in real estate prices, the homebuilders would have a PE multiple in the 20's, given their earnings successes over the last several years.

Does anyone really believe that the bubble will happen in the next several weeks, all of a sudden?

What happens is that people worry. The stocks stay cheap. Then a week goes by, and nothing bad happens, so the stock creeps up a little. This goes on and on and on.

Look at the chart, it tells the whole story. Doesn't it look exactly like what I have just described?

One thing is almost near certain with KBH. The earnings will be there next quarter.

Yes, the stock is worth the money, but Wall Street always discounts stocks based on fear. Look at FRO. Here's a tanker stock paying about a 27% dividend, and it languishes down around $41-$42 all the time because people fear that the oil bubble will burst. India's and China's thirst for oil will soon eclipse even ours, but they fear the oil bubble will burst. So FRO continues to sell cheaply. Homebuilder stocks are in the same category. So we'll have to wait and see what happens.

[skiracer]

NB,
You're still holding the position. What was you entry again and how much % are you down at this point?

[New-born baby]

$82

NB,
You're still holding the position. What was you entry again and how much % are you down at this point?

My entry was $82. I don't even know what KBH finished at today, so I can't tell you how much % I am down. Less than 6% I think.
.
7% is around the $76, and it's headed there I think.

[diogenes]

For all Candlestick readers, looks like a doji gapping down. This usually signals a reversal of sorts.

Looks more like a spinning top, to me, which could lead up (46.93%) or down (47.93%) at least according to one back-test (Maiani). So, we will have to wait and see.
Assuming that it is a spinning top.

[B.J]

Looks more like a spinning top, to me, which could lead up (46.93%) or down (47.93%) at least according to one back-test (Maiani). So, we will have to wait and see.
Assuming that it is a spinning top.

Yeah, I guess it all depends on what tomorrow confirms.

[billyjoe]

Damn, got stopped out at 74.60 . Didn't see it coming at least not so soon.

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Damn, got stopped out at 74.60 . Didn't see it coming at least not so soon.

billyjoe

74.60 is potentially the low of day too. Tweezers on the 5 min. 74.60 a good double bottom potential intraday. If it fails, channel long on daily isn't far away.

EDIT: OK, it failed so looking for channel long area and pattern.

[spikefader]

Hey MM, fellow KBH lovers; I just joined you at 73.80!

[New-born baby]

Kbh

got stopped out at 74.60 . Didn't see it coming at least not so soon.

billyjoe

Good buy point according to the charts. Easy 15% from here.

Hey--NOTHING is easy in the markets.

[jiesen]

Hey--NOTHING is easy in the markets.

Couldn't agree more.