KBH ==> The Hot and Humid Winner

[Hany]

Tol

Folks,

TOL will release its numbers tomorrow.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Symbol=TOL

It's going to be great just like PHM, MTH and the rest of the lot. TOL is a quality HB and so is KBH with its diverse operations that should help it weather geographic weaknesses.

I'm looking forward to tomorrow.

Hany

[New-born baby]

You're right

Yeah, the numbers better be good, considering how strong the housing market's been the past few months. (and years!) Not that the stock of each homebuilder is directly linked to the earnings of every other homebuilder.

The most logical explanation for KBH dropping 2% in a day is either the down market or someone selling their stock for whatever reason. But I wouldn't try to get into a daily speculation of why the stock does what it does, just relax and wait for it to hit the 15% target and move on. That's the best way to avoid stressing yourself out. Maybe as a more "technical" trader it's hard for you to let go like that, though, so I understand your frustration...

Yeah, you're right. Today's a great day to turn off the streamer and do something else . On the technical side, KBH fell through support this morning! UGH!

Spike,
Here's a 10 cent chart. Just the monthly that shows my buy point: $82.00 even. The candlestick doesn't show the action during the day, but I bought a pullback on what I thought was a double bottom. She bounced up to $82.60, and then fell to finish down at $81.97. With other stocks on other days, I would have daytraded this out, jumping out at $82.60 or whenever the chart showed a downturn. But I had decided to ride this one for the MM 15%, so I stayed on board.


My plan: take the 15%, of course. No stop. That's right; I am trading this one and AMLN without any stops. Giving them room to breathe. Or collapse from lack of oxygen!

[spikefader]

Well your entry ain't bad really. You attempted the double bottom, great. It was down near gap support, this is good. It was after a recent channel long, this is good. What happened after your entry on a technically bad basis is the gap support didn't hold. That was in hindsight probably the place to put a stop. But if you decided to trade with no stop before opening the trade, then you're following the plan; the support didn't hold is all. But it was still a valid area to be taking it long. Sit back and enjoy the ride

[New-born baby]

Sit back and enjoy the ride

Should've never gotten on this momma.

[mrmarket]

the market will climb a wall of worry. People will wake up one day and realize that homebuilders are PRINTING money. Then they will move move move.

[df21084]

But in the meantime ....

.... this doesn't help:

DJ KB Home To Pay $2M Penalty On Alleged FTC Order Violation.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

August 03, 2005 17:17 ET (21:17 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 05 17 PM EDT 08-03-05


BTW ... I'm long KBH.

[billyjoe]

KBH earnings Sept 22nd before market opens. What do the analysts say? Will they beat the numbers? Will Mr.Market need a larger duffel bag for the $$.


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Time for a sermon

.... this doesn't help:

DJ KB Home To Pay $2M Penalty On Alleged FTC Order Violation.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
August 03, 2005 17:17 ET (21:17 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 05 17 PM EDT 08-03-05

Well that explains it. This news calls for a sermon. What I feel like tonight is somewhat like some will feel when they wake up in the eternal lake of fire: REGRET. They heard sermons. They had some concerned Christians speak to them about their soul, but they never received Christ as their Savior. And then it was too late.

I am kicking myself tonight for not using a stop on this one. This is the last time I buy without a exit strategy. I have IB as my broker now, so every purchase gets a trailing stop without exception.

Spike has written about stops often. I had some kind of an entry plan (on an intraday double bottom). At one time I could have cashed out at a profit. Now I get to regret not using the stop. A very expensive lesson. $3 a share, plus whatever tomorrow brings.

God can use this for good. If someone is reading this and has not yet trusted Christ alone for his salvation from sin and its penalty, let me urge you to call upon Christ to save you. "For whosoever shall call upon the Name of the Lord shall be saved." (Romans 10:13).

God bless you all.

[Runner]

NB just a simple technique I use. I will not enter a position with out using ETS or entry, target, and stop. I’ll begin with a hard stop just below a market structure low. Once I get a lead I’ll trail off a EMA. My first goal is to set stop at break even. This way if it doses not work out right nothing gained but nothing lost. You will feel more in control of your trade because you got a ETS plan. Sure you will get stopped but hey it happens to all who use stops, but you won’t get slammed unless a huge gap down occurs. Sure your target might get hit then you can scale out a percentage of your holdings and ride the rest. Managing our trades is what this is all about. After all it is our hard earned cash on the line. To many get one sided when the market pushes a strong leg up. This is when many get caught holding the bag because they did not have a plan.

I’m sure many other traders from this forum could give more methods how they handle a trade in progress...

[New-born baby]

Thanks Runner

Runner,
Many thanks! Will use your plan. And nice to see you posting a little more today. Did you take a few days vacation?

Here's my view of the KBH situation now:

Insiders have been dumping shares the last three days. They are not stupid.
Today, especially, just wears out the bulls. Don't look for a big charge tomorrow.

[Runner]

NB, I’ve been very busy this past week. I’ve got a few major home projects going on right now. One of then is putting in ceramic tile in my new sun room. I decided to take on that project myself and so this has me stretched out. My new sun rom is awesome. It has some high tech very expensive glass that keeps the room nice in cool. I also had the guys put in the duct work for the A/c and heat.

[skiracer]

Well that explains it. This news calls for a sermon. What I feel like tonight is somewhat like some will feel when they wake up in the eternal lake of fire: REGRET. They heard sermons. They had some concerned Christians speak to them about their soul, but they never received Christ as their Savior. And then it was too late.

I am kicking myself tonight for not using a stop on this one. This is the last time I buy without a exit strategy. I have IB as my broker now, so every purchase gets a trailing stop without exception.

Spike has written about stops often. I had some kind of an entry plan (on an intraday double bottom). At one time I could have cashed out at a profit. Now I get to regret not using the stop. A very expensive lesson. $3 a share, plus whatever tomorrow brings.

God can use this for good. If someone is reading this and has not yet trusted Christ alone for his salvation from sin and its penalty, let me urge you to call upon Christ to save you. "For whosoever shall call upon the Name of the Lord shall be saved." (Romans 10:13).

God bless you all.

NB,
I believe wholeheartedly in what you just stated but that has everything to go with living a decent christian life and nothing at all to do with trading stocks. It happens a large percentage of the time when someone makes the mistake of not putting a stop in place and then takes a big hit because of not doing so. Then the realization of how important a stop can be hits them and they do a 180 and like you stated promise to place a stop on every new trade they ever make again. The next thing you know they're getting stopped out of every trade they make. Then they become really confused about what they're doing and swear of stops again and the cycle continues. Not every trade you make is going to require you place a stop immediately or even requires a stop at all. What you have to realize an begin to control is what trades require a stop and when and where to place them. Doing that requires staying focused on the trade and what you are doing with that trade. Understanding when to place the stop and where takes alot of thought and experience working with them. They can be as detrimental as they can be positive if not used correctly. So get a grip on your emotions an instead of rushing into some action, which may not be what you really want or ought to do, give some serious thought to your predicament with this position and the overall effect it is going to have on your capital position and your trading strategys and discipline. Having done that with a clear head and knowing what your parameters are make a plan of how you're going to deal with it and do it. This might be a losing trade, but it's only money. Make the best of it by learning from it and read Spikes last treatise a few times and let it sink in about all the facets of the trade. You have most likely become a little over confident, somewhat complacent about the discipline, and forgotten that at any minute that you let the control of the trade get away from you this happens.
Anyway you still have your mental capacities, good health I presume, and your friends, family, and God still love you. Get a grip from this point and take control of the circumstances and deal with the trade like a professional. I'm sure you have that in you. And remember that this is a jungle and the minute you let your focus slip you'll get eaten.

[New-born baby]

Thanks Ski

Ski,

Yes, it is only money, and the market's money at that. But the bad thing is I am "helping" a 22 year old newly wed who are saving for their first home. No, no one is going to die over it, but I am kicking myself for sure.

I appreciate your advice about not over reacting. You have to give some trades a lot of breathing room. MM trades have that characteristic. They need a wider gap because one must hold them longer to get the 15%.

Thanks and God bless,

[skiracer]

Everytime I try to help someone out by advising them about stocks to buy to make a few bucks it never works out. I don't know why but it never does. Maybe you should just lend, give, or co-sign for them. It might be easier in the long run.
Wasn't chastising or lecturing you, maybe a little, but from a friends position. God will take care of you and them in his own way when he's ready. You know that.

MM's strategy and disciplines are much different than the short term approach which probably is why he is as successful as he is. He has the perserverance to outlast them through the difficult times, but the discipline to stay with his plan which he believes in 110%. That's the difference.

[Hany]

What's the deal?

Hello everyone,

I knew something was up with KBH over the last couple of days. This $2 M penalty has been decided since July 12th. This is old news.

I got worried about it and then had some doubts. How much revenue did KBH make last qtr? You wouldn't believe it but it was a whopping $2 Billion!!!

Do the math? That's 1/1000th of its revenue. If you had $100 in your hand, that'd be like taking a dime.

When MTH announced its results, it jumped 15% in 2 days. KBH is no less and in fact, it will jump up again. Earnings, earnings, earnings.

CME was under $200 not too long ago, it's over $300 today. Reflect over that but be patient and all else will follow, if God wills.