KBH ==> The Hot and Humid Winner

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • skiracer
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2004
    • 6314

    I'm not an expert in options strategy an I don't use them much except to stop the bleeding at times if I want to stay in a losing position to offset my loses or to leverage more shares for a cheaper price. You're late in doing this to start with but I'll give you my strategy from when the stock had fallen from your entry of around 82. When you entered the position your expectations were long and you never thought that it was going to drop much less drop to what it closed at today. I'm not going to lecture you and this is not meant to be that. First you should have set a stop and that stop should have calculated what risk you were open to and how much you could afford to lose on the trade. If it hit the stop your out and that's that and you move on taking the minimum loss you could afford. But on occassion for whatever reasons you go past what should have been your exit and now what should you do. You either exit and eat the loss or if you think there is some chance the stock will rebound in the next day or few days but you're not quite sure you can take out an insurance policy by buying some puts on the stock.
    This is a capture of todays call and put option chain for KBH. I can't use the numbers that would have suited you when the stock was 77/78 range because we're way past that now so the example will have to be done with the numbers that are for today but the logic behind the manuever is the same just different numbers.


    You want to buy an out of the money put that is going to be moving towards being in the money if the stock continues to drop farther down. The farther out of the money and (out of the money meaning anything on the option chain which is a lower price than what the stock is selling for or closed at today) and the time element is also an important factor (how far out the expiration date of the option is; Sept/Oct/Jan etc.) because both of these will be a determining factor in the price of the option. So if you look at the option chain you'll see that Sept 05 is in black and that is the expiration date we are using in this example and what time frame all the strike prices are based on in our example.
    So if you had, for this example only, entered at $ 74/75 range and it dropped to 72.45 and you wanted some insurance against it going lower you would buy some Sept 05 65 strike price puts for $1.10 per share or $110 per 100 share contract and if the stock continues to go drop lower the puts would increase proportionally in value as the stock dropped.
    If you had 100 share of the stock at $74 = $7400 invested.
    If you bought 5 contracts for $110 per 100 share contract = $550.00
    Total invested = $7400.00 for the stock
    550.00 for the options

    Total invested = $7950.00
    If the stock goes down to $70.00 you're out $400.00. 100 shares - $4.00 per share =$400.00. But the options will have increased in value as the stock declined in value to say $2.50 per share or $250.00 per contract x 5 contracts = $1250.00 - $550.00 original cost of the 5 option contracts = $750.00 gain on the options contracts. You now have recouped the original $400.00 loss on the stock trade and made a profit of $350.00 overall on the whole shabang.
    That is how it works in theory as an example. I'm not sure how much the options would increase in value, I used $2.50 from $1.10 as the stock dropped to the $70.00 range but it could be less but regardless the play would have been insurance and you certainly would have at least guaranteed that you would have broken even or made a few sheckles and not lost money. I simplified it for you but that is one way to do it.
    The most opportune time to do it would have been when the stock was at $77/78 range and bought the Sept 05 $70 put. The you would have most likely made money. If the stock goes back up you basically get back to even as the option expires worthless or somewhat less than what you bought it for but you recoup the losses from the stock dropping if it goes back up.
    Always have a plan and assess your risk. How much you can afford to lose and set a stop and honor it. You cannot call yourself a trader or give anyone else advice if you cannot do that for yourself. From a friend.
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

    Comment

    • New-born baby
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 6095

      Thanks, Ski

      Thank you, Ski. I have never bought puts; only covered calls. Your post tells me that I need to study option stategies. This lesson (KBH's drop) will go to that end.

      As for giving advice, I can give advice. Anybody can give advice. I didn't think ignorance stop anybody. I never kept me from opening my mouth! My advice just may not be good advice, that's all. .

      Thank you, Ski!
      Last edited by New-born baby; 08-08-2005, 08:55 PM.
      pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

      Comment


      • NB, you gave me great advice on SCHN. Hey I’ve had my share of blunders that would blow your mind, but we learn from them. I needed those huge mistakes to keep me humble. If all my trades where huge winners. I might get head strung. Find what works for Newborn and then keep refining it to make it better. People don’t plan to fail they just simply fail to plan. I believe this is true in life as well as the markets.

        Comment

        • New-born baby
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 6095

          Mcd

          Yeah, Runner, but I gave you bad advice on MCD. You made money, but not as much as you should have. I should have kept the old 'trap' shut on that one .
          pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

          Comment

          • casinoboy3

            Down about 15% now on KBH and BMHC..... doesn't look like its hit bottom yet, but like MM, I'm holding. I'm thankful for the quick 15% I got on SNHY and TOL (ahem, limit orders!), back to where I started though after these two..... we'll see what happens...

            Comment


            • NB, I’d say you need to continue to give advice. Hey being wrong is part of this game. I’m wrong many times, but I try to analyze what they heck I just did. NB, everyone will be wrong. Once we enter a position the only thing we have control over is the exit. Something this simple has paralyzed many traders.

              I was wrong big time on JNPR. I did get out with a small profit, but the trade did not go the way I thought it would. Toppy markets has taught me to lock it in for a break even or small profit. But hey we are all here to learn and become better traders...

              Comment


              • SKI Wrote:
                Always have a plan and assess your risk. How much you can afford to lose and set a stop and honor it. You cannot call yourself a trader or give anyone else advice if you cannot do that for yourself. From a friend.


                ski, I thought you said before you don't use stops? I bet these few words makes NB feel great.
                Last edited by Guest; 08-08-2005, 09:40 PM.

                Comment

                • New-born baby
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 6095

                  I feel great!

                  Thanks, Runner, but I feel great!
                  pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                  Comment

                  • skiracer
                    Senior Member
                    • Dec 2004
                    • 6314

                    Runner,
                    I never said that I don't use stops. I believe what I said was that on many occassions when I first enter a position an having assessed the trade and strategy beforehand I won't place a stop initially because I'm always leery about being away from the computer and getting stopped out on some pullback or market maker taking out as many as he can before the trade gets a chance to develope. My exit strategy is a maximum 7% loss an if it goes to that I'm out 95% of the time. On occassion, like all of us, I have let it go past the 7% point an have found myself in New-Born's position. I'm usually there in front of the screen watching my positions so it's nothing to exit physically an alot of times if I don't like the way the trade is developing I'll exit much earlier if I think it's going to go to 7% to save a few % points.

                    My usuall practice is to get some gain built in before I set the stop to guarantee that I protect the gains. But I always use stops whether it's by physically doing it myself while keeping an eye on the screen or setting a prearranged stop.

                    I can't believe that anyone is taking my post the wrong way. I never intended to embarrass or belittle New-Born or to make him stop giving advice about stocks. Christ he asked me for the info an I spent a some time explaining how I would have done it. Spike gave him the same advice when it was at 77/78 and now it's at 72.45 and he's still in the position. I was just trying to impress upon him the importance of a game plan going into any trade and that includes some prearranged exit strategy. Any short term trader will agree on that point. I wish I had a friend or someone who cared enough to be as blunt an as straightforward with me initially. It took me along time and plenty of cash before it sank in an I learned.

                    New-Born please don't take that last statement the wrong way about the advice. It was never meant to stop you from giving advice or analysis. If that was what I wanted to say believe me I would have said it much more explicitly. I can't make you feel better about losing money and I don't want to do that anyway. I would much rather impress how important something is to a friend and to help in that respect than to enable someone an have them keep repeating the same scenario over an over again. I did that for a long time. Hopefully you won't have to.
                    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                    Comment


                    • No problem it is fine with NB. I just thought maybe a more professional approach would have been a private message instead of broadcasting out loud on the forum..

                      I follow your stop rule SKI and now that you have mentioned it I do remember you stating this somewhere in the past. Hey great job in preparing the options talk.

                      Comment

                      • skiracer
                        Senior Member
                        • Dec 2004
                        • 6314

                        Well in retrospect I think you're right Runner. A private message would have been more appropriate. But in all honesty I would never try to maliciously hurt or embarrass him or anyone here. In my heart I know it's all good an I think NB knows that too. Thanks Runner.
                        THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                        Comment

                        • spikefader
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 7175

                          On the lighter side of things though guys, and just for some grins, don't stops just drive you nuts. You look like an idiot when you use them, and then an idiot when you don't! haha

                          You'll use them and get stopped out only to see price turn and go your way, and when you don't use them you lose agonizing percentages!

                          Stops will sure start a debate as quick as politics at the dinner table. Some people are conservatives with them, others are left-wing radicals like me.

                          MM hates them, I love them, and I'm sure millions don't know what to think of them. But I can tell you this: I'm fairly certain Newborn and a majority of the short-term traders here would have preferred 3 attempted perfect KBH entries with 4% risked and stopped out each time than this one big 12% drop.

                          And if it drops to $60 and it turns to a -27% loss, it'll be the same comparison; one dumb trade or 7 attempted perfect entries each with 4% stop loss each time...

                          I think it's great that NBB is so prepared to go out on a limb and reflect and discuss it. Many would want to run and hide, and he wins respect by being transparent, and so open to ideas and opinions. He is posting charts showing the worst case scenario and saying he's learning from all this, and that's awesome. Free education to all the lurkers. And I'll betcha they don't learn it until they do it themselves!!

                          It's all about the stop. Being between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea. It's all about defining your maximum pain, and planning for it.....or being recklessly abandoned in the face of a disaster only because you can afford to, you're nuts, you're extremely diversed and it doesn't matter, or your reputation ain't on the line! lol

                          And I think we should all take all advice and instruction offered on this board with a grain of salt and full due diligence and acceptance that one opinion thrown out there is just one angle of it. I think we can all do that without getting our feathers ruffled. And that's despite any animosity or negative feelings I've had toward certain posters here or any other board. There are always gonna be people that are opposite poles to others and some people just don't gel. I think the trick is to spot those people and discretely avoid them! haha The other trick is to spot the really ignorant people out there, and fade their opinions!! haha just kidding. I say people are only ignorant if they don't post questions and comments that seek the truth. The truth IS out there; and a combined group of smart cats like us can surely put the spotlight on some of it! It just might take a while! lol

                          Comment

                          • mrmarket
                            Administrator
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 5971

                            Originally posted by spikefader
                            On the lighter side of things though guys, and just for some grins, don't stops just drive you nuts. You look like an idiot when you use them, and then an idiot when you don't! haha

                            You'll use them and get stopped out only to see price turn and go your way, and when you don't use them you lose agonizing percentages!

                            Stops will sure start a debate as quick as politics at the dinner table. Some people are conservatives with them, others are left-wing radicals like me.

                            MM hates them, I love them, and I'm sure millions don't know what to think of them. But I can tell you this: I'm fairly certain Newborn and a majority of the short-term traders here would have preferred 3 attempted perfect KBH entries with 4% risked and stopped out each time than this one big 12% drop.

                            And if it drops to $60 and it turns to a -27% loss, it'll be the same comparison; one dumb trade or 7 attempted perfect entries each with 4% stop loss each time...

                            I think it's great that NBB is so prepared to go out on a limb and reflect and discuss it. Many would want to run and hide, and he wins respect by being transparent, and so open to ideas and opinions. He is posting charts showing the worst case scenario and saying he's learning from all this, and that's awesome. Free education to all the lurkers. And I'll betcha they don't learn it until they do it themselves!!

                            It's all about the stop. Being between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea. It's all about defining your maximum pain, and planning for it.....or being recklessly abandoned in the face of a disaster only because you can afford to, you're nuts, you're extremely diversed and it doesn't matter, or your reputation ain't on the line! lol

                            And I think we should all take all advice and instruction offered on this board with a grain of salt and full due diligence and acceptance that one opinion thrown out there is just one angle of it. I think we can all do that without getting our feathers ruffled. And that's despite any animosity or negative feelings I've had toward certain posters here or any other board. There are always gonna be people that are opposite poles to others and some people just don't gel. I think the trick is to spot those people and discretely avoid them! haha The other trick is to spot the really ignorant people out there, and fade their opinions!! haha just kidding. I say people are only ignorant if they don't post questions and comments that seek the truth. The truth IS out there; and a combined group of smart cats like us can surely put the spotlight on some of it! It just might take a while! lol
                            What it boils down to is that people are all differnet. We are not robot replicas. Having said that , we all have our different risk criteria. Some of us like rock climbing and roller coasters. Others like casinos and eating spicy food. All of these differences mean that we can't be expected to behave the same way when it comes to investing our money.

                            Let's learn from each other's line of thinking. My investing philosophy has been shaped my many years of observation and then application of what "feels" right for me.

                            There's lots of ways to make money without crossing our own respective danger zones of risk taking. Onward...
                            =============================

                            I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                            - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                            Comment

                            • spikefader
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 7175

                              I'm liking that inverted SHS on the 5 day chart. 71.50 gap support held nicely several times that day! I think it's a safe run to 78 gap resistance now.

                              Comment

                              • New-born baby
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 6095

                                Kbh

                                Originally posted by spikefader
                                I'm liking . . .KBH short.
                                I think KBH is headed South again. She's sitting on support right now, and one more straw, and the camel's back is going to break.
                                pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X