100% return in 4 months!

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  • Lyehopper
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2004
    • 3678

    100% return in 4 months!

    After keeping score on the POTW for the past two weeks and participating in it for the past several, I have come to realize that the stock picking talent is tremendous here.... yes downright HUGE! Keep this fact (and the POTW) in mind as you read on.

    I was sitting here figuring up a few things based on the POTW's average gains (for the top preforming competitors) over several weeks. I've come to the conclusion that a 5% per week gain (average) is not too far-fetched, if you remove the suicide "throw the dice" gamblers picks from the mix.... it's actually pretty easy to average 5%+ per week....

    Now if you could grow a portfolio by 5% per week and reinvest 100% of the gain you could double your money in less than 4 months!!!! and if you started off with $100k you could easily turn it into over one million dollars within one year (using no margin)!

    The following exercise should be profitable to all here!!!!

    Here's where the POTW comes in. I would like to keep score for the next four months.... as I will be compiling data as to what players really know their stuff.... I would love to see a minimum of 15 players here per week including $$$Mr Market$$$ and Karel..... HEY! It's just one stupid post per week dudes COME ON!!!!

    I would like to incourage everyone who has ever played the POTW or more importantly ever WON it to follow this thread and enter a "top" pick every week..... That's BillyJoes POTW thread.... You have anytime before the market close each Monday to enter your BEST single pick....

    DID YOU HEAR ME!!!!.... Webs, DMK, NBB, Dru, Runner, Thomrich, etc? WE NEED YOU TO PLAY THIS STUPID CONTEST WEEKLY.... Why? Not so much to win (but that's nice, ain't it Ski) but to allow ME to scientifically build a portfolio.... based on the best players picks.... And I'll post exactly what I'm doing right here AS the next few weeks unfold....

    AGAIN.... It's important that the top pickers (ESPECIALLY) follow my new thread.... AND play the POTW weekly with solid, well researched picks. One pick only.... NO bb stocks and hopefully stocks with average daily volume approaching 100k shares as I'll really be trading these picks.... Remember the goal is a minimum of 5% per week average gain.

    Here's what I entend to do.... I will take $100k and invest it in these picks at my discression.... and "we" will (as a group) discuss and use TA and FA to qualify the picks for the portfolio. I will manage the portfolio and trade in and out of the picks as I see fit, but I'll ask for your guidance and opinions. I will post everything I do right here for all to see and I'll track the gain for all to see. If you see a dangerous error in my trades please post your opinion(s) here....

    I expect to make these 5% average gains in Bull, Bear or "Steer" markets so SHORT SELLING picks ARE a must when appropriate. I hope NOT to expose more than 30% of the funds to any one pick AND I WILL BE USING MARGIN for this exercise. I may keep a portion in cash from time to time as well.

    Now by next November (2006) I hope to be posting that this Portfolio is worth over $1 million and we'll have this huge party at my place.... Cook a fat yearling steer, eat some GoJi's, drink some brandy, ect.lol
    Last edited by Lyehopper; 11-12-2005, 08:52 PM.
    BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!
  • billyjoe
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 9014

    #2
    Lyehopper,
    I think your proposal is very likely to succeed. I've got a record of all the winning pickers for 42 previous contests. Would you like me to private message you? Wouldn't want to embarrass anyone especially myself although it doesn't take into account how many contests each person has been involved in. No one can match my record , no wins , no last place finishes. Can only recall one POTW where the winner lost money although he certainly beat the market that week. How about the top 10 best records ? Let me know.


    billyjoe

    Comment

    • Lyehopper
      Senior Member
      • Jan 2004
      • 3678

      #3
      I knew you'd be the 1st post here!

      Originally posted by billyjoe
      Lyehopper,
      I think your proposal is very likely to succeed. I've got a record of all the winning pickers for 42 previous contests. Would you like me to private message you? Wouldn't want to embarrass anyone especially myself although it doesn't take into account how many contests each person has been involved in. No one can match my record , no wins , no last place finishes. Can only recall one POTW where the winner lost money although he certainly beat the market that week. How about the top 10 best records ? Let me know.

      billyjoe
      Man that would be GREAT! Send me any data you have. AND 1st place winners aren't necessarily consistant ALL the time either. I know I've finished 1st a few times but just look at me this week! AWEFULL!!!!

      So what's YOUR average gain over the past 42 weeks BillyJoe?.... Info like that will be helpfull too. Has the "big guy" or Karel ever played? and.... what the hell happened to Drutzen? That dude was on fire when I first came here, averaging 15% a week sometimes!
      BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

      Comment

      • IIC
        Senior Member
        • Nov 2003
        • 14938

        #4
        Pretty easy to get 5% a week???...I don't think so...My goal is 2% a week compounded...I have only heard from one hedge fund in the past 5 years who was interested in talking to me...not as a trader...as a researcher...I'm thinking about it...But no way I'm telling 'em 5% a week...That is ludicrous IMO...If anyone can make 5% a week...they don't need anyone else..IIC
        "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

        Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

        Follow Me On Twitter

        Comment

        • billyjoe
          Senior Member
          • Nov 2003
          • 9014

          #5
          Lye,
          Message sent I hope.

          billyjoe

          Comment

          • jiesen
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2003
            • 5319

            #6
            Yeah, Dru is the best, hands down. He's probably run off to some tropical island, and is happily enjoying his tremendous gains.

            Comment

            • Lyehopper
              Senior Member
              • Jan 2004
              • 3678

              #7
              Originally posted by IIC
              Pretty easy to get 5% a week???...I don't think so...My goal is 2% a week compounded...I have only heard from one hedge fund in the past 5 years who was interested in talking to me...not as a trader...as a researcher...I'm thinking about it...But no way I'm telling 'em 5% a week...That is ludicrous IMO...If anyone can make 5% a week...they don't need anyone else..IIC
              You don't fully understand my scientific system yet Doug. Plus my MO is "the more ludicrous" the better.

              The whole point is.... You CAN"T freakin do it alone!!!! Thus the POTW players!

              Hey Doug, You are a key player in this exercise dude. According to the data I've compiled thus far.... you are a top (consistant) player with above average results in the contest. PLUS.... You have several #1 finishes.

              Hey, I researched, bought and made good money on URBN last week (your POTW pick) and I still hold 6.5k shares.... YOU pick em and I (and the "staff") will trade em "properly".... Proper Entry.... Proper Exit.... And I'll track the results and post them here....



              PS.... Great CC from URBN was it not?
              BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

              Comment

              • billyjoe
                Senior Member
                • Nov 2003
                • 9014

                #8
                Lye,
                I don't doubt the top picker each week will average over 5% , but we never know who that will be until the contest is several days along. Probably no clear pattern will appear until Wednesday each week.


                billyjoe

                Comment

                • Lyehopper
                  Senior Member
                  • Jan 2004
                  • 3678

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jiesen
                  Yeah, Dru is the best, hands down. He's probably run off to some tropical island, and is happily enjoying his tremendous gains.
                  Yep he has a high percentage of 1st place wins with a low participation percentage. Wish he's come on back. Maybe someone could send him a private message and get him to participate again.

                  BTW Jiesen.... You have the most #1 finishes of all the players dude! YOU ROCK!!!!

                  Problem is: you also have several last place high percentage losses.lol

                  To make this portfolio work out you've gotta lay off those "Hail Mary" picks and pick some consistant, high quality 5-10% gainers and forget those 50% bb stocks. You gotta do it for the sake of the GoJi operation dude.... Remember: I need some capitol for that truck load of plants dude.hehehehehe
                  BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                  Comment

                  • Lyehopper
                    Senior Member
                    • Jan 2004
                    • 3678

                    #10
                    Originally posted by billyjoe
                    Lye,
                    I don't doubt the top picker each week will average over 5% , but we never know who that will be until the contest is several days along. Probably no clear pattern will appear until Wednesday each week.

                    billyjoe
                    Who says I'll be trading the portfolio exactly as the contest is played. Plus I'll be holding 4-10 stocks in the portfolio at any given time.... The contest is simply to compile excellent picks and see which players have above average returns. A higher percentage (of funds) might be invested in a 70% players pick one week for example.... I might even play a pick from several weeks ago if the TA says to.... Or hold one like URBN longer term.... Or go 80% into cash if market conditions dictate.... Truuuuust me, this thing will evolve. Heck-fire!!!! Spike nor Ski have even posted yet.... Wait till they put their heads into this deal. I can see it man.... This will work.
                    BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Very interesting idea you got here Lye. I think 30% on a position is a little steep. What will your criteria be for entry and exit? Most of the POT’s appear to be a random entry of a stock in a known trend. You got a 60% chance of winning when you enter in the direction of the trend. I’ve been using random entries with some pretty awesome results lately. The key is not to micro manage and follow your plan.

                      Seriously thought 30% exposure could get ya in trouble IMO. But anyway this does sound interesting.

                      Comment

                      • Lyehopper
                        Senior Member
                        • Jan 2004
                        • 3678

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Runner
                        Very interesting idea you got here Lye. I think 30% on a position is a little steep. What will your criteria be for entry and exit? Most of the POT’s appear to be a random entry of a stock in a known trend. You got a 60% chance of winning when you enter in the direction of the trend. I’ve been using random entries with some pretty awesome results lately. The key is not to micro manage and follow your plan.

                        Seriously thought 30% exposure could get ya in trouble IMO. But anyway this does sound interesting.
                        OK Runner.... That is a bit risky ain't it.... You help me set the criteria dude. What % would you expose to a single security?

                        Great to hear from you btw.
                        BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Lye, it depends on your risk tolerance. How much risk are you willing to take? Each stock I trade has a different amount risked. I also use the market as a gauge to set my risk. Why would one load up when the Indices might be hitting resistance and the possibility of a pull back is imminent? Right now with current conditions of this market I’ll not bet more then 1%. Sounds crazy does it not? But we all do things differently and we all have different perspectives of the markets….

                          Here is something you might find interesting. You put the data in the box and see what size position. I toy with it but have not used it..http://www.tradestars.com/position-sizing.asp

                          Great Idea you got here!

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            #14
                            Lye,
                            I know you didn't ask me but I've been thinking about this for a long time and trying to apply it to my personal portfolio. Wouldn't you know it , Mr.Market's 14 positions with a 7.15% risk per individual stock seems just about right. Put in your stops and possible losses would be miniscule per individual pick and if the picks are outstanding think of the gain/loss ratio. For me there will be no more "killer" losses except for the rare after hours trading that might get me.

                            billyjoe

                            Comment

                            • Lyehopper
                              Senior Member
                              • Jan 2004
                              • 3678

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Runner
                              Lye, it depends on your risk tolerance. How much risk are you willing to take? Each stock I trade has a different amount risked. I also use the market as a gauge to set my risk. Why would one load up when the Indices might be hitting resistance and the possibility of a pull back is imminent? Right now with current conditions of this market I’ll not bet more then 1%. Sounds crazy does it not? But we all do things differently and we all have different perspectives of the markets….

                              Here is something you might find interesting. You put the data in the box and see what size position. I toy with it but have not used it..http://www.tradestars.com/position-sizing.asp

                              Great Idea you got here!
                              No it doesn't sound crazy.... The problem most of us have is not knowing when to just sit on the sidelines in cash.

                              Tell me more Runner.... How did you calculate your current 1% risk tolerance. And tell me this: When YOU realize a gain what percentage of that gain do you actually keep (on average) annually. OR.... In other words.... What percentage of your gains do you give back because of actively trading when you should be sitting on cash?
                              BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                              Comment

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