100% return in 4 months!

[Lyehopper]

don't discount your own abilities....

While this might be fun, I doubt the practical value. And as IIC mentions: 5% per week is hardly realistic... I am not a 5% per week investor, not even a 2% per week investor. I am a laid back investor, watching with interest threads with intraday entries and exits, but those are not for me. Generally, I'll wait until one of my limit trades is triggered, and then I wake up. Kind a like fishing with a bell. Mr. Market just goes out and plays golf, and doesn't even dream of using a bell. Now there is laid back for you.

My personal aim is rather in the 5% per quarter ballpark. That is more realistic for my style of investing. And I am not a good stock picker. The Mr. Market Method made me a more confident (and successful) stock picker, but that is as far as it goes.

I am just the guy with the oil can and the dirty piece of cloth who tries to keep this website running smoothly.

Regards,

Karel

And Why do you discount the fine members abilities here Karel?.... Would a stock pick per week be too much to ask for from you or Ernie?... I suspect you're better at this than you let on man.... Plus Ernie says he's not really a golfer on his personal web site.... HE's just a stock market Junkie like the freakin rest of us here dude!

Karel, I'm sure in 1900 you'd be the one saying.... Why try that Orville? Hey Wilbur! talk some sence into your brother would ya!.... Why would man need to fly? "While this venture might be fun".... "I doubt the practical value" of flying.... We have strong wagons and fine draft horses here! They are comfortable.... It's a "laid back" form of transportation too, Plus I get to watch my horse poop as I drive along.... it's GREAT!....that flying thingy.... just not "REALISTIC"....lol

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/8728/wright0iw.png

All I'm asking for is ONE solid pick per week posted to the POTW thread. Is that also not REALISTIC Karel, not practical?.... I'll keep the score and tell how good you really are dude.

[Lyehopper]

No you missed my point. I was just using an arbitrary number such as 10 to show what I was talking about. I would divide the total funding in a specific number of segments, the 10 was for if there were 10 players each week, but that number could be any number that you are comfortable with. I wouldn't think that putting up 30% into any one position, regardless of how strong you felt about it, would be sensible so I thought that 10% per position might be more feasible. If there were 10 players each week I don't think you would feel comfortable putting up a full position with each pick either because you will certainly feel better about some players and their picks than others. So try to find a reasonable % to put into each position regardless of the stocks price and play as many of the picks as you feel confident with or like to the extent to do so. My feelings are that you have to set a specific sizing or money amount that you will spend on each position. The $100000/10 positions was just an example. 10 % seems reasonable to me but it's your money and you should do what is good for you. I just think that a plan and limit per full position is the way to go.
Lye, I hope you do become extremely successful at this but I have been at it for 30 years or so and lost more than most people will accumulate over those years between gambling and investing. What Spike an I have been saying about a specific plan and discipline is the only true path to Nirvana. It took me along time to evolve into that an you're lucky to be getting the info early on an for free.

I'm hearin ya Ski.... I've been investing in the market since 1988 so I've also lost my share of money.... I'm not a reckless investor.

I gotta go.... family obligations. I'll pick this back up tonight. THANKS GUYS!

Get those picks READY!

[Runner]

Lye, you sure are all fired up about this I have not been following the POTW and would be interested in what the average cost per stock played. Just A ballpark figure no need to figure exact prices. How many under 10.00? how many under 5.00? How many over 10.00? You get what I mean…

[Runner]

I’d be willing to state that the vast huge winners were in the under 10 group and had a few nice spikes during the week, but sounds to me as if the POTW is a sprint instead or a marathon. Now playing these fewer than 10.00 stocks works both ways and just as quickly the profits come your potential for disaster is about the same. I could be wrong in my thinking though

[Lyehopper]

Lye, I’ve been in cash for a while.......

I’ve met my goal this year as far as my profit target and really it was with only a handful of trades that did that and the fact that I did not MICRO MANAGE them. MY biggest winners to date are NGAS, OMNI, SWIR, ROC, MTRX, LPX, IRIS

Runner.... You are a key player in the success of this portfolio. I love your angle.... I like your willingness to change up in your thinking and patterns. I like your discipline, your ability to hold cash and "sit out".... Waiting, stalking that perfect opportunity.

Looking forward to your POTW picks dude!

I'm checking out the info you suggested too,thanks!

[spikefader]

...you are a much better player than me (right now)
Example: If your points score is 150 and mine is 75....

Yeah, but what I'm impressed with is the fact that you've already won 3 titles in a shorter time period than the rest of us . Tiger Woods at aged 12 is what you are hehe Great performance dude.

I'd be interested in seeing the averages of everyone. billyjoe sent me a partial total sheet, but averages is the other thing I'm interested in seeing. Don't all you guys also want to know this stuff?? I've only won 2 titles and haven't a clue how my average is relative to the pack. Maybe it's pitiful and I should hush up, after all, my style is very different from regular pick and hold all week mentality.

I think more recently, when rules have been more fluid, I've done a whole lot better. But regardless, the averages would be nice to contemplate, and I'm sure it'll only motivate us even more. It's that competitive edge, the X factor, that's a very good thing to focus on. The best in people really does comes out when in healthy competition; and people have that extra drive and focus. But we're all different, and while some get the X factor from the desire to win for the sake of winning, others might not get the X factor until they have to save face hehe

And that might well apply to me! haha What started as fun and wanting to participate in the game despite my style being so different from buy and hold, turned into a game dominated by the likes of great pickers jiesen, IIC, Drutz and ski (and now your good self) - showing the world how one should perform by delivering the wins on a consistent basis. That only helps to drive me to modify my scanning and analysis to spot movers that will rack up a few wins and stay competitive.

So at the risk of embarrassing, I say post the averages and see who needs to lift their game on that front too. I mean you're putting money on the line, and you want to modify game behavior and reduce the downside risk. As you said, it's about having desire to win, but staying green at the same tim. So losing that gambing 'it's-only-a-game-and-downside-doesn't-really-hurt-me" mentality. And I say all this with no idea of what the averages really are, but maybe those averages would start to improve, i.e. future performance improve by educating us all on what the averages are. But then again, Lye, maybe we should just focus on going forward. But sometimes you don't know where you're going until you look at where you've been...

And personally, where have I been? I forget! lol But seriously, I'm usually serious when picking, although I have a brainfart every now and then, like TOTG the other week, that was just crazy. Was an aweful chart that was heavy up top and yet I picked it hoping the gap would fill and hold and it didn't, and becuz I had to hold it all week it dribbled down to an embarrassing negative %. It's brain-toots like that will affect averages, and I'm sure others have been in the same situation. That's why I love tight stops dude. I like to limit the downside, and the upside will take care of the averages. And that's what you'll have to really work out dude. I'm with (EDIT: ski), great post back there dude; when $ is on the line and emotion is in there, combined with the fact that picks you hate are going to perform well, and your selection method and risk management might not fit at all with that X factor you're wanting to step up and take the port to success. See, if you mess with the X factor, not really knowing where it resides in the competition at any one time, then how can you get the benefit of it? You might be using your Y factor that is in opposition to the X factor. Port allocation to winners/strong players makes sense to me, but is it capturing the X factor of the next dominant player who is motivated to win becuz he's behind on number of titles by an embarrassing margin?? That's why the X factor IS the X factor....it's inexplicable! hehe

Sorry for windy post dude.

[RL]

Yes Spike I would like very much to see everyones finishes I have not one since the Inception of this contest. like to know how I stand with the darts just for the heck of It.

[Karel]

And Why do you discount the fine members abilities here Karel?.... [...]

For the exceedingly simple reason that investing is such a very soft 'science' compared to aeronautics. And for the equally simple reason that in 1899 flying was very much "in the air": lots of people were working on it, and several of them succeeded, or delivered a significant contribution, f.e.:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustave_Whitehead

which would make any denunciation of Wilbur Wright's 1899 statement laughable, and not only in retrospect.

And there is also the very obvious reason that 5% weekly compounded will defeat itself, but then, having so much money that you no longer can manage that goal, is success in itself.

But very importantly: I don't object to the effort. I even don't object to offering a pick once a week. It is just that those picks generally don't make 5% in a week. That is not underestimating myself, that is a statement of fact. Those results reflect a style of investing, which I feel comfortable with. It just doesn't seem to be what you need.

And most importantly: An overextended claim may do damage, and to add that this claim is the only way to value the excellent members of this forum sufficiently may be more insulting than a word of caution.

Regards,

Karel

[IIC]

Yes Spike I would like very much to see everyones finishes I have not one since the Inception of this contest. like to know how I stand with the darts just for the heck of It.

RL...Please grab a 6 pack and go back through the Picks thread and tally it all up for us...I'll be back in an hour to see what you came up with...Thanks...IIC

[Lyehopper]

For the exceedingly simple reason that investing is such a very soft 'science' compared to aeronautics. And for the equally simple reason that in 1899 flying was very much "in the air": lots of people were working on it, and several of them succeeded, or delivered a significant contribution, f.e.:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustave_Whitehead

which would make any denunciation of Wilbur Wright's 1899 statement laughable, and not only in retrospect.

And there is also the very obvious reason that 5% weekly compounded will defeat itself, but then, having so much money that you no longer can manage that goal, is success in itself.

But very importantly: I don't object to the effort. I even don't object to offering a pick once a week. It is just that those picks generally don't make 5% in a week. That is not underestimating myself, that is a statement of fact. Those results reflect a style of investing, which I feel comfortable with. It just doesn't seem to be what you need.

And most importantly: An overextended claim may do damage, and to add that this claim is the only way to value the excellent members of this forum sufficiently may be more insulting than a word of caution.

Regards,

Karel

Just pick a freakin stock for the POTW Karel.... Sheesh!

And try a little harder wouldya.... I can tell by your post you ain't a rooky! Time will tell if my idea has substance.... Gotta play the contest with your best picks for me to gather the necessary data to devise a solid plan and portfolio dude!
JUST PLAY THE CONTEST THAT"S ALL I ASK!!!!

[Karel]

... JUST PLAY THE CONTEST THAT"S ALL I ASK!!!!

OK, OK!

[Lyehopper]

Huge!

OK, OK!

THANKS Karel!.... Now see if you can "sway" the "HUGE" ONE to participate. His fans are waiting with "bated breath" for his pick.... Well.... MINE is "baited" anyway.... Had sardines for beakfast.

[Karel]

"Sway" Ernie? Who do you think I am, the Hulk? Even then I would think twice (if possible; the Hulk is not noted for his intelligence). I think $$$Mr. Market$$$ is man enough to make his own decisions. You could PM him to get his attention.

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

OK.... CALLING ALL $$$MM$$$ Fans!!!!

"Sway" Ernie? Who do you think I am, the Hulk? Even then I would think twice (if possible; the Hulk is not noted for his intelligence). I think $$$Mr. Market$$$ is man enough to make his own decisions. You could PM him to get his attention.

Regards,

Karel

Hey fellas!.... Our good Netherlander friend Karel played the POTW today.... Showing great teamsmanship and fortitude!

Following Karels fine advice, I have sent the HUGE ONE a private message asking him to enter a HOT pick in the contest this week.... NOW!!!!.... If all $$$Mr. Market$$$ fans will laud his Stock picking superority, his HUGE biceps, his MANLY and very hairy good looks.... I'm sure he might bless us with a HUGE pick in the POTW today before 4:00 EST.

WHAT-DO-YOU-SAY guys?!!!! Let's sing out at the top of our lungs! WHO's the greatest stock picker in the UNIVERSE?!!! who? Who? WHO?!!!!

PS.... Might not hurt if he receives about 15 more private messages too.LOL

[spikefader]

Lye, P.M cashmaker and see if he'll throw one up to compete. He's got some ability in buy and hold.