100% return in 4 months!

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I know you didn't ask me but I've been thinking about this for a long time and trying to apply it to my personal portfolio. Wouldn't you know it , Mr.Market's 14 positions with a 7.15% risk per individual stock seems just about right. Put in your stops and possible losses would be miniscule per individual pick and if the picks are outstanding think of the gain/loss ratio. For me there will be no more "killer" losses except for the rare after hours trading that might get me.

billyjoe

Actually I hadn't thought about Ernie's rules BillyJoe. That does sound pretty good (as a general rule-of-thumb). I do think that if $MM$ would time his picks using some solid TA, he'd be way farther ahead. For example I looked at FRGB when he bought it and I thought it (technically) to be a great short.... I was right.... HOWEVER.... now that we know about the pick and WHY (FA) he bought it we can select the perfect entry using our expert TA staff. NBB told me my retracement entry was too early, he was right (the staff here is talented).... NOW however might be the right time?

[spikefader]

Lye,

Great idea here dude. Plenty to think about, not the least of which is nailing down entry rules for the setups you're going to use. Discretion-based entries could work really well I think, pattern based or support/resistance based rules, with sensible risk management.

You correctly nailed the Hail Mary gamblers picks concept. I know several times for the competition I was more reckless with the risk, and I'm sure other have been too. I think one week I submitted picks that I chose because I was trying to spell something like, "Im pla ni ng to wynn" or something silly like that LOL

I think that if we all take this seriously and rule out those penny stock high risk plays, and low volume slippage monsters then some very tradeable and safer realworld selections will be thrown out there for you to trade with some intraday dexterity and emotionally detached nibbleness There are so many clever stock pickers here at this forum that it seems to me pretty hard to mess this up! hehe

I'd actually be interested to see billyjoe's summary sheet for the comp. billyjoe, how about it? Can you post it here for us all to see? I don't think anyone should be/is too proud to see the results. But then again, you're the one looking at them hehe. How are my averages then? PM me the list if you'd prefer. Thanks.

Good luck with this Lye! May the force be with you.

[Lyehopper]

Need Players Monday!!!!

Spike.... Right now the records only show the winners % and don't exactly factor in the losers %. Of course the data is there back in the archives.... Going forward the picks should be more solid though and we will be keeping more accurate records starting this coming week.

Again.... I encourage all traders here to get a super pick together for Monday.... Your Goal is to keep your score GREEN!

[jiesen]

Yep he has a high percentage of 1st place wins with a low participation percentage. Wish he's come on back. Maybe someone could send him a private message and get him to participate again.

BTW Jiesen.... You have the most #1 finishes of all the players dude! YOU ROCK!!!!

Problem is: you also have several last place high percentage losses.lol

To make this portfolio work out you've gotta lay off those "Hail Mary" picks and pick some consistant, high quality 5-10% gainers and forget those 50% bb stocks. You gotta do it for the sake of the GoJi operation dude.... Remember: I need some capitol for that truck load of plants dude.hehehehehe

yeah, you've found my secret. My picks for POTW are screened first for volatility... and I frequently enter picks without doing much homework. I guess I just prefer increasing my # of wins to producing consistent small-percentage gainers.

But if you're going to real money into this, I guess I can lay off the Hail Marys (and the Bloody Marys) and try to get some more solid plays thrown out there, for Goji's sake.

[skiracer]

OK Runner.... That is a bit risky ain't it.... You help me set the criteria dude. What % would you expose to a single security?

Great to hear from you btw.

If you were going to figure on average of 10 players per week, which I think might be high but it's a round number, then divide the 10 players into the total account value. You said you were thinking of using $100000 initial amount so you're talking about $10000 or 10% per position if it were to come to where you were fully invested. I don't think you will end up being fully invested at any given time or week because emotions come into play and there are going to be stocks you like and others that you won't like. That's going to be an important factor because some of the ones you think you like will not work out and some of the ones you hate will surprise you an I'm sure there will be players whose picks you favor and visa versa. And you might end up confused trying to pick what you feel are the most worthy of the play. The one constant will have to be position sizing which will limit the losses in a sense if it goes that way. Spending a specific amount on any given trade will keep things in check regardless of how much you like or don't like the picks. Coupled with some % for a stop loss will limit each loss to a specific amount. If you're only putting up $10000 maximun then you will know that at 7% you can only lose $700 per position if you can honor your stops regardless.
But the hard part is the emotional control of setting your parameters and sticking to them. Also the entries are going to present somewhat of a problem. Do you go in at market prices or wait to see which way the wind blows. The timing of the entry will definitely pose some problems an will require some specific plan or control. When it's a game and doesn't mean anything it's one thing but the minute you put up the moola the scenario changes an emotions come into play an your entries will become very significant as these things gap up and down in the premarket an open and 1/2 hour later have completely changed. Not trying to be negative but this will require alot of serious thought and plannin if you're going to put that much cash at risk.

[Runner]

Lye, I’ve been in cash for a while. I’ve started nibbling a few weeks back. I’ll check current market conditions and determine what to risk. For example now the Indices have had a nice run and this tells me not to load up at this point on the long side. Not sure I’m explaining this properly.

Part of my system in the past was to grab my profits at my 1.618 fib target. Well I would close out the entire position and average profit was about 3-6%. I recently over the last few months changed this method and my profits have soared. I’ve developed some bad habits with day trading that would prevent me from letting my winners run. I would watch every tic and every order and prematurely bail, as the stock would soar 30% with out me. As for Risk and Reward I’d recommend http://www.advancedfutures.com/cbot/5.asp

A great book to study and learn is http://www.iitm.com/

This made me change my approach http://www.iitm.com/Weekly_update/We...htm#tradingtip

I’ve met my goal this year as far as my profit target and really it was with only a handful of trades that did that and the fact that I did not MICRO MANAGE them. MY biggest winners to date are NGAS, OMNI, SWIR, ROC, MTRX, LPX, IRIS

[Lyehopper]

yeah, you've found my secret. My picks for POTW are screened first for volatility... and I frequently enter picks without doing much homework. I guess I just prefer increasing my # of wins to producing consistent small-percentage gainers.

But if you're going to real money into this, I guess I can lay off the Hail Marys (and the Bloody Marys) and try to get some more solid plays thrown out there, for Goji's sake.

Thanks Jiesen.... Ya-DA-Man! We'll keep score on an (average) points system, sort of like NASCAR. You can (technically) win the points in NASCAR and never win a single race. CONSISTANCY, CONSISTANCY, CONSISTANCY!!!!
I'll post the points leaders each week too. Remember PLAY TO WIN!.... but play to ensure you stay green! We need the competitive aspect left in the game to make it successfull. The "competition" is this portfolio's edge!

All this money making "nonsence" dosen't mean we won't be playing a "Jiesen/Spike" style ball-to-the-wall daytraders version from time-to-time for fun.lol

[RL]

Fantastic

Can not believe the posts I have been reading this morning, I knew that with all this knowlage on this sight I would finally would make some cash. Lye love It but agree with Doug 5% tough to get. I for one would be happy for 5% compounded monthly.

[IIC]

5% weekly "compounded" would be over 1100% a yr...Heck, If I could do that I'd retire next year...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

If you were going to figure on average of 10 players per week, which I think might be high but it's a round number, then divide the 10 players into the total account value. You said you were thinking of using $100000 initial amount so you're talking about $10000 or 10% per position if it were to come to where you were fully invested. I don't think you will end up being fully invested at any given time or week because emotions come into play and there are going to be stocks you like and others that you won't like. That's going to be an important factor because some of the ones you think you like will not work out and some of the ones you hate will surprise you an I'm sure there will be players whose picks you favor and visa versa. And you might end up confused trying to pick what you feel are the most worthy of the play. The one constant will have to be position sizing which will limit the losses in a sense if it goes that way. Spending a specific amount on any given trade will keep things in check regardless of how much you like or don't like the picks. Coupled with some % for a stop loss will limit each loss to a specific amount. If you're only putting up $10000 maximun then you will know that at 7% you can only lose $700 per position if you can honor your stops regardless.
But the hard part is the emotional control of setting your parameters and sticking to them. Also the entries are going to present somewhat of a problem. Do you go in at market prices or wait to see which way the wind blows. The timing of the entry will definitely pose some problems an will require some specific plan or control. When it's a game and doesn't mean anything it's one thing but the minute you put up the moola the scenario changes an emotions come into play an your entries will become very significant as these things gap up and down in the premarket an open and 1/2 hour later have completely changed. Not trying to be negative but this will require alot of serious thought and plannin if you're going to put that much cash at risk.

No doubt.... Great post btw.... Management of the portfolio is gonna be hard work and require alot of data be kept up with. But anything worthwhile takes effort and time, Right Ski?

I'll take all the suggestions offered and compile some solid guidelines for investing the funds. It'll take a few weeks before I'm totally up to speed and the plan is solid.

[Lyehopper]

Might happen sooner than you think!

5% weekly "compounded" would be over 1100% a yr...Heck, If I could do that I'd retire next year...Doug(IIC)

Stick around Doug.... AND keep those hot picks comming!

[Lyehopper]

You're heads in a rut Ray....

Can not believe the posts I have been reading this morning, I knew that with all this knowlage on this sight I would finally would make some cash. Lye love It but agree with Doug 5% tough to get. I for one would be happy for 5% compounded monthly.

Change your paradigm dude.... All fund managers hire a staff to help pick winning stocks. But those staff members (although highly educated) are all just pointy headed necktie wearing MBA type geeks. (no offence to any players who fit that description) We are a diverse group of traders driven not by a salary paid to us by a brokerage or hedge fund.... WE ARE DRIVEN BY PASSION! a love of the (investing) "game". Thats the edge! US....ALL OF US.... The $$$Mr Market$$$ regulars who love investing and reaserch, WE ARE THE EDGE!.... And the POTW competition is where we post the "cream" of our efforts so we can show off how good we really are! Now all I need to do is capitalize on that phenomenon with a points system based portfolio and post it for all here to use... It's PERFECT!

[Lyehopper]

Skiracer!

You mentioned equally proportioning the funds by player.... 10 players = 10% each. I disagree.... For example: You are a much better player than me (right now)

Example: If your points score is 150 and mine is 75.... You have proven to deliver much more solid picks than me thus more of the funds percentage goes toward your picks.... A little more risky? A little more exposure to a top players picks?... Yes, but scientifically sound reasoning.... Right? Remember this Skiracer.... We are not communists here.... hehehehe

[Karel]

While this might be fun, I doubt the practical value. And as IIC mentions: 5% per week is hardly realistic... I am not a 5% per week investor, not even a 2% per week investor. I am a laid back investor, watching with interest threads with intraday entries and exits, but those are not for me. Generally, I'll wait until one of my limit trades is triggered, and then I wake up. Kind a like fishing with a bell. Mr. Market just goes out and plays golf, and doesn't even dream of using a bell. Now there is laid back for you.

My personal aim is rather in the 5% per quarter ballpark. That is more realistic for my style of investing. And I am not a good stock picker. The Mr. Market Method made me a more confident (and successful) stock picker, but that is as far as it goes.

I am just the guy with the oil can and the dirty piece of cloth who tries to keep this website running smoothly.

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

No you missed my point. I was just using an arbitrary number such as 10 to show what I was talking about. I would divide the total funding in a specific number of segments, the 10 was for if there were 10 players each week, but that number could be any number that you are comfortable with. I wouldn't think that putting up 30% into any one position, regardless of how strong you felt about it, would be sensible so I thought that 10% per position might be more feasible. If there were 10 players each week I don't think you would feel comfortable putting up a full position with each pick either because you will certainly feel better about some players and their picks than others. So try to find a reasonable % to put into each position regardless of the stocks price and play as many of the picks as you feel confident with or like to the extent to do so. My feelings are that you have to set a specific sizing or money amount that you will spend on each position. The $100000/10 positions was just an example. 10 % seems reasonable to me but it's your money and you should do what is good for you. I just think that a plan and limit per full position is the way to go.
Lye, I hope you do become extremely successful at this but I have been at it for 30 years or so and lost more than most people will accumulate over those years between gambling and investing. What Spike an I have been saying about a specific plan and discipline is the only true path to Nirvana. It took me along time to evolve into that an you're lucky to be getting the info early on an for free.