Lyehopper's Roundup....

[Rob]

Dang It!

Here are my closed and open "featured" trades....

Dang it! When I set the page for the closed trades to have a maximum loss of 100% on a long position, I obviously forgot to do the same on the page for the open positions! I'll have to repair it and send you another one. It's always somethin'.

[skiracer]

Dang it! When I set the page for the closed trades to have a maximum loss of 100% on a long position, I obviously forgot to do the same on the page for the open positions! I'll have to repair it and send you another one. It's always somethin'.

When you deal in annualized returns aren't you in a sense counting two things before the fact. The first is that you are assuming that you are going to continue to do as well as you have up to this point, which is purely conjecture and not based on anything factual and second you might be counting your money before you leave the table. I see people talking about it all the time in effect to make their average gains or losses to date, which is the only reality, look better by projecting them out on the same curve to the end of the year. None of us know what the end of the year results are going to be today or three months from now or at the end of the year until we get there an to annualize these returns out that far at this point is fun an a great goal to shoot for but unrealistic in the assumption that it will end up that way. Any sharp bookmaker would be happy to give anyone a price on them realizing those gains over the remainder of the year.

You've had a great period to date but the present open positions at this point indicate what I am talking about. Not to say that they couldn't go off, which I'm sure you're expecting them to do, but to maintain a 54.56% annualized gain is quite a feat to maintain over the remainder of the year.

It's strange that you never see an average annualized loss percentage when an individual is down X percentage points about 5 months into the year. No one ever says that I expect to lose this much if I continue to pick the shit that I have been trading the remainder of the year.

These annualized gain projections are a pet peeve, did I just say that, of mine an I everytime I find myself counting my gains or money before I leave the table the worm seems to find a way to turn on me. I guess that's my penance for great health, wealth, and looks.

I want everyone here to do well an end up in the black at the end of the year but I would venture to say that no one here on this board will end up this year with a gain of 50% or more overall for the entire year. And by that I mean 50% more than what they started the year with in their trading accounts in simple unadulterated mathematical terms.

[Lyehopper]

......to annualize these returns out that far at this point is fun an a great goal to shoot for.....

I agree....lol

It's strange that you never see an average annualized loss percentage when an individual is down X percentage points about 5 months into the year. No one ever says that I expect to lose this much if I continue to pick the shit that I have been trading the remainder of the year.

You shall see just that in my thread.... My "featured picks" (just like $$MM$$'s) are HUUUUGLY transparent.

These annualized gain projections are a pet peeve

Is that like a pet rock?....jejeje.... Hey Ski! Here's why I like annualized returns.... It's a snapshot into how quickly the qain was realized. look at my pick FUEL for example. I'm only down a little over -3%.... but the trade is young.... thus my annualized loss is HUUUUGE! over -240%!!!!.... It's a two edged sword dude.... Simply put, I think it's fun to look at the annualized return, I like fun things and that's why I included it in my stats.

[IIC]

I want everyone here to do well an end up in the black at the end of the year but I would venture to say that no one here on this board will end up this year with a gain of 50% or more overall for the entire year. And by that I mean 50% more than what they started the year with in their trading accounts in simple unadulterated mathematical terms.

Why would you think that?...After the first month of the year it looked like it was going to be pretty easy...But now I'm not up as much as I was at the end of January so I might not make it myself this year...But I know people who are already up over 50% YTD.

Personally, I am still confident that I will earn over 50% if I keep the errors to a minimum...Of course that's always a big "If"

Back in 2003 I was up 56% near the end of September...Then all hell broke loose as you might recall...I made a conscious decision that I would hold everything unless I lost 1/2 of my profits...Not a very smart decision...But I stuck to my plan and by the end of Sept. I was in cash and was up only 27% YTD...But I came back and had a very good 3 months...Ended the year +68%...So it's possible...

Let's take Mickey for example...As I recall he actually owns BWNG...Now I don't know what he actually paid for it and I don't know what % of his portfolio is in it...but if he backed up the truck he should be up way over 50% YTD.

Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

Why would you think that?...After the first month of the year it looked like it was going to be pretty easy...But now I'm not up as much as I was at the end of January so I might not make it myself this year...But I know people who are already up over 50% YTD.

Personally, I am still confident that I will earn over 50% if I keep the errors to a minimum...Of course that's always a big "If"

Back in 2003 I was up 56% near the end of September...Then all hell broke loose as you might recall...I made a conscious decision that I would hold everything unless I lost 1/2 of my profits...Not a very smart decision...But I stuck to my plan and by the end of Sept. I was in cash and was up only 27% YTD...But I came back and had a very good 3 months...Ended the year +68%...So it's possible...

Let's take Mickey for example...As I recall he actually owns BWNG...Now I don't know what he actually paid for it and I don't know what % of his portfolio is in it...but if he backed up the truck he should be up way over 50% YTD.

Doug(IIC)

I'm not saying it's impossible Lye but for anyone trading on a daily or weekly basis where they are making at least two trades a week I think that a 50 % increase of your trading capital from start of year to end of year is very hard to do an to sustain that % over the course of the year is going to be very hard to do. Some people who will only take about 5-10 positions over the course of the year will have a much better chance of doing it but in my opinion it's very hard to do. If you were to limit all your losses to a miminum of 3-7% would your losing positions outnumber your gainers. It comes down to having a large % of winning positions vs the losing positions even when cutting the losses very short. At cutting the losses off at an average of 6-7%, which is my average and letting the winners run out as best as you can, it becomes almost impossible to post that kind of % gain over the year. Especially if, like me, your making 150 to 175 trades per year.

[IIC]

I'm not saying it's impossible Lye but for anyone trading on a daily or weekly basis where they are making at least two trades a week I think that a 50 % increase of your trading capital from start of year to end of year is very hard to do an to sustain that % over the course of the year is going to be very hard to do. Some people who will only take about 5-10 positions over the course of the year will have a much better chance of doing it but in my opinion it's very hard to do. If you were to limit all your losses to a miminum of 3-7% would your losing positions outnumber your gainers. It comes down to having a large % of winning positions vs the losing positions even when cutting the losses very short. At cutting the losses off at an average of 6-7%, which is my average and letting the winners run out as best as you can, it becomes almost impossible to post that kind of % gain over the year. Especially if, like me, your making 150 to 175 trades per year.

Now how could you get me confused w/ Lye???

I didn't say it was easy to make over 50%...But w/ 1700+ members here I would think there would at least be a few.

[DSteckler]

How can an annualized loss on any stock be worse than 100%? The most you can lose (non-margined, excluding commissions) is 100% of your investment.

[IIC]

How can an annualized loss on any stock be worse than 100%? The most you can lose (non-margined, excluding commissions) is 100% of your investment.

It's Southern Math

[Rob]

How can an annualized loss on any stock be worse than 100%? The most you can lose (non-margined, excluding commissions) is 100% of your investment.

That's my point, where a long position is concerned, and that's why I sent Lye a corrected spreadsheet. It is possible, however, to lose more than 100% on a short position, as I've already explained.

[Lyehopper]

It's Southern Math

Which is not to be confused with redneck math.... "Pie are not square. Pie are round. Cornbread are square." ....

[Rob]

Pie Are Sometimes Square

Which is not to be confused with redneck math.... "Pie are not square. Pie are round. Cornbread are square." ....

LOL ... When I lived in So. Cal., "swap meet" country, one of my favorite places to eat pizza was a place on Ventura Blvd. called "Barone's." I don't know whether it's still there or not, but they made their pizza pies in a big, square pan—well, rectangular anyway. Give me a Barone's sausage, pepperoni, and onion pizza, a bottle or two of good, stout ale, and I'm in hog heaven.

[Lyehopper]

LOL ... When I lived in So. Cal., "swap meet" country, one of my favorite places to eat pizza was a place on Ventura Blvd. called "Barone's." I don't know whether it's still there or not, but they made their pizza pies in a big, square pan—well, rectangular anyway. Give me a Barone's sausage, pepperoni, and onion pizza, a bottle or two of good, stout ale, and I'm in hog heaven.

I'm with you there! Nothin' like a really good dish pizza pie.... When ever Mrs Lye and me go to "the windy city" we always go to "the" Origional Pizzeria Uno downtown. There are these old ladies in the back making these greasy, perfect deep dish pizzas (I think they make em round). I intentially skip breakfast and wait till about 2:00 in the afternoon (I like to be so hungry that I'm a little dizzy) to go there and eat the pizza for lunch.... MAN!!!! it's GOOOOOD!

[Rob]

This Week?

LOL!!!!.... Did I forget that?.... How about this week dude!?

See Skiracer and Ray Long!!!! you two ain't the only ones I've left hangin'.... Sometimes ol Lye needs a gentle reminder.jejeje

This week, Wednesday or Thursday works for me, although I have a suspicion Thursday may not be good for you. BTW, it doesn't really have to be Frankie Rowland's. My Friday and my Saturday this week are already dedicated to two graduation affairs.

[Lyehopper]

BTW, it doesn't really have to be Frankie Rowland's. .

How about Pizza?....LOL!!!! Let me check with Mrs Lye and see how her week looks.

[Lyehopper]

PARL should report any day....

Watch.... PARL and FUEL.... Both up nicely today.jeje

ACTU is primmed to pop....

ECOL still strong too.... I still have a position in real life but I wish I had held it in this portfolio.... oh well....