Peanut's Potent Plethora of Profit

[peanuts]

With today's oil discovery announcement that would effectively double DVN's reserves, I wouldn't think there's much downside in that stock right now. You fortunately got your 2% on the short trade!

I think that the price of oil will drop. Moreso when the wells are pumping oil to our refiners. DVN jumped too fast.

These new oil finds won't be operational until 2010... DVN share price will not continue to go up in a straight line. I'll look to continue shorting it if it does make wild moves like yesterday. I just got a taste.

[Lyehopper]

Today makes me want to short EVERYTHING!!!! that was so much fun!

Did you see what steel did today? Man, it is really moving. My index was up over 2% for the day

Steel will be a good short later on. I was guessing the fall of this year but it might take a little longer. I've got "my ears on" for signs of inventory glut. It'll happen, it always does.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=1289&page=70

[peanuts]

Steel will be a good short later on. I was guessing the fall of this year but it might take a little longer. I've got "my ears on" for signs of inventory glut. It'll happen, it always does.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showth...t=1289&page=70

Here's a chart of how my steel index has done so far this year. The "price paid" is the opening price on the first trading day of the year, so the data is from Jan 3, 2006 to Sept 5, 2006. Impressive 20% performance, so far this year:

From all the conversations that I've had and the presentations which I have attended, I would not speculate on an inventory glut anytime soon. They have learned the lessons from the past. Steel companies are working with one another regarding supply, so it has become mutually benefitial for them to control inventories. Prior to this, you would see inventory gluts and then the steel companies cutting each other's throats to get the products off their hands. They have seen from the past, that this cannot continue if the steel industry in the US is going to thrive.

I would expect to see inventory problems with Steel near the end of the cycle. We still have 2 years left to this cycle. Steel continue to show high demand.

[Lyehopper]

I would expect to see inventory problems with Steel near the end of the cycle. We still have 2 years left to this cycle. Steel continue to show high demand.

That's the key here.... watch demand..... I hope you're right about the two year thing.

[peanuts]

initiated a position in SWHC, 9.97
gambling on a very small position in BTJ...

I scaled out of SWHC today, at $10.51 for 5.4%, and moved a stop to breakeven on the rest of the shares. SWHC should report outstanding Q results tomorrow or today, but with the recent craziness that I've been witnessing after supposed good Q reports from other companies, I don't want to go into this report holding a full position... in case something really bad happens.

I don't think something bad will happen, so this is my only way to play this for now. I will not short any shares of SWHC. If trading goes well after the report, I will increase to a larger position than what I just had. This company is cheap!

[peanuts]

That's the key here.... watch demand..... I hope you're right about the two year thing.

In 2008, Beijing will host the Olympics. The amount of infrastructure and new buildings going up thoughout the country are going to continue to increase until 2008. China wants to prove to the rest of the world that they are coming out of their 3rd world status, are not as communistic as some people perceive, and to prove their strength as a world power. Up to that point, the internal steelmaking capacity will be sufficient to supply the demands by the Chinese government to put up all these new roads, stadiums, theaters, high rises, bridges, dams, etc, etc, etc... After the 2008 games, China will have to scale down their expansion, and THAT's when you will begin to see inventory builds of steel products in the US. THAT's when prices will plummet. THAT's when you short steel.

Right now, the industry is consolidating- Mittal buying Arcelor and ISG, R.E.P. being bought, Gerdau Ameristeel buying mini mills as fast as Nucor is... not a good time to short.

A long term play on steel companies would be to find one on the west coast that is solely a rolling operation- importing slabs from China, cold rolling them, treating them, and then selling them throughout North America... this type of company will be the best LT (3+ years) play in Steel. For now, nearly any steel company that you touch will do you right. But hey, that's just my little ol' opinion. I could be completely wrong.

btw: China currently has 52% of the WORLD's steelmaking capacity!

[Lyehopper]

Up to that point, the internal steelmaking capacity will be sufficient to supply the demands by the Chinese government....

China is not a factor to the Steel Companies I watch.... I think China has ample Mfg capacity to make their own steel too. China has driven up the worldwide scrap market.... but they have now stockpiled enough scrap to last 30 years!.... Scrap prices are cooling now btw....

So when domestic (USA) demand falls off North American Steel producers will suffer as inventories build and production is cut. Steel is a simple commodity driven by supply and demand. Hopefully it will be some time before (domestic) demand falls off hard.... But keep an eye on inventories dude (watch the Service Centers too as they will give the early signal).... When the street sees them (inventories) rise, the short sellers will be all over these Basic Steel stocks like they are on the Oil Refiners right now. btw, Check out the gap down in these refiners today.

[peanuts]

Earnings mover + TA timing

This is for companies that have posted recent quarterly or yearly reports that show vast improvements from the previous year....

I've been waiting for this sucker to pull back for a while. I believe that it is done and now is a great time for me to long on GMRK.

I began a position at $30.70 today. I'm hoping that they will get in on this new gulf of mexico oil field that will be developed by 2010.

[peanuts]

China is not a factor to the Steel Companies I watch.... I think China has ample Mfg capacity to make their own steel too. China has driven up the worldwide scrap market.... but they have now stockpiled enough scrap to last 30 years!.... Scrap prices are cooling now btw....

So when domestic (USA) demand falls off North American Steel producers will suffer as inventories build and production is cut. Steel is a simple commodity driven by supply and demand. Hopefully it will be some time before (domestic) demand falls off hard.... But keep an eye on inventories dude (watch the Service Centers too as they will give the early signal).... When the street sees them (inventories) rise, the short sellers will be all over these Basic Steel stocks like they are on the Oil Refiners right now. btw, Check out the gap down in these refiners today.

When China stops growing, what do you think they will do with their steelmaking capacity? Extra supply from China, whether US demand stays flat or decreases, will drive down prices to a point where US steelmakers can't compete. That cycle will begin when China slows down after the olympics... that's why I said 2 years, that's why I mentioned China. I'm sure that China has nothing to do with your stocks today, but someday China will affect them.

Did you see what DVN did? I should have held my short longer!

[peanuts]

With today's oil discovery announcement that would effectively double DVN's reserves, I wouldn't think there's much downside in that stock right now. You fortunately got your 2% on the short trade!

Park,

Shorting is fun. Today, I should have kept enjoying myself.

[DSteckler]

Park,

Shorting is fun.

Until the day the market moves sharply higher. Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back, Peanuts.

[skiracer]

Park,

Shorting is fun. Today, I should have kept enjoying myself.

Peanuts,
I really do hope you make a million bucks which ever way you trade. I don't know how much experience you have shorting stocks but I don't think you have ever been caught in a real short squeeze with a stock, been caught away from the screen, or without a stop in place on one of your short positions when it turns up in a blast but overconfidence when shorting can and will be problematic. Don't let your guard down or your exhuberance overwhelm your better judgement. BTW, proclaiming that, "shorting is fun" sounds kind of like kindergarten to people that are serious about all of this. I'm sure you don't want to be taken like that.

[peanuts]

DSteckler and Skiracer,

It was a great short play, dudes! Why are you jagging me?

If someone wants to consider my trades and posts as child's play, then they can go ahead and miss out on all the fun profiteering with me. I'll continue being myself and proclaiming that I find a certain bit of fun in trading stocks.

By the way, just for shits and giggles:

Peanuts latest posted plays (all since mid July)-
SWHC 5.4%, 3 days
DVN, 2%, 1 day
BTJ, 12.4%, 3 days
JDSU, 4.6% 1 day
JST, 2.59%, 12 days
IDWK, 4.4%, 3 days
HOKU, 24%, 2 days
ALDA, 6%, 1 day
NGA (short), 2.5%, 1 day
and others...

not to mention that I have also stated that I have an open positions with MVCO +1.8%, USLM +16%, CADA +3%, LOGC +3%, and TIII -21.6%

And all of this is in my trading account. I'll pat myself on my back with both arms, if I feel the need to do so. I have been on the right side of a lot of trades, and I have posted them all right here. Go back and look.

And since I'm bored, let's do a quick and generic experiment. Starting with the 1st trade (NGA short) and using $1000 as the initial amount, let's see what kind of return someone could have made if they traded the way that I did:

NGA, $1000, 2.5%, 1 day = $1025 end of 1 day
ALDA, $1025, 6%, 1 day = $1086.50 end of 2 days
HOKU, $1086.50, 24%, 2 days = $1347.26 end of 4 days
IDWK, $1347.26, 4.4%, 3 days = $1406.54 end of 7 days
JST, $1406.54, 2.59%, 12 days = $1442.97 end of 19 days
JDSU, $1442.97, 4.6%, 1 days = $1509.34 end of 20 days
BTJ, $1509.34, 12.4%, 3 days = $1696.50 end of 23 days
DVN, $1696.50, 2%, 1 day = $1730.43 end of 24 days
SWHC, $1730.43, 5.4%, 3 days = $1823.88 end of 27 days

So let's look to see whether I SHOULD be patting myself on the back... hmmm..... that's 73% in 27 days... that's an annualized return of, oh my gosh, 877% !!!!

Why didn't you tell me, "WAY TO GO PEANUTS!!!! YOU ARE HUGE, DUDE, HUGE!!!! YOU MADE ANOTHER GREAT TRADE" ???

I would have liked that...

[Lyehopper]

I'm sure that China has nothing to do with your stocks today, but someday China will affect them.

I didn't say that China has nothing to do with my "stocks" nor did I imply that I didn't think that China affects, or will ever effect the stock market.... You need to read my post again dude.

I guess where our thoughts differ is.... I think Basic (domestic) Steel producers (that I watch) will be ripe to short sell before 2008 (maybe in a few months) and it will be due to slower (domestic) demand and increased inventories.... China will have little to do with the slide.... After 2008? Who knows? I'm not lookin' out that far right now....

[skiracer]

DSteckler and Skiracer,

It was a great short play, dudes! Why are you jagging me?

If someone wants to consider my trades and posts as child's play, then they can go ahead and miss out on all the fun profiteering with me. I'll continue being myself and proclaiming that I find a certain bit of fun in trading stocks.

By the way, just for shits and giggles:

Peanuts latest posted plays (all since mid July)-
SWHC 5.4%, 3 days
DVN, 2%, 1 day
BTJ, 12.4%, 3 days
JDSU, 4.6% 1 day
JST, 2.59%, 12 days
IDWK, 4.4%, 3 days
HOKU, 24%, 2 days
ALDA, 6%, 1 day
NGA (short), 2.5%, 1 day
and others...

not to mention that I have also stated that I have an open positions with MVCO +1.8%, USLM +16%, CADA +3%, LOGC +3%, and TIII -21.6%

And all of this is in my trading account. I'll pat myself on my back with both arms, if I feel the need to do so. I have been on the right side of a lot of trades, and I have posted them all right here. Go back and look.

And since I'm bored, let's do a quick and generic experiment. Starting with the 1st trade (NGA short) and using $1000 as the initial amount, let's see what kind of return someone could have made if they traded the way that I did:

NGA, $1000, 2.5%, 1 day = $1025 end of 1 day
ALDA, $1025, 6%, 1 day = $1086.50 end of 2 days
HOKU, $1086.50, 24%, 2 days = $1347.26 end of 4 days
IDWK, $1347.26, 4.4%, 3 days = $1406.54 end of 7 days
JST, $1406.54, 2.59%, 12 days = $1442.97 end of 19 days
JDSU, $1442.97, 4.6%, 1 days = $1509.34 end of 20 days
BTJ, $1509.34, 12.4%, 3 days = $1696.50 end of 23 days
DVN, $1696.50, 2%, 1 day = $1730.43 end of 24 days
SWHC, $1730.43, 5.4%, 3 days = $1823.88 end of 27 days

So let's look to see whether I SHOULD be patting myself on the back... hmmm..... that's 73% in 27 days... that's an annualized return of, oh my gosh, 877% !!!!

Why didn't you tell me, "WAY TO GO PEANUTS!!!! YOU ARE HUGE, DUDE, HUGE!!!! YOU MADE ANOTHER GREAT TRADE" ???

I would have liked that...

Normally I would be the first in line to congratulate anyone that makes a decent trade or gains. I love to see everyone do well. It's just that because of your egocentric personality and continous need for affirmation it makes me want to puke. I just can't be around you anymore. You can deceive yourself as much as you want but I'm out.