RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[billyjoe]

I downloaded all the paperwork, but haven't read it yet. What is NAV and how do you calculate 6.7%? Thank you in advance. River

River,
In the case of HQL, the Net Asset Value (NAV) has consistently been quite a bit higher per share than the actual stock price. In the paperwork they sent, the NAV as of April 27 was 13.90 with the actual price per share being 12.97 for a price discount of 6.69%. They will pay 98% of that difference or 6.56% (my mistake on the %) as a premium above closing price on June 1st. They don't expect these numbers to change substantially in the next 15 days. My advisor says there are many more buyers than sellers and recommends holding the shares.

----------------billy

[riverbabe]

Hql

Thanks billy!

[Louetta]

AMRN is up $.35 cents or so after hours after apparently being mentioned on CNBCs Fast Money program indicating a possible $30 target.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43159545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

[riverbabe]

AMRN is up $.35 cents or so after hours after apparently being mentioned on CNBCs Fast Money program indicating a possible $30 target.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43159545?__so...t%7C&par=yahoo

I'm back in and willing to hold a while. How about you?

In and out of OPTR. Locking in profits. Currently 13.48 av., as big a position as I am comfortable with. FDA decision 5/30 (i.e. Memorial Day), meaning Friday 5/27 or Tues. 5/31. Holding thru decision only. Will bail either way.

[Louetta]

I'm back in and willing to hold a while. How about you?

... snip ...

I am. Got some deep in the money AMRN calls. Even the June premiums for things near or out of the money are absurd. Somebody thinks somethings going to happen very soon.

[riverbabe]

Hql - billy

Thanks billy!

Tendered all my shares Monday and asked for $$divi instead of stock. I have an awful lot of other closed end funds, so don't want to keep this one necessarily. Will let you know if they buy the shares.

[riverbabe]

Amrn

I am. Got some deep in the money AMRN calls. Even the June premiums for things near or out of the money are absurd. Somebody thinks somethings going to happen very soon.

Trying not to turn blue. Am patiently waiting too. I like it when the signs say, "somebody knows something."

[Louetta]

Trying not to turn blue. Am patiently waiting too. I like it when the signs say, "somebody knows something."

Not to get too nerdy about the options, the open interest for a June AMRN call at $22 is four times the open interest at $18. Why? It's not a round number or anything. On that bull spread at $22 and $25 I mentioned a while back, that cost $250,000 and they lose every cent if it doesn't get to $22 in 22 days.

Only problem with my theory is, if that spread is based on inside info, buying it is going to be a red flag to the authorities.

[riverbabe]

Not to get too nerdy about the options, the open interest for a June AMRN call at $22 is four times the open interest at $18. Why? It's not a round number or anything. On that bull spread at $22 and $25 I mentioned a while back, that cost $250,000 and they lose every cent if it doesn't get to $22 in 22 days.

Only problem with my theory is, if that spread is based on inside info, buying it is going to be a red flag to the authorities.

maybe, but will that affect our trades that are not based on anything but a gambler's instinct betting on a good product, a decent spread and a big hope for a good outcome? You and I don't have any insider info. Our trades are pure here. I don't see any repercussions for us. This stock has been in play for a long time based on rumors of a buyout, way back to Jan. 1st and before.

[Louetta]

maybe, but will that affect our trades that are not based on anything but a gambler's instinct betting on a good product, a decent spread and a big hope for a good outcome? You and I don't have any insider info. Our trades are pure here. I don't see any repercussions for us. This stock has been in play for a long time based on rumors of a buyout, way back to Jan. 1st and before.

No, I didn't mean us.

I thought CORT was beginning to look more interesting. Started to move up a smidge this week, 3 1/2 year high, some volume, a brokerage recommendation, some near-term milestones on the horizon.

[billyjoe]

Hql

Tendered all my shares Monday and asked for $$divi instead of stock. I have an awful lot of other closed end funds, so don't want to keep this one necessarily. Will let you know if they buy the shares.

River,
Did it work out ok for you? I see they were oversubscribed and prorated the buyback at about 2/3 of shares offered. I'm holding on for the long haul. Maybe I'll luck out like a friend of mines father. He worked for many years in a family owned meat packing plant at a time when employees could get stock in the company. Eventually the family bought all the shares back except the friend and one other old timer never sold. He's about 80 now and gets 25,000 in dividends each year and told his kids to never sell even after he's gone.

---------------billy

[riverbabe]

billy

River,
Did it work out ok for you? I see they were oversubscribed and prorated the buyback at about 2/3 of shares offered. I'm holding on for the long haul. Maybe I'll luck out like a friend of mines father. He worked for many years in a family owned meat packing plant at a time when employees could get stock in the company. Eventually the family bought all the shares back except the friend and one other old timer never sold. He's about 80 now and gets 25,000 in dividends each year and told his kids to never sell even after he's gone.

---------------billy

Meant to get back to you sooner, sorry. Yes, they took 67.5% of my shares. I made 0.37 for each, or 2.85% plus the 6+% divi. Will wait for the next divi announcement (and bounce?) to sell remainder. Thank you for this "free money" tip, good friend.

[riverbabe]

Amrn

Ouch. wonder what this does for that huge June calls buyer? Dont you just love biotech stocks? Not!!!

Some current tweets:

adamfeuersteinAdam Feuerstein
$AMRN CEO on Bloomberg: Deal may not happen until later this year or next year.
59 minutes ago

BioRunUpBioRunUp
Wow $AMRN... I added another 1k in my IRA @ $14.55 // RT @MicrocapTrader: CEO saying no suitors for ~6mo
58 minutes ago

BioRunUpTradesBioRunUp Trades
Mark bought 1k $AMRN on dip @ $14.55. CEO says buyout may not happen for a year. I still think this bounces. Short term hold on bounce.
55 minutes ago

adamfeuersteinAdam Feuerstein
Just a suggestion... $AMRN CEO takes a short sabbatical from verbal communication.
46 minutes ago

BioRunUpBioRunUp
I'd like to thank CEO of $AMRN. Last week I didnt think I would get to see AMRN at $16 again, let alone $14. IRA trade, so I can be patient
39 minutes ago

BioRunUpBioRunUp
Im only 30 so Im planning on an $AMRN buy out/ FDA approval before I retire. Heck, if I dont get back on P90X I will be using AMR101
36 minutes ago

adamfeuersteinAdam Feuerstein
MT @mrygler: I don't think it's a problem of communication...they aren't seeing the offers they (and we) were expecting to see. $AMRN
24 minutes ago

[Louetta]

Interesting stuff. A Motley Fool guy named Hoium posted:

--- In an interview, Joseph Zakrzewski [AMRN CEO] indicated he was in no rush to reach a deal with a potential buyer. Traders must have interpreted that to mean a deal would never happen, and sold as fast as they could, sending volume through the roof and shares tumbling. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. What Zakrzewski actually said was: "If you offer me $15 a share, I am waiting. If you offer $30, $40, $100 it's a different story. There is a lot that can happen and the situation is very fluid." ---

Earlier I read the CEO said he'd rather have a partner than get bought out.

Who knows. Figured I'd roll my June calls out to September. Tough week for me, got beaten up on CORT too.

[riverbabe]

Medtronic

Watch for possible repercussions to Medtronic's stock (MDT).

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/29/business/29spine.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha25