RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

[billyjoe]

River,
Hope you're still holding AFFX. I'm in from 5.26 and doing well. A source that has had an uncanny knack of picking buyout candidates along with non buyout stocks that take off for who knows what reason tells me that after breaking through the 5.50 level, AFFX could be making an extended run. He's buying until it hits 6. I've doubted this unnamed source before and it has cost me a ton.

-------------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
Hope you're still holding AFFX. I'm in from 5.26 and doing well. A source that has had an uncanny knack of picking buyout candidates along with non buyout stocks that take off for who knows what reason tells me that after breaking through the 5.50 level, AFFX could be making an extended run. He's buying until it hits 6. I've doubted this unnamed source before and it has cost me a ton.

-------------billy

no. Bot at 5.33 in January, sold at 4.68 end of March. So NOW it decides to move? Story of my life. I dunno.

[billyjoe]

River et al,
Here's one tied in with biotech and you could call it a baby at 270mil. market cap. H & Q lifesciences healthcare fund, a smallcap fund trading under symbol HQL, has been very good to me for the following reasons.

1. First bought in the 8's last year and reinvesting dividends currently 7.7%

2. Look at the chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...ow=True&time=8

3. Just got Notice of Offer to Purchase for Cash up to 35% of outstanding shares for an approximate premium of 6.69% (98% of NAV value on June 1st)

4. You can still buy shares and sign up to sell before June 1st. Next dividend ex date should be around the same time. I'd call that a double dip for those holding on to shares.

5. current price 12.99

---------------billy

[riverbabe]

River et al,
Here's one tied in with biotech and you could call it a baby at 270mil. market cap. H & Q lifesciences healthcare fund, a smallcap fund trading under symbol HQL, has been very good to me for the following reasons.

1. First bought in the 8's last year and reinvesting dividends currently 7.7%

2. Look at the chart http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...ow=True&time=8

3. Just got Notice of Offer to Purchase for Cash up to 35% of outstanding shares for an approximate premium of 6.69% (98% of NAV value on June 1st)

4. You can still buy shares and sign up to sell before June 1st. Next dividend ex date should be around the same time. I'd call that a double dip for those holding on to shares.

5. current price 12.99

---------------billy

sounds like a great deal for some cash in my IRA. Thanks, billy.

[riverbabe]

Dusa

Here's an update on DUSA

http://biotechinvestmentparadigm.com/?p=1706

[billyjoe]

Update on HQL. They raised div. a penny. So it's now an even 8% with ex-div. date May 20th to be paid June 30th.

------------billy

[riverbabe]

Update on HQL. They raised div. a penny. So it's now an even 8% with ex-div. date May 20th to be paid June 30th.

------------billy

I bought a partial position. Watching for a greater pull back to buy more by May 19th. Thanks again!

[Louetta]

I was reading the following write-up posted on Amazon apparently via optionmonster. Whereas Amarin won't get an up or down decision on their new drug in the timeframe of this option spread it occurred to me that someone is betting on a takeover bid before the 3rd Friday in June. I'm always suspicious that somebody knows something:

"A large option trader is playing the upside in Amarin, thinking that the drug developer has more gas in the tank ...

Today's option trade was a bullish call spread : A block of 4,000 June 22 calls was bought for $0.60 and an equal number of June 25 calls was sold for $0.20. That translates into a net cost of $0.40, with the potential profit of 650 percent if AMRN closes at or above $25 on expiration.

The shares are up 1.36 percent to $17.16 in afternoon trading. Given the amount that AMRN has to appreciate in the next five weeks for the calls to pay off, the investor apparently thinks that an explosive move is possible ..."

[riverbabe]

I was reading the following write-up posted on Amazon apparently via optionmonster. Whereas Amarin won't get an up or down decision on their new drug in the timeframe of this option spread it occurred to me that someone is betting on a takeover bid before the 3rd Friday in June. I'm always suspicious that somebody knows something:

"A large option trader is playing the upside in Amarin, thinking that the drug developer has more gas in the tank ...

Today's option trade was a bullish call spread : A block of 4,000 June 22 calls was bought for $0.60 and an equal number of June 25 calls was sold for $0.20. That translates into a net cost of $0.40, with the potential profit of 650 percent if AMRN closes at or above $25 on expiration.

The shares are up 1.36 percent to $17.16 in afternoon trading. Given the amount that AMRN has to appreciate in the next five weeks for the calls to pay off, the investor apparently thinks that an explosive move is possible ..."

I think you may be on to something! I have been buying back in steadily because the stock just keeps going up on volume and that is a good sign also.

[Louetta]

I think you may be on to something! I have been buying back in steadily because the stock just keeps going up on volume and that is a good sign also.

I bought some $10 June calls. Not going to make me rich but the option premiums are ridiculous. The June $22 call last trade was 77 cents. So a $17 stock has to go up almost $6 in 5 weeks to make any money.

[billyjoe]

Hql

I bought a partial position. Watching for a greater pull back to buy more by May 19th. Thanks again!

River,
I see this as being close to riskless arbitrage. Say you buy 1,000 shares May 19th. Being shareholder of record you get .26/share or $260 . Then if you chose to sell back to the company and get 98% of NAV June 1st, you pocket approx. additional 6.7% or $871 which adds up to $1131 profit on $13000 or 11.49% in 13 days. Unless there's a big price drop in that time period which I don't anticipate due to buyback and increasing div. history.
But, I'm not planning on selling to the company. Would rather take the continuing div. and hope for continued price appreciation.

------------billy

[billyjoe]

HCA and VGHCX

River,
Some of the medical related stocks and funds are finally paying off. Enough so that Beth might be able to keep me out of the poor house. Vanguard's Health fund has gained 53% in little more than 2 years and HCA is up 15.33% since its IPO.

-------I'm still blaming the Frists for pulling most of their shares out of the IPO at the last minute thus limiting what the common man could buy.

-------This from Wikipedia--" In 2005 and 2006 Bill Frist was named one of "the most corrupt members of congress" By Citizens for Responsibility & Ethics in Washington for ethic inquiries stemming from troubles with the FEC for nondisclosure of debts and investigations by the SEC for stock sales potentially based on inside information.

---------Frist may be an asset to society for his accomplishments in medicine. He has performed over 150 heart transplants, but the almighty dollar holds a special place in his heart.

------------billy

[billyjoe]

Endo Pharmaceuticals is a great established pharma. Their move on Monday to buy out Penwest to reduce their royaltay payments and add to their pipeline is a smart move IMHO. So, the question becomes, when is the best time to buy?

The price got a nice boost on the news Monday and hit its 52-week high (26.05) from Dec. 2009 on Tues. But it couldn't hold it because of market conditions yesterday. It pulled back to another resistance point that should act as support now (around 24.96-25.00). (stockcharts is acting squirrely this morning, so I'll try to post an annotated chart. But if I can't, look at the weekly in particular.)

I think the news is priced in now, and from here it will move with the d$%@ market. Keep an eye on the 200. If it breaks it, it should fall dramatically. I'd try for a low-ball bid here. JMHO.

River,
Well whip me with a cat o' nine tails. I forgot all about this discussion. Just looked at the chart and 8/12/10 was about the low for ENDP over the last 9 months. Too many stocks, too little $$. I never bought and now it's looking tempting again.

------------billy

[riverbabe]

River,
I see this as being close to riskless arbitrage. Say you buy 1,000 shares May 19th. Being shareholder of record you get .26/share or $260 . Then if you chose to sell back to the company and get 98% of NAV June 1st, you pocket approx. additional 6.7% or $871 which adds up to $1131 profit on $13000 or 11.49% in 13 days. Unless there's a big price drop in that time period which I don't anticipate due to buyback and increasing div. history.
But, I'm not planning on selling to the company. Would rather take the continuing div. and hope for continued price appreciation.

------------billy

I downloaded all the paperwork, but haven't read it yet. What is NAV and how do you calculate 6.7%? Thank you in advance. River

[riverbabe]

River,
Well whip me with a cat o' nine tails. I forgot all about this discussion. Just looked at the chart and 8/12/10 was about the low for ENDP over the last 9 months. Too many stocks, too little $$. I never bought and now it's looking tempting again.

------------billy

42.13? Good grief. I didn't buy either.